Where was Bush 41 at same time in '92?

[Gustaf]

I've searched the web and can't seem to find any polls from this time in '92 of Bush 41 versus Clinton.  I'm interested because it seems to me that Bush 43 is in much better shape at this point than his father was.  

It's basically even now, and it seems all the bad news is out.  Death in Iraq, 911 commission, negative books, etc.  Yes, there can be, and probably will be, some unexpected events. But I was wondering if an incumbent president has ever lost an election while being tied or ahead as late as April.  

http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=1255

Clinton was at 26 % at this time, so, Kerry is doing a lot better.

Thanks for the link.  Yes in mid-April Bush was ahead 41-26 over Clinton, but Clinton + Perot actually was ahead of Bush by 10, 51-41.  So really, even though Bush was in the lead, it was clear at that point that he was unpopular.  Bush's 41% was close to the 38% he ended up getting.

Like you said, '92 was a screwy year with Perot in the mix, it's hard to compare that year and now.  What's clear is that people seemed to make their minds up about Clinton at the Democratic convention.  He vaulted out way in front and never looked back.  It will be be interesting to see what the polls look like after this year's conventions.

All I know is that '92 and '88 and 00' is not 04'

Agreed, no two elections are exactly the same, times change, issues change, demographics change.  But we can still learn a lot about what might happen by looking at the past.  I'm still trying to figure out which election this one will be closest too.

BTW, I think Perot would have been a terrible president because he was anti-NAFTA.  I detest Bill Clinton but give him credit for supporting NAFTA.  The econony would not have boomed the way it did without free trade fueling it.

It depends on what way one means 'being closest to'. The last time a president was reelected in a close election was Woodrow Wilson in 1916...

I think it will be somewhat similar to 1988, but with Kerry being closer in the popular vote and MUCH closer in the EC.

[Gustaf]

I'm convinced that 2004 will be like... 2004

That's going out on a limb...

[Gustaf]

I'm convinced that 2004 will be like... 2004

That's the most accurate post on this thread.  We all have a habit of classifying new phenomena according to old rules.  It's a bad habit.

Well, it's the only way by which we can predict anything, no?

[Gustaf]

Thomas Alva Edison was a great inventor, credited with the light bulb and the 'gramophone' among other things.  He didn't finish high school.  His teachers thought he was a dunce.  It is wonderful, for all of us, that he didn't subcribe to those strict rules his teachers tried to teach him.  

Predictions should come from clarivoyance, if you're so endowed.  If you are not clarivoyant, your predictions are mostly just for fun.  

Well...yes, but admitting that makes it much less fun...we all need a lie to live on.