WI: Marquette: Clinton/Sanders lead easily

[pbrower2a]

Is Michigan going to be more competitive than Wisconsin this time around?  Before you say the Michigan poll was junk, 3 in a row of the state have Hillary losing.

I also wish they had polled Walker even though he has dropped out.

Three junk polls are not worth a good one any more than three junk cars are worth a good one.

[pbrower2a]

Just for old times' sake:

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https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2015/09/30/marquette-law-school-poll-finds-walker-job-approval-at-37-percent-following-presidential-run/

[pbrower2a]

Link here:

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2015/09/30/marquette-law-school-poll-finds-walker-job-approval-at-37-percent-following-presidential-run/

...Scott Walker has become so unpopular in Wisconsin that few other than strongly-partisan Republicans could vote for him again, whether for Governor or President.  He could lose Wisconsin almost as badly as Goldwater did to LBJ in 1964 (62-38); he has become that toxic.

[pbrower2a]

Are these poll numbers largely reflective of disaproval with the staye government? There is no other explanation for why the dems are ahead so much.

I have seen indications that the Governor of Indiana is very unpopular. Republicans have clearly gone too far in Wisconsin. Indiana? Yes, it is possible to go too far to the Right in Indiana.   

[pbrower2a]

Current polling isn't adding up. I could see WI being slightly more Democratic than MI, but there's no way that WI is Safe D, while MI is a Toss-Up (If you buy all of the polls, you have to believe that IA is Likely R, as well.) I doubt that Republicans will come super close to winning WI, but if Democrats are up by this much, they should be doing at least as well as Obama '12 in most other states.

Iowa and Wisconsin usually vote together. The last exception involved both states being so close to the margin that they were practically identical. Michigan is basically Wisconsin with more blacks. Of course, neither Iowa nor Michigan has so unpopular an incumbent Republican governor as Scott Walker.

Because of the early caucuses in Iowa, and because until recently Republicans have gotten more attention, Republicans dominate the political discussion in Iowa.  Sure, the state voted for Joni Ernst for the Senate last year -- but she is terribly unpopular.

Polls after the Iowa caucuses will not show the current Republican advantage of constant attention. They will likely either show Iowa going back to its norm or a genuine Republican shift in the states politics.   

[pbrower2a]

Sure, the state voted for Joni Ernst for the Senate last year --but she is terribly unpopular.

Can we ban this liar yet?

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/joni-ernst/

You are welcome to disagree with my interpretation. You can also accuse me of being a partisan hack. You are also welcome to explain why the poll is invalid or irrelevant, such as its age or that it comes too soon after an election (it is from April).  But if I have a source, and the one thing that it shows is that I am no liar.

I see Chuck Grassley as unstoppable unless his health fails because his approval rating is consistently in the low 50s. Contrast the polls for Pat Toomey which go all over the map.  He is the sort of politician who can win reelection in a swing state in a wave election for the other Party. Joni Ernst? I would definitely not say that ye,  but 2020 is a long way off, is it not?

Because of the early caucuses in Iowa, and because until recently Republicans have gotten more attention, Republicans dominate the political discussion in Iowa. 

Same is true for NH and yet Democrats are far ahead in the polls there.

New Hampshire and Iowa are very different states even if they are swing states.