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  WI: Marquette: Clinton/Sanders lead easily
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Author Topic: WI: Marquette: Clinton/Sanders lead easily  (Read 2277 times)
Miles
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« on: September 30, 2015, 12:38:26 pm »

Link coming.

Clinton - 50%
Bush - 38%

Clinton- 48%
Rubio - 40%

Clinton- 50%
Trump - 36%

Sanders - 49%
Bush - 39%

Sanders - 49%
Rubio - 36%

Sanders - 53%
Trump - 34%
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wifikitten
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« Reply #1 on: September 30, 2015, 12:39:14 pm »

Great numbers for Sanders.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: September 30, 2015, 12:39:34 pm »

What a nice poll!
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Miles
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« Reply #3 on: September 30, 2015, 12:43:53 pm »


Certainly there is no arguing with a Marquette poll.
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
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« Reply #4 on: September 30, 2015, 01:41:22 pm »

Is Michigan going to be more competitive than Wisconsin this time around?  Before you say the Michigan poll was junk, 3 in a row of the state have Hillary losing.

I also wish they had polled Walker even though he has dropped out.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5 on: September 30, 2015, 01:55:36 pm »

Is Michigan going to be more competitive than Wisconsin this time around?  Before you say the Michigan poll was junk, 3 in a row of the state have Hillary losing.

I also wish they had polled Walker even though he has dropped out.

Three junk polls are not worth a good one any more than three junk cars are worth a good one.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #6 on: September 30, 2015, 01:58:35 pm »

Is Michigan going to be more competitive than Wisconsin this time around?  Before you say the Michigan poll was junk, 3 in a row of the state have Hillary losing.

I also wish they had polled Walker even though he has dropped out.

All 3 of those Michigan polls are junk, they always are.
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #7 on: September 30, 2015, 02:18:46 pm »

BUT I THOUGHT IT'S GOING TO BE A SWING STATE???!! Sad
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Skye
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« Reply #8 on: September 30, 2015, 02:19:25 pm »

Can't argue against Marquette. Still, I would have thought Republicans were in better shape here.
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○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└
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« Reply #9 on: September 30, 2015, 02:40:23 pm »

Sanders definitely does better overall than Hillary. He's 5 points better against Rubio and Trump, and 2 points worse against Bush.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #10 on: September 30, 2015, 03:05:44 pm »

Is it just me, or does Wisconsin seem to be trending pretty strongly D in this election? That's not to say it absolutely won't be competitive, but it seems like its PVI will go from about D+2 to at least D+4 or 5.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #11 on: September 30, 2015, 04:16:18 pm »

Is Michigan going to be more competitive than Wisconsin this time around?  Before you say the Michigan poll was junk, 3 in a row of the state have Hillary losing.

I also wish they had polled Walker even though he has dropped out.

Three junk polls are not worth a good one any more than three junk cars are worth a good one.

Another pbrower analogy for the ages.  Tongue
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Stockdale for Veep
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« Reply #12 on: September 30, 2015, 04:23:51 pm »

The first positive thing done by Governor Sharkeyes.

Barring an economic disaster, WI will be called within 10 minutes of closing.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #13 on: September 30, 2015, 06:30:40 pm »



Just for old times' sake:

Quote
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https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2015/09/30/marquette-law-school-poll-finds-walker-job-approval-at-37-percent-following-presidential-run/
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Corbyn is a Strasserist
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« Reply #14 on: September 30, 2015, 06:32:15 pm »

Wisconsin is the kind of state where Sanders is set up to do very well. Heavily white, with a Democratic party that tilts to the left of the national party.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #15 on: October 01, 2015, 04:25:51 am »

The first positive thing done by Governor Sharkeyes.

Barring an economic disaster, WI will be called within 10 minutes of closing.

It seems almost like the electorate has given up on Republicans. All those swing voters seem to be in the Democratic camp now, against Walker, against the legislature, etc.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #16 on: October 01, 2015, 07:28:14 am »

Nice, nice.

