Brazil Municipal Elections, October 2016

[buritobr]

Ibope (September 10th-13th)

São Paulo
Celso Russomano (PRB) 30%
Marta (PMDB) 20%
João Doria (PSDB) 17%
Fernando Haddad (PT) 9%
Luiza Erundina (PSOL) 5%

Rio de Janeiro
Marcelo Crivella (PRB) 31%
Marcelo Freixo (PSOL) 9%
Pedro Paulo (PMDB) 9%
Flávio Bolsonaro (PSC) 8%
Jandira Feghali (PCdoB) 8%
Índio da Costa (PSD) 7%
Osorio (PSDB) 3%
Alessandro Molon (REDE) 1%

[buritobr]

Datafolha (september 21st)

São Paulo
João Dória (PSDB) 25%
Celso Russomano (PRB) 22%
Marta (PMDB) 20%
Fernando Haddad (PT) 10%
Luiza Erundina (PSOL) 5%

Rio de Janeiro
Marcelo Crivella (PRB) 31%
Marcelo Freixo (PSOL) 10%
Jandira Feghali (PCdoB) 9%
Pedro Paulo (PMDB) 9%
Flávio Bolsonaro (PSC) 7%
Índio da Costa (PSD) 6%
Carlos Osório (PSDB) 4%
Alessandro Molon (REDE) 2%

Belo Horizonte
João Leite (PSDB) 33%
Alexandre Kalil (PHS) 21%
Délio Malheiros (PSD) 6%
Reginaldo Lopes (PT) 4%

Recife
Geraldo Júlio (PSB) 38%
João Paulo (PT) 29%
Daniel Coelho (PSDB) 13%

[Paleobrazilian]

I've been busy over the last few weeks and will be for a few more weeks. Still, I've finally found some time to appear here and put my two cents on this thread.

For those who are unfamiliar with Brazilian politics, it can be difficult to understand the importance of local politics and local elections. That's why some context is necessary.

Under Brazil's Constitution, Brazil is an indissoluble Union of States (which are then composed by an union of Municipalities) and a Federal District (that corresponds to the City of Brasília and some other districts, all of them ruled by a central government - there's no "Mayor" of Brasília or of any of those districts). In total, Brazil has 26 States and over 5000 Municipalities. Some States, like Minas Gerais, have over 800 Municipalities, some other States, like Roraima, have only 15 of them. Municipalities also vary hugely in size (the largest Municipality of Brazil, Altamira/PA, is larger than Ireland, while the smallest, Santa Cruz de Minas/MG, has less than 3km² of area), population (there are quite a few Municipalities with less than 2000 inhabitants around the Country, while the Municipality of São Paulo alone has over 5% of Brazil's population) and economic relevance (62 Municipalities are responsible for 50% of Brazil's GDP). Thus, being the Mayor or a Councilor of a Municipality can mean widely different things.

For national politics, the most important Municipalities are those that compose the so-called G-92 (the group of 92 Municipalities with more than 200 thousand voters, where the Constitution mandates a runoff if no candidate wins an outright majority after the 1st round - here's a list of them: http://www.justicaeleitoral.jus.br/arquivos/municipios-com-mais-de-200-mil-eleitores) + the Federal District (which has no Municipalities, remember) + the Municipality of Palmas/TO (the only State Capital Municipality in Brazil with less than 200 thousand voters). Combined, those 92 Municipalities + the Federal District + Palmas amount to around 40% of Brazil's voters. Those are the places where the national committees of the parties will focus, where they'll spend money, where they'll try to build the relevant alliances, etc.). Those are also the places candidates will be campaigning on during presidential elections, as you'd expect. When we talk about Mayoral elections in Brazil, we usually focus on State Capital elections only, but I find it extremely important to look for the bigger picture. Winning a large Municipality which is not a Capital like Campinas/SP, Uberlândia/MG, Caxias do Sul/RS, Feira de Santana/BA (just to give you some examples from different regions of the Country) can be as important as winning a small State Capital like Rio Branco/AC (if not more important).

When you're talking about statewide politics, though, the analysis is much more complicated. On a small State with only 15 Municipalities like Roraima, you can be sure that parties will have a strategy for every single Municipality and the most powerful politicians from there will try to field competitive candidates on all Municipalities. On a State like Minas Gerais, though, it's obvious that the focus will be on no more than 50 or 60 larger Municipalities, which are truly relevant for statewide elections, as the other 800 ones are usually smallish satellites that rely on those larger Municipalities closer to them.

A relevant factor that has to be mentioned is that partisan politics are usually only relevant on those largest Municipalities I mentioned above. On most smallish Municipalities, parties are only a formality required by Brazil's law so that someone can run for Mayor or Councilor, and politics are strictly personal. For this reason, party structure is minimal on most Municipalities. However, there are some exceptions, due to specific local factors. A few examples are 1) a large presence of PSDB on most Municipalities of São Paulo, due to the fact that PSDB has ran the State for the last 22 years, giving them strong access to many cities; 2) the strength of PT in Bahia, due to a successful 10 year tenure running the state and the strong popularity Lula used to have on countryside Bahia); 3) many PSB Mayors in Pernambuco and some other Northeastern States, as the legacy of Eduardo Campos; 4) PMDB's strength in Rio de Janeiro, due to the power the party accumulated there after Sergio Cabral took office in 2006; 5) a strong, unusual PP-PDT polarization in many Municipalities in Rio Grande do Sul, a curious legacy of the military regime. It's important to notice that small Municipalities only break even thanks to federal and state government support, thus Mayors from those places want to be in parties that make it easier for them to dialogue with those entities.

