A Different 2012

[Senator Cris]

"We are now able to project that Chris Christie will win the New Hampshire primary. A major win for the New Jersey Governor." -- Rachel Maddow

New Hampshire Primary - 88% reported
✓ Chris Christie 33.6%
Mitt Romney 31.4%
Ron Paul 16.1%
Rick Santorum 9.2%
Newt Gingrich 8.9%
Rick Perry 0.4%

"Tonight, we made history. A lot of people, at the start of this adventure, said to me: "Where are you going? You will never win.". I talked with the New Hampshire people, I told them the truth, I told things like they are. The people of New Hampshire have understood me and they gave me an important victory tonight. This is only the beginning. We are going to win the nomination and we are going to win the presidency of the United States! If you want a strong leader in difficult times, I'm your choice..." -- Chris Christie

[NeverAgain]

Wow, nice job on that.

[NHI]

This looks GREAT!

[Kingpoleon]

Christie-Rodgers 2012!

[Enderman]

You could say, a most interesting timeline. Excited for the update

[Bigby]

Wow, that's an odd but very powerful start. Who won in Iowa?

[Senator Cris]

1. Let the games begin

“The only sure thing in the republican field is uncertainty” -- Wolf Blitzer

In early 2011, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie announced that he was not a candidate for the republican nomination. But during the summer, declared republican candidates were still trailing President Obama in the polls. There was not a true enthusiasm towards people running and several GOP leaders and donors asked Christie to reconsider his decision not to run and to enter the Republican primary.

On August 20, one week after Rick Perry's presidential announcement, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie announced his candidacy for the GOP nomination in a rally in Newark, NJ. Christie joined a field already composed of 10 candidates: Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, Representative Ron Paul, former Speaker Newt Gingrich, Texas Governor Rick Perry, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, Representative Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson and Representative Thaddeus McCotter.

Christie said that he was respectful of the republican field, but that he was the only candidate able to beat the President. Christie gained a bounce after his announcement, but he knew that it was going to be an hard race and, after decided to run for President only 2 years after his first election to the governorship, he was obliged to win. That election was the last call for Mitt Romney and for all other presidential candidates and they had not intention to give up, at all costs.
Mitt Romney was the most disappointed candidate with Chris Christie. They were considered friends, and according to various reports, Christie's decision made Romney very angered, made he willing to do anything to win the nomination.

At the morning of the Iowa caucuses, the Republican field reduced to 7 candidates, instead of the initial 11. After a lack of consideration and support, U.S. Representative Thaddeus McCotter of Michigan dropped out in late September and endorsed Mitt Romney for the nomination.
The Chris Christie's candidacy made a victim in the GOP field. John Huntsman, the former Utah Governor and Ambassador to China, dropped out of the race in late November citing the lack of support, which occurred expecially in New Hampshire, where the New Jersey Governor cathced all the Huntsman's support. He didn't endorse a candidate, but said that both Romney and Christie would be great Presidents.
Herman Cain's candidacy was seriously jeopardized after allegations of sexual harassment by the media. Cain denied the allegations, but he suspended his presidential campaign in early December.
And finally, in late December, former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson decided to drop out from the Republican race and to seek the Libertarian Presidential nomination. He encouraged republicans to support Ron Paul.

Basically all candidates in the field had their momentum. Romney was in the lead in the early polls. Bachmann had the momentum in August, after her win in the Ames Straw Poll. Then it was the Rick Perry's turn. After his announcement, Christie had the momentum. Then Herman Cain surged in the polls and after allegations to Cain, it was Newt Gingrich's turn. Then Ron Paul surged to the lead in various Iowa polls and finally, it was the turn of Rick Santorum, that recovered a lot in Iowa polls, after a permanent campaign in the state.
At the morning of the Iowa caucuses, the only sure thing was uncertainty. Uncertainty in Iowa, where Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum were in a close race according to the polls, with Chris Christie, Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry not so far away.
Uncertainty in New Hampshire, where Mitt Romney still maintained a lead over Chris Christie and uncertainty in national polls, with all contenders in a close race. Let the games begin.

