Current polling isn't adding up. I could see WI being slightly more Democratic than MI, but there's no way that WI is Safe D, while MI is a Toss-Up
A lot of the "Michigan is close" noise is from Mitchell Research.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/pollsters-shouldnt-take-mulligans/Nate Silver has noted they consistently poll, but only publish when they get results that they like.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/28/aug-27-michigan-isnt-a-tossup/Nate Silver noted huge variations between the national polling firms in 2012 (comfortably Obama) and the local pollsters (tie). The local pollsters are GOP leaning and have bad methodologies.