Another important piece of the puzzle is the electoral schedule of Brazil. As you know, Brazil has elections every 2 years, with a Municipal election followed by a General election followed by a Municipal election and so on. On Municipal elections, only Mayors and Councilors are elected, while on General elections, Brazil elects its President, its Governors, its Senators, its Federal Congressmen and Congresswomen, and its State Congressmen and Congresswomen. Due to this schedule, two curious phenomena happen: on one side, Municipal elections are usually dominated by local issues, because there's no national or statewide election going on at the same moment, so voters will obviously focus on very local issues. On the flip side, Municipal elections on larger Municipalities are relevant to forge alliances which will bound national and statewide elections 2 years later - in fact, the largest Municipal elections are quite usually rehearsals for the upcoming national and statewide elections, and that's why they're closely observed. Thus, Municipal elections (specially on those larger Municipalities) can be quite contradictory when you look what the voters expect from them and what the parties expect from them.

2016, however, has proved to be a very different animal from what we have usually seen when it comes to Municipal elections. I'll write a piece on this tomorrow.

[Paleobrazilian]

Yesterday, I talked a little bit about how local elections in Brazil usually play out. Today, I'll explain a little bit what's different this time out.

The first factor that has to be taken into account is the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Her impeachment was a highly divisive issue that dominated political headlines for nine long months. Local elections only started making headlines around 2 weeks ago. Due to this, many people probably only realized there's an election going over the last few days. Also, it has to be taken into account that (i) when impeached, Dilma's ratings were abysmal, so whoever is associated to her will be carrying a heavy burden; and (ii) the polarization between those who supported Dilma's impeachment and those who called it a coup would definitely not stop on the day Dilma was impeached (in fact, this will most definitely drag on until 2018).

The second factor I'd mention is the Lava Jato investigation (and all the other investigations involving PT politicians, like Acrônimo, Greenfield and Zelotes). Among the consequences of those investigations, one can mention (i) the fact that, 1 week before the election, they're all dominating political headlines, getting more attention than debates and polls; (ii) the fact that they're severely hurting PT on the verge of the election (Lula was criminally charged as "the chief commander of Petrobras' corruption scheme" last week, Lula's and Dilma's Finance Minister Guido Mantega was arrested this week for corruption in Petrobras, Fernando Pimentel may soon lose his job as Governor of Minas Gerais due to corruption, etc); (iii) unfortunately, elections in Brazil were always funded with millions in illegal donations, but with all those investigations, it's now harder for parties to use dirty money on their campaigns, so, as they have to play by the rules, there are no "cinematographic" campaigns going on this year.

In third place, an electoral reform last season has severely changed the way campaigns work in Brazil. Among the relevant changes, (i) corporate donations were banned, drying out the most important source of money for campaigns (on the flip side, public funding was enhanced); (ii) fundraising and spending limits are now tighter and strictly regulated and scrutinized, also reducing a lot the available money for campaigns; and (ii) time of free TV and radio campaign has been drastically reduced (now, there are only 20 minutes of TV/radio campaign per day) and, since the division of this time is proportional to congressional benches, smaller parties were severely hurt by the new rules.

Finally, there's the huge political and economic mess Brazil is stuck in. Many State and Municipal governments are struggling to make ends meet (for example, the State of Rio de Janeiro is in a despairing Detroit-like financial situation). Unemployment is high, inflation is still high, interest rates are high, we're still in a recession, the highly partisan environment left by the impeachment has left bad blood between many people, and the government is struggling to move the necessary reforms through Congress. This has an obvious impact on the life of all citizens.

Due to those factors, the dynamics of this local elections are significantly different from those we usually see. Among the relevant consequences of everything I said:

(i-a) unlike most Municipal elections, which are usually decided by local issues, this year campaigns on many Municipalities (specially the larger ones) are extremely nationalized, on the sense that national issues are trumping local issues and that voters are making their choices primarily due to national factors;

(i-b) the biggest consequence of what I mentioned above is the fact that PT and it's closest allies (specially PCdoB) are struggling mightily on many Municipalities (specially the larger ones). Due to all scandals, Dilma's impeachment, Lula's legal problems and all the corruption that's being revealed, PT and its allies will probably be wiped out from almost all State Capitals (their only realistic hopes right now are some smallish Capitals like Rio Branco and Porto Velho) and most G-92 cities as well. However, due to the fact that PT has been so bloodied due to corruption, the party has shrunk on the entire Country (even at small Municipalities, where parties are usually irrelevant), the number of Mayoral candidates PT is fielding has been dramatically reduced (PT is fielding less than 1000 candidates this time out, while PMDB is fielding over 2300 candidates and PSDB is fielding over 1700 candidates, for example), many viable PT/PCdoB candidates have switched parties to remain relevant (here in São Paulo, over 20% of all PT Mayors moved to other parties after 2014, like Osasco/SP Mayor Jorge Lapas, that shifted from PT to PDT to raise his reelection prospects, and Jundiaí/SP Mayor Pedro Bigardi, that switched from PCdoB to PSD for the same reason), and due to the fact that PT is hugely indebted and hurt by corruption, its on such a fragile situation that it has no hope of defending itself for now;

(ii) this time out, there's such a huge uncertainty about the political future of Brazil that it's very hard to see this election as a rehearsal for 2018. Quite simply, we have no clue whatsoever of how 2018 will play out, so many parties and politicians are going for it this time out and putting 2018 on hold. Thus, on many large Municipalities, we've seen an unusual fragmentation, with many viable/somewhat viable candidates and few large alliances. The only big alliances we've seen are on places where there's a hugely favored politician, such as a powerful and popular incumbent (a rare situation). That's not to say that some selected races will be very important for 2018, though;

(iii) an obvious consequence of the political and economical turmoil is a big anti incumbent feeling throughout the Country. PT is always the party that's taking the heaviest burden from it, but it's not a problem that's exclusive from them. Expect to see many Mayors running for reelection unseated in a few days;

(iv) while most incumbents are struggling, the few Mayors with high approval ratings are taking the benefits from it and coasting to reelection with unprecedented ease. 2 examples I'd mention are ACM Neto (DEM/BA, Mayor of Salvador) and Paulo Alexandre Barbosa (PSDB/SP, Mayor of Santos), popular incumbents who have both assembled large alliances and are both trouncing their rivals on polls, with over 70% of support;

(v) the political crisis has left the door wide open for outsiders and unknowns (more on this when I talk about João Dória...);

(vi) former Mayors/Governors who're running against unpopular candidates have also benefited from this environment. Many candidates on this situation are running competitive campaigns. For example, the former Mayor of Curitiba/PR, Rafael Greca (PMN), and the former Mayor of Goiânia/GO, Iris Rezende (PMDB), who're both leading their races.