Final CNN Iowa Poll (Paul +2)
Ron Paul 19%
Mitt Romney 17%
Rick Santorum 17%
Newt Gingrich 13%
Rick Perry 11%
Chris Christie 9%
Michele Bachmann 5%

[Senator Cris]

2. Iowa's choice

“Rick Santorum is the projected winner of the Iowa caucuses. Ron Paul will finish in second. Mitt Romney will finish in third.” -- Rachel Maddow

"We have a message. Iowa has a message. We are in this race to win it. This is a victory of all courageous conservatives standing up for our values, our hard-working families. The momentum just started, and nobody can stop it." -- Rick Santorum

Iowa Caucuses - Final Results
✓ Rick Santorum 25.2% (7)
Ron Paul 19.9% (5)
Mitt Romney 16.4% (4)
Newt Gingrich 12.7% (3)
Chris Christie 10.5% (3)
Rick Perry 10% (3)
Michele Bachmann 4.9% (0)

Rick Santorum did that. After a tour of all 99 counties and a permanent, strong campaign in this state, the former Pennsylvania Senator won the Iowa caucuses. And now he's a clear contender for the nomination. Both Romney, Christie, Gingrich will have to face him as a serious candidate if they want to face President Obama in November.

Ron Paul, an early favorite to win Iowa, finished in second but was still able to outdistance Mitt Romney by more than 3 points. How polling numbers for Paul will turn out after this result is a myster, but there is a sure thing. If he wants to do well, he needs to do a respectable result in New Hampshire and try to win Nevada thanks to the establishment split.

A bad night for Mitt Romney. He finished in third place, 9 points behind Rick Santorum. That's a depressing news for the former Governor. A victory here would have push Romney to campaign in other states as the frontrunner. But not all is lost. Next state is New Hampshire and it's considered a must win for Romney, even if he can count on Nevada and Florida, according to the most recent polls. Chris Christie was already closing the gap on Mitt Romney, he'll have more momentum after Iowa. But Romney is still holding a small lead over Christie in post-Iowa polls of Granite State. We'll see if it will be enough.

An acceptable result for Newt Gingrich. Next objective of his campaign is exceed the 10% treshold in New Hampshire in order to get some delegates, but the real objective is South Carolina. A bordering, friendly state for Gingrich, where he's still keeping a good lead over Mitt Romney, weakened by Christie's candidacy. But South Carolina is still up for grabs and a Romney victory in New Hampshire might let him to close the gap on Gingrich. Looks like Newt will have to cheer on for Christie when the Granite State will vote.

Good night for Chris Christie, that exceeded his polling numbers in Iowa. He surpassed Rick Perry and was not so away from Gingrich and Romney. But the first objective of Christie campaign was and still is New Hampshire. Post Iowa polls are still showing a lead for Romney in New Hampshire. Christie will have to campaign hard in the Granite State in the next week. A victory here could give him a big boost and would let him to make a strong case with establishment, that is still favoring Romney.

Expected but not so good result for Rick Perry. The Texas Governor decided to skip New Hampshire in order to focus on South Carolina. His polling numbers in the Palmetto state are still declining and the bounce for Santorum after his win doesn't help Perry, but he intends to campaign hard in the next days in South Carolina, hoping for a good result that can let him to be a strong voice on Super Tuesday.

Michele Bachmann, the flavor of August, has fallen under 5% in the state that was supposed to be the main objective of his campaign. After this disappointing result, Bachmann suspended her campaign without making an endorsement.

Final WMUR/UNH New Hampshire Poll (Romney +2)
Mitt Romney 29%
Chris Christie 27%
Ron Paul 17%
Newt Gingrich 10%
Rick Santorum 8%
Rick Perry 1%

[Kingpoleon]

Newtsmentum!

[Senator Cris]

3. First in the nation

“He badly needed it, he gained it.” -- John King

New Hampshire Primary – Final Results
✓ Chris Christie 33.4% (5)
Mitt Romney 31.9% (5)
Ron Paul 15.7% (2)
Rick Santorum 9.5% (0)
Newt Gingrich 8.5% (0)
Rick Perry 0.5% (0)

Chris Christie gained a fundamental victory in the Granite State. New Hampshire was a must-win for Christie: without it, his candidacy would have fallen. The majority of establishment is still favoring Romney, but now he can make a strong case among with donors. This victory led Christie to a major bounce in national polls.