It's weird how with Bush but Sanders is doing better with Rubio and Trump.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #17 on: October 01, 2015, 08:27:20 am »

Link here:

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2015/09/30/marquette-law-school-poll-finds-walker-job-approval-at-37-percent-following-presidential-run/

...Scott Walker has become so unpopular in Wisconsin that few other than strongly-partisan Republicans could vote for him again, whether for Governor or President.  He could lose Wisconsin almost as badly as Goldwater did to LBJ in 1964 (62-38); he has become that toxic.
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Bismarck
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« Reply #18 on: October 01, 2015, 09:33:25 am »

Are these poll numbers largely reflective of disaproval with the staye government? There is no other explanation for why the dems are ahead so much.
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Suburban Cincinnati Soccer Moms for Beshear
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« Reply #19 on: October 01, 2015, 03:33:38 pm »

Is it just me, or does Wisconsin seem to be trending pretty strongly D in this election? That's not to say it absolutely won't be competitive, but it seems like its PVI will go from about D+2 to at least D+4 or 5.

I would attribute some of that to Paul Ryan being VP in 2012. He was the 'deer hunter Catholic' and a home state guy. He probably swung WI a few points to the right because of that, but not enough to win.
Scott Walker shows what will happen if Republicans win the presidency in 2016. That state is rightly rejecting such lunacy.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #20 on: October 01, 2015, 04:05:04 pm »

Are these poll numbers largely reflective of disaproval with the staye government? There is no other explanation for why the dems are ahead so much.

I have seen indications that the Governor of Indiana is very unpopular. Republicans have clearly gone too far in Wisconsin. Indiana? Yes, it is possible to go too far to the Right in Indiana.   
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Xing
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« Reply #21 on: October 01, 2015, 05:21:48 pm »

Current polling isn't adding up. I could see WI being slightly more Democratic than MI, but there's no way that WI is Safe D, while MI is a Toss-Up (If you buy all of the polls, you have to believe that IA is Likely R, as well.) I doubt that Republicans will come super close to winning WI, but if Democrats are up by this much, they should be doing at least as well as Obama '12 in most other states.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #22 on: October 02, 2015, 03:27:16 am »

Current polling isn't adding up. I could see WI being slightly more Democratic than MI, but there's no way that WI is Safe D, while MI is a Toss-Up (If you buy all of the polls, you have to believe that IA is Likely R, as well.) I doubt that Republicans will come super close to winning WI, but if Democrats are up by this much, they should be doing at least as well as Obama '12 in most other states.

Iowa and Wisconsin usually vote together. The last exception involved both states being so close to the margin that they were practically identical. Michigan is basically Wisconsin with more blacks. Of course, neither Iowa nor Michigan has so unpopular an incumbent Republican governor as Scott Walker.

Because of the early caucuses in Iowa, and because until recently Republicans have gotten more attention, Republicans dominate the political discussion in Iowa.  Sure, the state voted for Joni Ernst for the Senate last year -- but she is terribly unpopular.

Polls after the Iowa caucuses will not show the current Republican advantage of constant attention. They will likely either show Iowa going back to its norm or a genuine Republican shift in the states politics.   
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #23 on: October 02, 2015, 07:14:50 am »
« Edited: October 02, 2015, 07:24:54 am by HillOfANight »

Current polling isn't adding up. I could see WI being slightly more Democratic than MI, but there's no way that WI is Safe D, while MI is a Toss-Up

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_rubio_vs_clinton-3778.html
A lot of the "Michigan is close" noise is from Mitchell Research.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/pollsters-shouldnt-take-mulligans/
Nate Silver has noted they consistently poll, but only publish when they get results that they like.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/28/aug-27-michigan-isnt-a-tossup/
Nate Silver noted huge variations between the national polling firms in 2012 (comfortably Obama) and the local pollsters (tie). The local pollsters are GOP leaning and have bad methodologies.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #24 on: October 02, 2015, 09:57:35 am »

Sure, the state voted for Joni Ernst for the Senate last year -- but she is terribly unpopular.
A 46/39 approval rating is not terrible.
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