All in, I hope to talk about some specific races I consider relevant later.

[buritobr]

I will vote for
Marcelo Freixo (50) mayor of Rio de Janeiro
Renato Cinco (50555) vereador
http://www.trincheiras.com.br/2016/09/declaracao-de-voto-marcelo-freixo-prefeito-50-renato-cinco-vereador-50555/

[Paleobrazilian]

Let's look at some polls and graphs to see what's going on 5 of the largest and most important Municipalities in Brazil!

São Paulo/SP:

Datafolha poll, released Thursday.



As you can see, there are 5 major candidates here, with different trends going on:

(i) João Dória (PSDB) is clearly on an upward trend, and with only 8 days now before the election, it's hard to see him outside the runoff unless something unusual happens. Dória was not well known when the campaign started, but greatly benefited from being the PSDB candidate (which is the most popular party in São Paulo, specially among the middle class and upper classes) and having a large alliance which gives him more TV/radio time than any other candidate. He benefits from the anti establishment environment, as he's no career politician (he's a wealthy businessman who once presented Brazil's The Apprentice). As someone who's already hosted a reality show and built his fortune on the communications sector, Dória is someone who presents himself extremely well on style and knows perfectly how to market himself (his campaign has been absolutely spot on when trying to connect with the sort of voters he needs to vote for him, selling him as a CEO who'll run São Paulo as a CEO and not as a politician). On substance, he's also showing interesting nuances, showing a fiscally conservativet speech on the economy that is resonating well with voters. Finally, as a rich businessman, he has a big advantage, which is the possibility of self funding himself. He's already consolidated the 1/3rd of São Paulo's electorate that will always vote PSDB no matter, giving him an interesting floor for the runoff;

(ii) Congressman Celso Russomanno (PRB) was the early leader who's now struggling to make the runoff. Russomanno is a TV celebrity who's famous for his consumer's rights TV show. Many will remember he also led almost all polls back in 2012, before falling down mightily on the election week, what made him miss the runoff. Despite being a TV celebrity, Russomanno is actually a bland persona when campaigning and also makes a huge number of unforced errors (like saying he'd ban Über from São Paulo if elected). He also has a big problem that's the fact that he has significantly less time on TV/radio than his rivals. I wouldn't expect him to make the runoff right now;

(iii) Senator Marta Suplicy (PMDB) is running for her old job, this time on a new party. She benefits from being well rated among poorer voters and voters from poorer suburbs, which liked the policies she adopted between 2000 and 2004. She's also running an effective campaign and benefits from having Andrea Matarazzo (PSD) as her running mate (someone who connects well with upper classes and assures the support of Minister Gilberto Kassab to her campaign). All in, she now has an interesting floor of around 20%, which will probably send her to the runoff if she can convert some low income voters that are still with Russomanno right now;

(iv) Mayor Fernando Haddad (PT) is on such a regrettable situation right there's not even too much to say about him. His term is very poorly rated among all voters, his policies failed to connect with PT's traditional low income voters, and the fact that PT is on shambles has absolutely crushed him on a city and a State that despise PT. The only voters that remain with him are left-leaning, high income voters with College degrees. His political career could end next week, as he's more of a career bureaucrat who was elected thanks to Lula's/PT's coattails (when Lula and PT were still on a high) than a career politician;

(v) Congresswoman Luiza Erundina (PSOL) is also running for her old job. She never had a realistic shot at winning, as she has much less time on TV than her rivals. However, in the beginning, she benefited from the recall she had as a former Mayor. The only voters she retained are staunch leftist voters, and her campaign is definitely more ideological than competitive. She'll probably end with no less than 5% of all valid votes.

All in, we're probably witnessing a trend that will put Dória in the runoff. Who'll be against him is the great mystery right now. Suplicy is touting tactical voting among Haddad and Erundina voters to make the runoff (never forget, she was a founder of PT and one of PT's most important names for nearly 35 years). However, the fact that she left PT for PMDB (the party of President Temer!) and voted for Dilma's impeachment may have burned her bridges with the left. In fact, she said this week that she never considered herself as a leftist politician (a bizarre statement aimed at Russomanno voters, obviously). Being seen as a traitor won't help her, but the possibility of a Dória-Russomanno runoff may scare leftist voters enough that they'll flock back to Marta anyway.

Soon I'll bring something on Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Recife and Porto Alegre.

[Paleobrazilian]

Rio de Janeiro/RJ:

Datafolha poll, released Thursday.



Rio de Janeiro has seen a quite inelastic race so far, but a very exciting race nonetheless.

The undisputed frontrunner for now is Senator Marcelo Crivella, who's pretty much a lock for the runoff. Crivella, who's strongly tied to the powerful Universal evangelical church, was elected to the Senate in 2002 and reelected in 2010. Ever since his election he's tried to run for a major office on the Executive Branch, running for Mayor of Rio de Janeiro/RJ in 2004 and 2008 and for Governor of Rio in 2006 and 2014. However, only in 2014 he made it to the runoff. After so many failed bids, he's finally the frontrunner, propelled by evangelicals, low income voters and a huge split on the alternatives to him. His approval ratings are also noteworthy.