It's still not over for Mitt. He's in to win it, he want it. Now, the objectives are a strong second place in South Carolina, where Gingrich is opening a lead, and a victory in both Nevada and Florida. Polls from Florida are showing that Romney is still ahead, but this bounce for Christie and an eventual bounce for Gingrich after South Carolina might make things more difficult for Romney.

Ron Paul did slightly worse than the polls, but his position has not chanced. He need a strong result in Nevada and possibly to win a state (he is in a close race for the victory with Romney and Christie in Maine). Without a strong result, his campaign would be damaged, but he promised to compete in all 50 states.

The battle among the two conservatives was won by Rick Santorum, who edged Gingrich by a point. Gingrich's efforts are all on South Carolina, where he need to win and to gain a big number of delegates. As expected, a very low result for Rick Perry in New Hampshire. He promised to go in South Carolina for a great result, but a few days before the South Carolina primary, he dropped out of the race and endorsed Newt Gingrich.

Thanks to an aggresive campaign, good debate performances and Perry's endorsements, Gingrich opened a lead in South Carolina, where before of the New Hampshire primary he was battling with Mitt Romney for the lead.

Final PPP South Carolina Poll (Gingrich + 6)
Newt Gingrich 33%
Mitt Romney 27%
Rick Santorum 18%
Ron Paul 8%
Chris Christie 6%

Delegate count
Mitt Romney 9
Chris Christie 8
Rick Santorum 7
Ron Paul 7
Newt Gingrich 6 (3 + 3 Perry delegates)

I have decided to continue this TL. The other TL "The Diary" (a very interesting project) will be updated after "A Different 2012".

[Senator Cris]

4. Still alive

"Don't count me out. Don't count us out. We are in to win it and we will win it!” -- Newt Gingrich

South Carolina Primary – Final Results
✓ Newt Gingrich 39.9% (25)
Mitt Romney 20.6% (0)
Rick Santorum 17.5% (0)
Chris Christie 10.4% (0)
Ron Paul 10.1% (0)

An important victory for Newt Gingrich in the Palmetto State. His margin of victory was more wide than expected: almost 20 points, while the final polls were giving to Gingrich a margin of 6-8 points over Romney. Another important expect is the fact that Gingrich was able to swept all congressional districts, including the most moderate 1st congressional district (here he topped Romney by 4 points) and so swept all 25 delegates at stake in the primary.

Very bad result for Mitt Romney, who hoped to defend a strong 2nd place finish in South Carolina but did a lot worse than the polls. Some of his support gone to Chris Christie, polled at 6% and finished ahead of Ron Paul with more than 10%. This is not a good sign for Romney: now, he has to win Nevada, possibly by a strong margin, and Florida, where Gingrich and Christie are giving him a very competitive race. Expected result in South Carolina for Rick Santorum, finished third ahead of Christie and Paul. The latter one was surpassed by Chris Christie by almost 2000 votes.

Final Suffolk Florida Poll (Romney + 1)
Mitt Romney 26%
Newt Gingrich 25%
Chris Christie 25%
Rick Santorum 12%
Ron Paul 5%

CNN Nevada Poll (Romney + 19)
Mitt Romney 37%
Newt Gingrich 18%
Ron Paul 15%
Chris Christie 14%
Rick Santorum 8%

Delegate count
Newt Gingrich 31
Mitt Romney 9
Chris Christie 8
Rick Santorum 7
Ron Paul 7

Calendar of contests
Jan. 31: Florida
Feb. 4: Nevada
Feb. 7: Colorado, Minnesota, Missouri
Feb. 11: Maine
Feb. 28: Arizona, Michigan
Feb. 29: Wyoming
Mar. 3: Washington
Mar. 6: Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia
Mar. 10: Kansas, Guam, N. Mariana Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands
Mar. 13: Alabama, Hawaii, Mississippi, American Samoa
Mar. 18: Puerto Rico
Mar. 20: Illinois
Mar. 24: Louisiana
Apr. 3: DC, Maryland, Wisconsin
Apr. 24: Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island
May 8: Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia
May 15: Oregon
May 22: Arkansas, Kentucky
May 29: Texas
Jun. 5: California, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota
Jun. 10: Nebraska
Jun. 16: Montana
Jun. 26: Utah

