Morning Consult nat. poll: Clinton trails Carson by 2, but leads all other ‘pubs

[Mr. Morden]

Morning Consult national poll, conducted Sept. 24-27:

pdf link

Clinton 43%
Bush 40%

Clinton 44%
Paul 38%

Carson 44%
Clinton 42%

Clinton 45%
Rubio 38%

Clinton 45%
Trump 42%

Clinton 44%
Fiorina 38%

[Skye]

I call bull on that 7-point lead against Rubio.

[King]

Carson's strength needs to stop right now. It's highly embarrassing for this country.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I call bull on that 7-point lead against Rubio.

and Carson leading ... anything.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I'm confused by how the state and national polls seem to be differing.  The state polls seem to collectively suggest that the GOP is up by about 5 points, but the national polls paint a much bleaker picture.  Opposite of 2012?

[Bigby]

Doesn't RCP disregard Morning Consult like they do Gravis?

[The Mikado]

Doesn't RCP disregard Morning Consult like they do Gravis?

Yes, but IIRC the difference is that they disregard Gravis for its bad record and they disregard Morning Consult for its seeming lack of a record.

EDIT: Morning Consult was founded in 2013, so we don't have a good standard to judge their quality by.

[pbrower2a]

Carson is the flavor of the month.

[HillOfANight]

I'm confused by how the state and national polls seem to be differing.  The state polls seem to collectively suggest that the GOP is up by about 5 points, but the national polls paint a much bleaker picture.  Opposite of 2012?

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-07-22/the-polling-paradox-how-to-read-the-numbers

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[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Blue wall is of course NV, Nm, CO, Ia & Pa of course, but without a Bushie, Kasich or Rubio, the map is expanded.

[HillOfANight]

Blue wall is of course NV, Nm, CO, Ia & Pa of course, but without a Bushie, Kasich or Rubio, the map is expanded.

IA seems questionable as part of the wall.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_bush_vs_clinton-4114.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_bush_vs_clinton-3996.html

She's leading in NH, losing in IA. And in 2014, they let in nonmoderate Joni Ernst, while NH denied Scott Brown.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Iowa and Ohio are tipping point races and are winnable. Once she comes up with a running mate, her numbers will come up.

But, look at WI, it is like Iowa and Ohio, she is winning it convincingly.

[JonathanSwift]

In this poll, Carson is ahead of Clinton by 1.88%, while Clinton beats Bush by 2.85%, Trump by 3.89%, Fiorina by 5.77%, Rubio by 6.29%, and Paul by 6.68%. Obama beat Romney by 3.86%. Thus, if we assume a uniform swing from 2012, we get these maps:

Carson vs. Clinton

299-239

Clinton vs. Bush

303-235

Clinton vs. Fiorina/Trump

332-206

Clinton vs. Paul/Rubio

347-191

[ObamaThirdTerm]

So the least qualified Republican is ahead? Lord help us all.