Against him, as you can see, there's a jam of candidates who are fighting for a spot on the runoff, which can be described in those groups:

(i) the left block, which is embodied by Congresswoman Jandira Feghali (PCdoB) and State Congressman Marcelo Freixo (PSOL). This is a curious situation where you a have someone who's closer to the establishment left, but adopts a stark leftist rhetoric (Feghali) and someone who's on a stark left wing party but has a speech that is palatable to centrist voters (Freixo). Freixo is ahead of Feghali (and all others) by a razor-thin margin right now;

(ii) the right block, embodied by Congressman Flavio Bolsonaro (PSC), son of Congressman Jair Bolsonaro (PSC), a far right politician who's a loony social conservative, and Congressman Indio da Costa (PSD), who's known as José Serra's running mate back in 2010, who's mostly a fiscal conservative. Both are slightly behind the other 3;

(iii) finally, there's Congressman Pedro Paulo (PMDB), who's the candidate endorsed by Mayor Eduardo Paes (PMDB) - a.k.a. the Olympic Mayor. Pedro Paulo has the support of the Federal Government, the State Government and the local government, he has the most TV/radio time of all candidates and has most interest groups on his side. However, he's being hurt by the anti establishment feeling of the electorate, Paes' declining ratings and suspicions of domestic violence against his wife. His approval ratings are very low, so it's hard to see him winning a runoff, but he's right next to Freixo and Feghali, so the power of the machine may just carry him into the runoff.

As you can imagine, tactical voting will be a factor here. However, there are just so many candidates fighting for a runoff spot that it's hard to get a clue of what will be the best tactic. On the left, Freixo's and Feghali's voters have been fighting on the web, both claiming they are the best positioned to make it to the runoff. On the right, voters may be afraid of letting Freixo or Feghali sneak into the runoff, what could for Pedro Paulo, who's the best positioned contender to stop those 2. It's interesting to note that 75% of da Costa's voters claim they could switch their votes before the election, clearly an indication that they'd be willing to vote tactically. The same is probably true about the 4% of votes carried right now by State Congressman Carlos Osorio (PSDB), that would probably lean to the right if his voters decide to vote tactically.

All in, this will go down to the wire.

[Paleobrazilian]

Belo Horizonte/MG:

Datafolha poll, released Thursday.



Unlike the 2 races I was talking about earlier, this one seems to have a well defined runoff. State Congressman João Leite (PSDB), Senator Aecio Neves' handpicked candidate, has led all polls so far, but will probably have to face a runoff against Alexandre Kalil (PHS), who brands himself as an outsider. Kalil is a businessman who's known as for being the former chairman of Atlético Mineiro, one of the 2 most important football clubs of Belo Horizonte. That's not to say Leite has no connections to soccer, though: he played nearly 700 games as the goalkeeper of Atlético Mineiro on the 70s and the 80s.

The most remarkable thing about the race in Belo Horizonte is that it seems that there's a bizarre proxy war going on there. Kalil has been accused of being the secret candidate of Governor Fernando Pimentel (PT), who's in huge trouble due to corruption. He has dismissed those claims, but it's noteworthy that his running mate used to be from PT and is still very close to Pimentel. There are also accusations that Aecio Neves has his own proxy candidates: Vice Mayor Délio Malheiros (PSD), who was appointed as candidate by Mayor Marcio Lacerda (PSB), but seems to be more focused on attacking Kalil than defending Lacerda's administration; Congressman Luis Tibé (PTdoB) and Sargent Rodrigues (PDT) are all believed to be working to help Leite. Then again, it's claimed that Congressman Rodrigo Pacheco (PMDB) is also on Pimentel's side. Not to mention that PT has it's own token candidate, Congressman Reginaldo Lopes (PT). Perhaps the runoff will give us some clarity.

Recife/PE:

Datafolha poll, released Thursday.



Not much mystery here. Incumbent Mayor Geraldo Julio (PSB) is fairly well rated, and that's why he's polling strongly. Former Mayor João Paulo (PT) ran a well rated administration which gave him a nice floor, but PT's scandals and some recent gaffes may be hurting his ceiling. Many expected a stronger performance by Congressman Daniel Coelho (PSDB), who ran an inspiring campaign back in 2012, but little TV/radio time is probably taking him down. The question now is whether Coelho's voters will vote tactically for Julio to prevent João Paulo from making a runoff.

[Paleobrazilian]

To end this series of poll analysis, let's take a look at Porto Alegre/RS and Fortaleza/CE.

Porto Alegre/RS:

IBOPE poll, released Friday.



This is one of the most exciting races ATM. Vice Mayor Sebastião Melo is looking for a promotion, and with a large TV/radio airtime and the Federal Government, the State Government and the local government on his side, he's managed to build a coalition of voters that will probably carry him to the runoff. He's no lock yet, though, because President Temer's (PMDB), Governor Sartori's (PMDB) and Mayor Fortunatti's (PDT) ratings are not that good.

There are 2 blocks of candidates against him:

On the center-right, you have Congressman Nelson Marchezan Junior (PSDB), son of a famous local politician and one of the leaders of PSDB's "new right" wing, running with strong support from grassroots movements like MBL; and you have State Congressman Maurício Dziedricki, who's trying to label himself as an alternative to Melo and the more polarized alternatives also running.

Meanwhile, on the left, there's former Mayor Raul Pont (PT), a member of PT's "Socialist Democracy" movement that's to the left of Lula's group in the party, who's trying to regain the job he last held 16 years ago; and there's Luciana Genro (PSOL), former Governor Tarso Genro's far left daughter, who started of strong on polls due to recall from the 2014 election, but has since declined steadily.