[Senator Cris]

5. Wounded lion

“Third, second, second, second. That's Mitt Romney's record after the first four contests. At this point, I think the real frontrunner is Chris Christie.” -- Chris Matthews

Florida Primary – Final Results
✓ Chris Christie 29.2% (50)
Mitt Romney 27.1% (0)
Newt Gingrich 26.5% (0)
Rick Santorum 12.6% (0)
Ron Paul 4.3% (0)

A great and fundamental victory for Chris Christie in the state of Florida. After a too close to call race that lasted almost all the night, the New Jersey governor gained a narrow victory but all 50 delegates at stake. This victory makes Chris Christie the real frontunner of the primary, instead of Mitt Romney, that gained another second place (it's the third out of four contests). Now, Mitt Romney needs a strong victory in friendly Nevada and in other states like Maine, Minnesota and Colorado, where he won in 2008.

Newt Gingrich came really close, but wasn't able to win. Now, his campaign is moving to Nevada, Missouri and to Super Tuesday, when 10 states including his home state of Georgia will vote. Rick Santorum didn't compete at all in Florida, actively focusing on the trio of Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri, that will vote 3 days after Nevada. Ron Paul will go in Nevada, where the polls are finding his campaign very competitive for second place.

Nevada Caucuses – Final Results
✓ Mitt Romney 35% (10)
Chris Christie 22.5% (6)
Newt Gingrich 17.1% (5)
Ron Paul 16.2% (5)
Rick Santorum 7.7% (2)

The first victory for Mitt Romney arrived a few days his defeat in Florida, as he won the Nevada caucuses by a relatively confortable margin. All candidates except Santorum campaigned in this state and despite the polls showing a close race for second, Christie gained the silver medal with a margin of 5 and 6 points respectively over Gingrich and Paul.

Delegate count
Christie 64
Gingrich 36
Romney 19
Paul 12
Santorum 9

Final Rasmussen Colorado Poll (Romney + 11)
Mitt Romney 30%
Rick Santorum 19%
Chris Christie 13%
Newt Gingrich 12%
Ron Paul 12%

Final SurveyUSA Minnesota Poll (Santorum + 3)
Rick Santorum 24%
Mitt Romney 21%
Ron Paul 19%
Chris Christie 19%
Newt Gingrich 6%

Final PPP Missouri Poll (Santorum + 2)
Rick Santorum 28%
Newt Gingrich 26%
Mitt Romney 15%
Chris Christie 12%
Ron Paul 7%

Final PPP Maine Poll (Romney +2)
Mitt Romney 25%
Chris Christie 23%
Ron Paul 23%
Rick Santorum 12%
Newt Gingrich 5%

[NHI]

Great update! Go Christie!

[_]

Mitt will be crushed by Donut Man.

[Senator Cris]

6. Stunning upset

“Rick Santorum wins 3 out of 3 tonight. It's not easy to remember a so stunning, so surprising campaign” -- Jack Tapper

Colorado Caucuses - Final Results
✓ Rick Santorum 36.4% (12)
Mitt Romney 24% (8 )
Chris Chistie 16.2% (5)
Newt Gingrich 13.1% (4)
Ron Paul 10.2% (4)

Minnesota Caucuses – Final Results
✓ Rick Santorum 29.1% (11)
Chris Christie 25.1% (9)
Ron Paul 23.4% (9)
Mitt Romney 12.8% (5)
Newt Gingrich 9.3% (3)

Missouri non-binding Primary – Final Results
✓ Rick Santorum 34.6%
Newt Gingrich 27.2%
Chris Christie 15.7%
Mitt Romney 12.5%
Ron Paul 9.5%

A stunning result. Rick Santorum won 3 out of 3 contests. The most surprising result is Colorado, where the polls and the 2008 results were giving an advantage to Mitt Romney. In Minnesota, Santorum did better than the polls. Another surprise is the last minute surge of Chris Christie that damaged Mitt Romney: the New Jersey governor finished second and was beaten by just 4 points, Romney gained the fourth place with less than 13%, while polls were giving him at least 20%. Rick Santorum also won the “conservative battle” with Newt Gingrich in the state of Missouri. Santorum did much better than expected even in Missouri.