Once again, we'll have an election were tactical voting will play a big factor. Both Marchezan and Pont are better placed than Genro and Dziedricki, so one can only wonder if voters from the latter two will migrate to the latter true. One thing that must be noticed, though, is that both leftist candidates have very high negative ratings (not only both are victims of PT's unpopularity, they're also seen as extremist candidates). This may help Marchezan's chance of making the runoff.

Fortaleza/CE:

Datafolha poll, released Saturday.



This is more of a battle of kingmakers than anything else. Mayor Roberto Claudio (PDT) is a puppet of the Gomes' brothers who's trying to win reelection with their support. The strongest candidate against him right now is Councilor Captain Wagner, who has the support of two heavyweight names of Ceará politics: Senator Eunicio Oliveira (PMDB) and Senator Tasso Jereissati (PSDB). Former Mayor Luizianne Lins (PT) is also trying to unseat Claudio, with the support of Lula, but it's important to notice that not only PT's ratings are bad throughout the Country, Lins' ratings when she left office back in 2012 were quite poor. All in, a Claudio x Wagner runoff is the most likely scenario.

IBOPE and Datafolha will release a large batch of polls starting tomorrow. Expect a lot of movement on what will be the last week of campaign.

[Paleobrazilian]

Guess what: Lula's first Finance Minister and Dilma's First Chief of Staff, Antonio Palocci (PT/SP), was just arrested by the Federal Police for corruption. PT should just give up on this election (and 2018, I guess).

[RodPresident]

Rio de Janeiro/RJ:

Datafolha poll, released Thursday.



Rio de Janeiro has seen a quite inelastic race so far, but a very exciting race nonetheless.

The undisputed frontrunner for now is Senator Marcelo Crivella, who's pretty much a lock for the runoff. Crivella, who's strongly tied to the powerful Universal evangelical church, was elected to the Senate in 2002 and reelected in 2010. Ever since his election he's tried to run for a major office on the Executive Branch, running for Mayor of Rio de Janeiro/RJ in 2004 and 2008 and for Governor of Rio in 2006 and 2014. However, only in 2014 he made it to the runoff. After so many failed bids, he's finally the frontrunner, propelled by evangelicals, low income voters and a huge split on the alternatives to him. His approval ratings are also noteworthy.

Against him, as you can see, there's a jam of candidates who are fighting for a spot on the runoff, which can be described in those groups:

(i) the left block, which is embodied by Congresswoman Jandira Feghali (PCdoB) and State Congressman Marcelo Freixo (PSOL). This is a curious situation where you a have someone who's closer to the establishment left, but adopts a stark leftist rhetoric (Feghali) and someone who's on a stark left wing party but has a speech that is palatable to centrist voters (Freixo). Freixo is ahead of Feghali (and all others) by a razor-thin margin right now;

(ii) the right block, embodied by Congressman Flavio Bolsonaro (PSC), son of Congressman Jair Bolsonaro (PSC), a far right politician who's a loony social conservative, and Congressman Indio da Costa (PSD), who's known as José Serra's running mate back in 2010, who's mostly a fiscal conservative. Both are slightly behind the other 3;

(iii) finally, there's Congressman Pedro Paulo (PMDB), who's the candidate endorsed by Mayor Eduardo Paes (PMDB) - a.k.a. the Olympic Mayor. Pedro Paulo has the support of the Federal Government, the State Government and the local government, he has the most TV/radio time of all candidates and has most interest groups on his side. However, he's being hurt by the anti establishment feeling of the electorate, Paes' declining ratings and suspicions of domestic violence against his wife. His approval ratings are very low, so it's hard to see him winning a runoff, but he's right next to Freixo and Feghali, so the power of the machine may just carry him into the runoff.

As you can imagine, tactical voting will be a factor here. However, there are just so many candidates fighting for a runoff spot that it's hard to get a clue of what will be the best tactic. On the left, Freixo's and Feghali's voters have been fighting on the web, both claiming they are the best positioned to make it to the runoff. On the right, voters may be afraid of letting Freixo or Feghali sneak into the runoff, what could for Pedro Paulo, who's the best positioned contender to stop those 2. It's interesting to note that 75% of da Costa's voters claim they could switch their votes before the election, clearly an indication that they'd be willing to vote tactically. The same is probably true about the 4% of votes carried right now by State Congressman Carlos Osorio (PSDB), that would probably lean to the right if his voters decide to vote tactically.

All in, this will go down to the wire.

In Rio de Janeiro, run-off will probably see a coronation of Marcelo Crivella because he's less unpopular between left and right. And candidate most like to be benefitted from right-wing tactical vote isn't Pedro Paulo, but Indio da Costa who have anti-Universal rhetorics and is in a not so toxic party to attract left-wing voters in runoff, although I think that he's most right-wing than Pedro Paulo and Carlos Osorio. PSDB in Rio lost strength after a failed government in 90s, while DEM collapsed after Cesar Maia (father of Speaker Rodrigo Maia and who is town councillor) failed 3rd term with white elephants like Music City and chaos in health services. And tactical vote in left will benefit Freixo who's most palatable to middle classes and can make inroads with poor people.
Rio's PMDB machine has panic of giving strength to Anthony Garotinho (main Crivella supporter), then they'll give a hidden support to anti-Crivella candidate because they're very toxic and they can't piss PRB votes in Congress.
The fun thing of a Crivella-left-runoff will be non-Universal evangelical vote. They hate Universal because they see them as monopolist church, but hate Freixo and Feghali because they're very supportive of abortion rights and gay marriage. But people like Silas Malafaia won't hesitate to support Crivella, specially after his support for impeachment. (

[Paleobrazilian]

IBOPE released a new batch of polls today. São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro have striking trends:

São Paulo

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Doria just keeps going up. Meanwhile, if this is not an outlier, it seems that Suplicy stalled, with Haddad gaining from her. I wouldn't be surprised if that's true though, there's too much bad blood between her and the ideological left. Still, with huge negative ratings, it's hard to see Haddad making it to the runoff. It's important to notice that a new scandal has just hit Russomanno, so he could lose more steam, giving Suplicy and Haddad a late opening.