Maine Caucuses – Final Results
✓ Chris Christie 29.5% (6)
Mitt Romney 27.9% (6)
Ron Paul 22% (5)
Rick Santorum 14.3% (3)
Newt Gingrich 6.2% (1)

A few days later, results came out of Maine and that was another defeat for Romney. Chris Christie barely won the caucuses over the former Massachusetts governor, while Paul gained 22% and a third place in a state where he was well positioned for the win.

Delegate count and map



Chris Christie 84
Newt Gingrich 44
Mitt Romney 38
Rick Santorum 35
Ron Paul 28

Mitt Romney hopes for a rebirth in the next few contests: he's highly favored in Arizona and Idaho and it's in a close race with Rick Santorum in Michigan, his “second home” and in a close race with Christie, Santorum and Paul in the state of Washington. If he wants to well position himself for Super Tuesday and the other races, he needs to do well in those four states.

Final Rasmussen Arizona Poll
Mitt Romney 36%
Rick Santorum 25%
Newt Gingrich 13%
Chris Christie 10%
Ron Paul 9%

Final PPP Michigan Poll
Rick Santorum 34%
Mitt Romney 34%
Chris Christie 11%
Ron Paul 9%
Newt Gingrich 7%

[Senator Cris]

7. Still wounded

“Nobody eight months ago would have predicted a so close race, without a clear favorite on the eve of Super Tuesday” -- Rachel Maddow

Arizona Primary – Final Results
✓ Mitt Romney 34.3% (29)
Rick Santorum 28.4% (0)
Newt Gingrich 15.4% (0)
Chris Christie 12.1% (0)
Ron Paul 8.3% (0)

Michigan Primary – Final Results
✓ Rick Santorum 36.9% (22)
Mitt Romney 32.5% (8 )
Chris Christie 13.9% (0)
Ron Paul 10.1% (0)
Newt Gingrich 5.9% (0)

As expected, Mitt Romney won Arizona, but the real story of the night was his 4-point loss in the state of Michigan to Rick Santorum, that was able to exploit the division of the most moderate electorate between Romney and Christie.

Washington Caucuses – Final Results
✓ Chris Christie 25.4% (11)
Ron Paul 22.3% (9)
Rick Santorum 21.9% (9)
Mitt Romney 21.6% (9)
Newt Gingrich 5.6% (2)

Wyoming Caucuses – Final Results
✓ Mitt Romney 31.6% (8 )
Rick Santorum 31.5% (8 )
Ron Paul 17.5% (5)
Chris Christie 12.1% (3)
Newt Gingrich 6.8% (2)

A few days later, results came out from Washington state and Wyoming. As expected, Romney won Wyoming, but by a 0.1% over Santorum. In Washington, Christie prevaled after a 4-way close race.

Delegate count and map



Chris Christie 98
Mitt Romney 92
Rick Santorum 74
Newt Gingrich 48
Ron Paul 44

Next step is Super Tuesday. Romney hopes to gain victories in Alaska, Idaho, Massachusetts, Ohio and Virginia and to prevail over Christie in the other states that will be won by Santorum and Gingrich. Christie's targets are Alaska, Ohio, Virginia and Vermont. Also he hopes to gain delegates in Massachusetts and in other states. Santorum is campaigning in the South, where he hopes to do well, as does Gingrich: he's a strong favorite in Georgia, but his campaign, after a series of defeats, needs new lifeblood from other southern states like Tennessee, Oklahoma and from Alaska, since he gained the endorsement of Sarah Palin. Paul is competing in North Dakota, Vermont and Virginia, where he can do well since both Gingrich and Santorum will not appear on the ballot.