Runoff polls are also excellent for Doria, because he now leads both Russomanno and Suplicy (only Russomanno is still within the M.O.E.), and also trounces Haddad:

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Rio de Janeiro:

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There are 2 important things to look at here. The 1st is that Crivella has risen a little bit more. Due to this, he now has an outside chance (<10%) of avoiding a runoff. While he'd be heavily favored on all runoff scenarios, he'd obviously love to cut this election short. He's trying to get as many voters on board with him as possible now, and also netted an important endorsement from Senator Romario (PSB) last weekend.

Meanwhile, it's important to notice that for the 1st time on this election cycle, Pedro Paulo has polled at double digits and ahead of his opponents. It's still an extremely tight race and more polls are needed to confirm the trend, but perhaps the machine has finally started to carry him up.

There will be a huge lot of polls coming out on the next 5 days. Datafolha will release polls tomorrow and Thursday, and I'd expect them to release polls Saturday as well. Meanwhile, IBOPE will be polling the entire Country over the next days, including a huge lot of polls which will be released Friday and Saturday. Also, IBOPE has already confirmed they'll be doing their traditional exit poll on Sunday.

[buritobr]

I am just coming home from the Marcelo Freixo's rally at Lapa, downtown Rio de Janeiro. There were ~20K people there. The polls are predicting that Freixo will have ~400K votes. So, 5% of his voters were there.
Besides Marcelo Freixo and his running mate Luciana Boiteux, PSOL congressmen Chico Alencer and Jean Wyllys made speeches, as well as the PSOL and PCB candidates for vereador. Famous brazilian artists, like Chico Buarque, Wagner Moura and Gregório Duvivier were there too.

Some pictures
http://www.trincheiras.com.br/2016/09/comicio-do-marcelo-freixo-na-lapa-26092016/

[buritobr]

Explaining the split of the left in Rio de Janeiro

There are three leftist candidates in Rio de Janeiro: Marcelo Freixo (Party of Socialism and Liberty, PSOL), Jandira Feghali (Communist Party from Brazil, PCdoB), and Alessandro Molon (Network, REDE).

PSOL is a leftist split of the PT. Members of the PT who were not satisfied with Lula's administration created the PSOL. You can compare PSOL to Linke in Germany, Podemos in Spain and Syriza in Greece. PT is like SPD in Germany, PSOE in Spain and PASOK in Greece.
In most of the Brazilian states, PSOL is a far-left party. In Rio de Janeiro, PT endorsed the center-right state administration of Sérgio Cabral (PMDB) and municipal administration of Eduardo Paes (PMDB). It was a price to pay for the PMDB endorsement of Dilma Rousseff's administration. The Communist Party of Brazil (PCdoB) is a close ally of PT and endorsed the PMDB administrations in Rio de Janeiro too. Since PT and PCdoB decided to endorse PMDB administrations in Rio de Janeiro, PSOL became the most important left-wing party in the opposition of these administrations. In Rio de Janeiro, PSOL moved away from the far-left and became a center-left party, occuping the space left empty by the PT and the PCdoB. Marcelo Freixo is a moderate socialist.
But in 2016, PMDB stopped supporting Dilma's administration and voted for her impeachment. Michel Temer is a PMDB leader. Due to the PMDB vote pro-impeachment, PT and PCdoB stopped endorsing PMDB administrations in Rio de Janeiro. That's why Jandira Feghali (PCdoB) became a candidate, instead of endorsing Pedro Paulo (PMDB). PT is backing Jandira.
So, Marcelo Freixo and Jandira Feghali are spliting the leftist vote. But their electorate is not the same. Jandira's voters are poor people who backed Lula and Dilma's administration. Most of the Freixo's voters are middle class voters who like leftist ideas but dislike the corruption scandals of the PT leaders and the PT endorsement of the PMDB administrations in Rio de Janeiro. Many Freixo's voters are university students and professors. However, leaders of the landless movement (MST), homeless movement (MTST) and many leaders of favelas are endorsing Freixo too.
Rio de Janeiro is a strange state in which the "radical" left is bigger than the "moderate" left. Marcelo Freixo is polling better than Jandira Feghali. You can compare to some East German states, in which the Linke is bigger than the SPD.
The third leftist candidate in Rio de Janeiro is Alessandro Molon. He was a PT congressman. Now, he is in REDE, Marina Silva's party. However, he is on the left of Marina Silva. He was against Dilma's impeachment. Marina was pro Dilma's impeachment.


Marcelo Freixo is endorsed by the Brazilian Communist Party (PCB). It is different to the Communist Party from Brazil (PCdoB). It will be a long history to explain why there are two communist parties in Brazil.

[Paleobrazilian]

Datafolha released their numbers earlier today. In São Paulo, Doria keeps pulling away and is now at 30%, against Russomanno's 22%. Datafolha also confirms Suplicy's decline, also putting her at 15%. It seems that both Suplicy's and Russomanno's negative ratings have increased a lot over the last week, to the benefit of Doria. According to Datafolha, Doria also leads all runoff scenarios as well.

In Rio de Janeiro, meanwhile, Datafolha contradicts IBOPE on the sense that they have Crivella declining to 29%. However, they agree with IBOPE on the rise of Pedro Paulo, who they also have in 2nd place with 11% of the vote.

[Paleobrazilian]

Fernando Rodrigues ran an article today showing the state of the polls on almost all G-93 cities (G-92 + Palmas). PSDB, as expected, is doing the best on those Municipalities. They already have the largest number of Mayors on those Municipalities (19) and could increase this number further (right now they have 16 candidates with the outright lead and 6 others statistically tied for the lead. PT's performance on them, however, is abysmal. Right now they only have 5 (five!) competitive candidates in G-93 cities on the entire country. Back on 2012 they elected 17 Mayors on G-93 Municipalities, so it's now impossible to deny how much PT has sunk.



Here's his huge batch of polls. First, the Capitals, then, the other G-93 Municipalities with polls available:

http://imguol.com/blogs/52/files/2016/09/vale-este-pesquisa-prefeitos-capitais-2016.jpg
http://imguol.com/blogs/52/files/2016/09/atualizado-55-cidades.jpg

[Paleobrazilian]

Meanwhile, earlier today, in Itumbiara/GO, during a campaign rally, a shooting happened, killing mayoral candidate José Gomes (PTB), who was widely expected to win the race. The Vice Governor of Goias, José Eliton (PSDB), who was also on the rally, was hit by a shot as well, but is in no danger according to the latest reports. Itumbiara is an important Municipality of Goiás and it's no surprise that the Vice Governor was campaigning there.

According to rumors, the shooting likely had happened for political reasons. The shooter, who was killed by the police, is believed to be a public servant with ties to local opposition leaders. The whole thing definitely looks suspicious, and it's important to notice that Jose Eliton is widely expected to run for Governor of Goiás in 2018, when incumbent Governor Marconi Perillo (PSDB) will be term limited. It's also important to notice that earlier today, the house of the Mayor of Buriti Alegre/GO was hit by multiple shots, but no one was injured. The Mayor of Buriti Alegre is also from PSDB.

Unfortunately, things like this are not rare in Brazil, specially on local elections. But there are many worrisome signs this year. Probably the most disturbing situation is on the Greater Rio de Janeiro area, where 14 candidates for Mayor and Councilor posts on Municipalities from that area have been killed since the campaign officially started. It's widely believed that at least a few of these killings happened due to political reasons.

[buritobr]

Last Datafolha poll, October 1st

considering only valid votes

São Paulo
João Doria (PSDB) 44%
Celso Russomano (PRB) 16%
Fernando Haddad (PT) 16%
Marta (PMDB) 14%
Luiza Erundina (PSOL) 5%

Rio de Janeiro
Marcelo Crivella (PRB) 32%
Marcelo Freixo (PSOL) 16%
Pedro Paulo (PMDB) 12%
Índio da Costa (PSD) 11%
Carlos Osório (PSDB) 10%
Flávio Bolsonaro (PSC) 8%
Jandira Feghali (PCdoB) 7%
Alessandro Molon (Rede) 2%

[buritobr]

Ibope

São Paulo
João Doria (PSDB) 35%
Celso Russomano (PRB) 23%
Marta (PMDB) 19%
Fernando Haddad (PT) 15%
Luiza Erundina (PSOL) 5%

Rio de Janeiro
Marcelo Crivela (PRB) 38%
Marcelo Freixo (PSOL) 14%
Pedro Paulo (PMDB) 11%
Flávio Bolsonaro (PSC) 10%
Índio da Costa (PSD) 10%
Jandira Feghali (PCdoB) 7%
Osório (PSDB) 6%
Alessandro Molon (Rede) 2%

[buritobr]

Datafolha October 1st

Belo Horizonte
João Leite (PSDB) 39%
Alexandre Kalil (PHS) 23%
Rodrigo Pacheco (PMDB) 8%
Reginaldo Lopes (PT) 7%
Délio Malheiros (PSD) 6%

Recife
Geraldo Julio (PSB) 45%
João Paulo (PT) 29%
Daniel Coelho (PSDB) 15%

Fortaleza
Rogério Claudio (PDT) 39%
Capitão Wagner (PR) 31%
Luizianne Lins (PT) 17%
Heitor Ferrer (PSB) 7%

[buritobr]

Ibope, October 1st

Belo Horizonte
João Leite (PSDB) 41%
Alexandre Kalil (PHS) 29%
Délio Malheiros (PSD) 6%
Rodrigo Pacheco (PMDB) 6%

Recife
Geraldo Júlio (PSB) 45%
João Paulo (PT) 31%
Daniel Coelho (PSDB) 16%

Fortaleza
Roberto Claudio (PDT) 38%
Capitão Wagner (PR) 30%
Luizianne Lins (PT) 19%
Heitor Ferrer (PSB) 7%

Curitiba
Rafael Greca (PMN) 35%
Gustavo Fruet (PDT) 22%
Ney Leprevost (PSD) 17%
Requião Filho (PMDB) 9%

Porto Alegre
Sebastião Melo (PMDB) 31%
Nelson Marchezan (PSDB) 21%
Raul Pont (PT) 19%
Luciana Genro (PSOL) 14%

Salvador
ACM Neto (DEM) 73%
Alice Portugal (PCdoB) 16%
Pastor Sargento Isidoro (PDT) 9%

Campinas
Jonas Donizette (PSB) 58%
Márcio Pochmann (PT) 15%
Artus Orsi (PSD) 13%
Dr. Hélio (PDT) 10%

[buritobr]

Details of the Datafolha poll

São Paulo

Male
João Dória 40%
Celso Russomano 15%
Fernando Haddad 15%
Marta 10%
Luiza Erundina 4%

Female
João Dória 36%
Celso Russomano 13%
Fernando Haddad 13%
Marta 14%
Luiza Erundina 5%


Age: 16-24
João Dória 28%
Celso Russomano 16%
Fernando Haddad 21%
Marta 14%
Luiza Erundina 4%