RCP Rankings – Super Tuesday
Alaska: Toss-up Santorum/Christie/Romney/Paul/Gingrich
Georgia: Solid Gingrich
Idaho: Solid Romney
Massachusetts: Solid Romney
North Dakota: Lean Santorum
Ohio: Toss-up Romney/Santorum/Christie
Oklahoma: Toss-up Santorum/Gingrich
Tennessee: Likely Santorum
Virginia: Lean Christie
Vermont: Lean Christie

Final PPP Georgia Poll
Newt Gingrich 46%
Rick Santorum 19%
Chris Christie 15%
Mitt Romney 14%
Ron Paul 3%

Final YouGov Massachusetts Poll
Mitt Romney 53%
Chris Christie 17%
Ron Paul 9%
Rick Santorum 9%
Newt Gingrich 5%

Final CNN Ohio Poll
Mitt Romney 26%
Chris Christie 25%
Rick Santorum 25%
Newt Gingrich 13%
Ron Paul 7%

Final YouGov Oklahoma Poll
Rick Santorum 31%
Newt Gingrich 28%
Chris Christie 16%
Mitt Romney 13%
Ron Paul 6%

Final Rasmussen Tennessee Poll
Rick Santorum 35%
Newt Gingrich 21%
Mitt Romney 16%
Chris Christie 15%
Ron Paul 8%

Final Marist Virginia Poll
Chris Christie 40%
Mitt Romney 32%
Ron Paul 21%

[TheSaint250]

Make Romney pay ittl for losing iotl

On a serious note great job so far!

[Senator Cris]

8. The winner of Super Tuesday is... President Obama

“The real winner of Super Tuesday is President Obama. The republican field is more divided than ever and nobody wants to give up.” -- Wolf Blitzer

Alaska Caucuses – Final Results
✓ Chris Christie 25.4% (6)
Rick Santorum 23.2% (6)
Mitt Romney 19.4% (5)
Ron Paul 18.7% (4)
Newt Gingrich 13.1% (3)

Georgia Primary – Final Results
✓ Newt Gingrich 45.4% (66)
Rick Santorum 18.8% (4)
Chris Christie 17.5% (5)
Mitt Romney 12.1% (1)
Ron Paul 5.4%

Idaho Caucuses – Final Results
✓ Mitt Romney 50.1% (32)
Chris Christie 18.4% (0)
Rick Santorum 16.1% (0)
Ron Paul 13.5% (0)
Newt Gingrich 1.7% (0)

Massachusetts Primary – Final Results
✓ Mitt Romney 55.5% (28)
Chris Christie 19.2% (10)
Rick Santorum 11.9% (0)
Ron Paul 8.3% (0)
Newt Gingrich 4.1% (0)

North Dakota Caucuses – Final Results
✓ Rick Santorum 38.7% (11)
Ron Paul 25.4% (7)
Chris Christie 13.9% (4)
Mitt Romney 13.7% (4)
Newt Gingrich 8.3% (2)

Ohio Primary – Final Results
✓ Chris Christie 27.4% (26)
Rick Santorum 26% (20)
Mitt Romney 25.7% (17)
Newt Gingrich 12.5% (0)
Ron Paul 7.3% (0)

Oklahoma Primary – Final Results
✓ Rick Santorum 33.1% (19)
Newt Gingrich 26.9% (12)
Chris Christie 18.2% (9)
Mitt Romney 14% (0)
Ron Paul 6.8% (0)

Tennessee Primary – Final Results
✓ Rick Santorum 36.4% (32)
Newt Gingrich 22.8% (15)
Chris Christie 17.9% (8 )
Mitt Romney 13.3% (0)
Ron Paul 7.7% (0)

Vermont Primary – Final Results
✓ Chris Christie 33.4% (17)
Rick Santorum 19.5% (0)
Mitt Romney 19.3% (0)
Ron Paul 19% (0)
Newt Gingrich 6.9% (0)

Virginia Primary – Final Results
✓ Chris Christie 43.4% (25)
Mitt Romney 32.5% (12)
Ron Paul 24.1% (9)

Delegate count and map



Chris Christie 208
Mitt Romney 191
Rick Santorum 166
Newt Gingrich 146
Ron Paul 64

A good night for Chris Christie, who, as expected, won in Vermont and Virginia and gained two battlegrounds: Alaska and expecially Ohio, where he prevailed after a very close 3-way race with Santorum and Romney. Next step are four southern states, where he'll have to defend well and gain some delegates, taking advantage from the Santorum-Gingrich split. Then campaign will go back in friendly territory: Illinois, DC, Maryland and Wisconsin, where he wants to give the final hit to the Romney campaign, and then five northeast states, where he's strongly favored.