Age: 25-34
João Dória 34%
Celso Russomano 12%
Fernando Haddad 18%
Marta 13%
Luiza Erundina 5%

Age: 35-44
João Dória 39%
Celso Russomano 14%
Fernando Haddad 12%
Marta 12%
Luiza Erundina 6%

Age: 45-59
João Dória 38%
Celso Russomano 15%
Fernando Haddad 12%
Marta 12%
Luiza Erundina 4%

Age: 60-
João Dória 45%
Celso Russomano 14%
Fernando Haddad 10%
Marta 11%
Luiza Erundina 3%


Household income: <2 minimum wages (1 minimum wage ~ US$275 p month)
João Dória 30%
Celso Russomano 20%
Fernando Haddad 9%
Marta 17%
Luiza Erundina 3%

Household income: between 2 and 5 minimum wages
João Dória 36%
Celso Russomano 15%
Fernando Haddad 15%
Marta 12%
Luiza Erundina 5%

Household income: between 5 and 10 minimum wages
João Dória 45%
Celso Russomano 7%
Fernando Haddad 18%
Marta 7%
Luiza Erundina 6%

Household income: >10 minimum wages
João Dória 53%
Celso Russomano 3%
Fernando Haddad 21%
Marta 4%
Luiza Erundina 6%


Elementary
João Dória 31%
Celso Russomano 22%
Fernando Haddad 10%
Marta 18%
Luiza Erundina 3%

High School
João Dória 36%
Celso Russomano 16%
Fernando Haddad 10%
Marta 14%
Luiza Erundina 3%

College
João Dória 44%
Celso Russomano 5%
Fernando Haddad 21%
Marta 6%
Luiza Erundina 7%

[buritobr]

Details of the Datafolha poll

Rio de Janeiro

Male
Marcelo Crivella 30%
Marcelo Freixo 12%
Pedro Paulo 10%
Índio da Costa 7%
Carlos Osório 9%
Flávio Bolsonaro 8%
Jandira Feghali 6%

Female
Marcelo Crivella 25%
Marcelo Freixo 14%
Pedro Paulo 10%
Índio da Costa 10%
Carlos Osório 7%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5%
Jandira Feghali 6%


Age: 16-24
Marcelo Crivella 23%
Marcelo Freixo 26%
Pedro Paulo 3%
Índio da Costa 9%
Carlos Osório 5%
Flávio Bolsonaro 9%
Jandira Feghali 5%

Age: 25-34
Marcelo Crivella 27%
Marcelo Freixo 18%
Pedro Paulo 9%
Índio da Costa 8%
Carlos Osório 6%
Flávio Bolsonaro 12%
Jandira Feghali 5%

Age: 35-44
Marcelo Crivella 26%
Marcelo Freixo 16%
Pedro Paulo 10%
Índio da Costa 7%
Carlos Osório 10%
Flávio Bolsonaro 7%
Jandira Feghali 5%

Age: 45-59
Marcelo Crivella 29%
Marcelo Freixo 8%
Pedro Paulo 12%
Índio da Costa 10%
Carlos Osório 8%
Flávio Bolsonaro 3%
Jandira Feghali 7%

Age: 60-
Marcelo Crivella 28%
Marcelo Freixo 7%
Pedro Paulo 14%
Índio da Costa 10%
Carlos Osório 10%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5%
Jandira Feghali 7%


Household income: < 2 minimum wages
Marcelo Crivella 36%
Marcelo Freixo 6%
Pedro Paulo 11%
Índio da Costa 9%
Carlos Osório 5%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5%
Jandira Feghali 8%

Household income: between 2 and 5 minimum wages
Marcelo Crivella 29%
Marcelo Freixo 13%
Pedro Paulo 10%
Índio da Costa 8%
Carlos Osório 6%
Flávio Bolsonaro 8%
Jandira Feghali 5%

Household income: between 5 and 10 minimum wages
Marcelo Crivella 17%
Marcelo Freixo 21%
Pedro Paulo 11%
Índio da Costa 8%
Carlos Osório 11%
Flávio Bolsonaro 8%
Jandira Feghali 4%

Household income: >10 minimum wages
Marcelo Crivella 6%
Marcelo Freixo 25%
Pedro Paulo 11%
Índio da Costa 10%
Carlos Osório 18%
Flávio Bolsonaro 8%
Jandira Feghali 4%


Elementary
Marcelo Crivella 42%
Marcelo Freixo 3%
Pedro Paulo 13%
Índio da Costa 8%
Carlos Osório 5%
Flávio Bolsonaro 1%
Jandira Feghali 9%

High School
Marcelo Crivella 29%
Marcelo Freixo 10%
Pedro Paulo 11%
Índio da Costa 10%
Carlos Osório 7%
Flávio Bolsonaro 7%
Jandira Feghali 5%

College
Marcelo Crivella 13%
Marcelo Freixo 25%
Pedro Paulo 7%
Índio da Costa 8%
Carlos Osório 12%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%
Jandira Feghali 5%

[buritobr]

Exit polls will be released at 5 pm in the main Brazilian time
Maybe, after 2 hours, 100% of the votes will have been counted

[buritobr]

Exit polls

São Paulo
João Dória (PSDB) 48%
Fernando Haddad (PT) 20%
Celso Russomano (PRB) 14%
Marta (PMDB) 11%
Luiza Erundina (PSOL) 4%

Rio de Janeiro
Marcelo Crivella (PRB) 30%
Marcelo Freixo (PSOL) 20%
Pedro Paulo (PMDB) 15%
Flávio Bolsonaro (PSC) 12%
Índio da Costa (PSD) 9%
Carlos Osório (PSDB) 7%
Jandira Feghali (PCdoB) 4%