A good night for Santorum too. The former Pennsylvania senator easily won in North Dakota and Tennessee, prevaled by a relatively confortable margin in Oklahoma, where the polls were predicting a close race with Gingrich, came really close in Alaska and prevailed over Gingrich, the other big conservative in the race, in all other states. He wants to reenforce his status with solid victories in southern states like Kansas, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana, then he'll have to wait until May, when the calendar goes back in friendly territory.

Not a good night for Mitt Romney. As expected, he won in his home state of Massachusetts and in Idaho, but lost in competitive states like Ohio, Alaska and was behind Christie in all other states. He declared that he has not intention to give up so early, justifying it with the delegate count that shows him in second place, just a few delegates behind Christie. The decisive states for Mitt will be Illinois and the trio of DC, Maryland and Wisconsin. He's planning a strong offensive in those states, trying to stop Christie's momentum. If he'll be able to do that, his campaign will be back on the right track. If not, the negative moment will continue, forcing him to drop out of the race or remaining as a simple viewer while Christie and Santorum battles for the nominaton.

As expected, Gingrich won his home state of Georgia, but lost in Oklahoma and was far from being competitive in the other states. Out of the 4 big candidates, he's the one who has less delegates and Santorum seems to be the conservative favorite. Gingrich, during his speech, declared that results might have been more positive for him, but he's not giving up: the decisive states will be solidly conservative states like Kansas, Alabama and Mississippi, where he needs to win in order to put his campaign back on the right track.

Another bad night for Ron Paul: he gained the silver medal in North Dakota and finished fourth in both Alaska and Vermont, where he hoped to being competitive. Paul is not leaving the race, he promised to go in all fifty states.

Final PPP Alabama Poll
Rick Santorum 33%
Newt Gingrich 32%
Mitt Romney 16%
Chris Christie 13%
Ron Paul 2%

Final ARG Mississippi Poll
Newt Gingrich 31%
Rick Santorum 29%
Chris Christie 17%
Mitt Romney 16%
Ron Paul 2%

[Senator Cris]

9. Conservative unity

“With this move, Newt Gingrich is clearing the field. To prevent Santorum from capitalizing and taking advantage from this, another similar move is needed on the establishment side.” -- Chris Matthews

Kansas Caucuses – Final Results
✓ Rick Santorum 51.9% (25)
Chris Christie 12.9% (3)
Newt Gingrich 12.8% (3)
Mitt Romney 10.9% (3)
Ron Paul 10.4% (3)

The decisive days for the future of Newt Gingrich's campaign started with the Kansas caucuses, and that wasn't a great result for him. As expected, Santorum easily won the caucuses, as he was the only candidate to actively campaign in the state, while Gingrich entirely focused on Alabama and Mississippi, called to vote just three days after Kansas.

Alabama Primary – Final Results
✓ Rick Santorum 35.4% (28)
Newt Gingrich 27.4% (17)
Chris Christie 17% (2)
Mitt Romney 15.5% (0)
Ron Paul 3.1% (0)

Hawaii Caucuses – Final Results
✓ Chris Christie 28.4% (7)
Mitt Romney 24.3% (4)
Rick Santorum 23.9% (3)
Ron Paul 15.7% (1)
Newt Gingrich 7.7% (1)

Mississippi Primary – Final Results
✓ Rick Santorum 33.4% (15)
Newt Gingrich 29.8% (13)
Chris Christie 19.7% (9)
Mitt Romney 13.1% (0)
Ron Paul 2.8% (0)

Newt Gingrich is out. After losing to Rick Santorum in both Alabama and Mississippi, the former Speaker of the House suspended his campaign and endorsed the former Pennsylvania senator, calling on conservatives to gain back the GOP and to defeat Chris Christie and Mitt Romney. Gingrich said that the Republicans and America need a strong conservative that brings home results and that Santorum was the only candidate in the field that can guarantee this and beat President Obama. Santorum thanked Gingrich for the support and jumped ahead in the delegate count. “Finally, conservatives all across this nation can unite behind me, the only candidate that is conservative principled and can beat the incumbent President without betraying his values” said Santorum.

Caucuses and primaries were also held in territories. Mitt Romney won with more than 50% in Puerto Rico and gained all 20 delegates at stake and divided the other territories with Christie, who gained 6 delegates from U.S. Virgin Islands. The delegates of the other territories remain uncommitted. 20 more delegates for Romney, but the next contests are the crucial ones for the former Massachusetts governor: Illinois, DC, Maryland and Wisconsin. He must beat Christie and Santorum and win a number of states.

Delegate count and map



Rick Santorum 417 (237 + 180 Gingrich delegates)
Chris Christie 235
Mitt Romney 218
Ron Paul 68

Final PPP Illinois Poll
Chris Christie 32%
Mitt Romney 30%
Rick Santorum 28%
Ron Paul 5%

Final Rasmussen Maryland Poll
Chris Christie 33%
Rick Santorum 29%
Mitt Romney 27%
Ron Paul 8%

Final Marquette Wisconsin Poll
Rick Santorum 31%
Mitt Romney 30%
Chris Christie 30%
Ron Paul 7%

[_]

Cmon Christie win Wisconsin.

[Senator Cris]

10. Establishment unity

“Finally, we can say that. We have a frontrunner. And he is Chris Christie.” -- Rachel Maddow

Illinois Primary – Final Results
✓ Chris Christie 34.2% (35)
Mitt Romney 29.4% (10)
Rick Santorum 29.2% (9)
Ron Paul 6.7% (0)

Louisiana Primary – Final Results
✓ Rick Santorum 56.9% (20)
Chris Christie 21.2% (0)
Mitt Romney 15.4% (0)
Ron Paul 4.4% (0)

DC Primary – Final Results
✓ Chris Christie 48.9% (16)
Mitt Romney 33.9% (0)
Ron Paul 13.8% (0)

Maryland Primary – Final Results
✓ Chris Christie 36.2% (31)
Mitt Romney 28.2% (3)
Rick Santorum 28% (3)
Ron Paul 6.3% (0)

Wisconsin Primary – Final Results
✓ Chris Christie 31% (27)
Rick Santorum 30.4% (9)
Mitt Romney 28.2% (6)
Ron Paul 8.8% (0)

He's out. Mitt Romney, the big favorite at the start of the primary dropped out of the race and endorsed Chris Christie. The New Jersey governor's decision to enter the race made Romney very angered, but right now he's supporting him. Romney said that the most important thing right now is that the Republicans take back the White House and that Christie was the only candidate able to do that, not Santorum. Romney thanked all of his volunteers, apologized for a campaign that “was not well run, as America didn't understood our message” and called on all of his supporters to support “his friend and great public servant” Chris Christie.

Delegate count and map



Chris Christie 581 (344 + 237 Romney delegates)
Rick Santorum 458
Ron Paul 68

The next five contests are held in the Northeast. According to the most recent polls, Chris Christie is leading by a lot in Connecticut, Delaware, New York and Rhode Island, while Rick Santorum is ahead in his home state of Pennsylvania. Then the primary calendar will be most suitable for Santorum, as Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Oregon, Arkansas, Kentucky and Texas will vote. In the final phase, the calendar will be more good for Christie, as among the states called to vote there will be California and New Jersey.

Final Quinnipiac New York Poll
Chris Christie 57%
Rick Santorum 27%
Ron Paul 9%

Final PPP Pennsylvania Poll
Rick Santorum 46%
Chris Christie 36%
Ron Paul 11%

[_]

YEAH CHRISTIE!!!!

[Senator Cris]

11. It's written Northeast, it's pronounced stronghold

“We are not giving up. We can gain a great number of delegates in the next contests and we'll do that” -- Rick Santorum

Connecticut Primary – Final Results
✓ Chris Christie 65.4% (25)
Rick Santorum 22.3% (0)
Ron Paul 10.3% (0)

Delaware Primary – Final Results
✓ Chris Christie 60.5% (17)
Rick Santorum 27.2% (0)
Ron Paul 9.6% (0)

New York Primary – Final Results
✓ Chris Christie 60.5% (92)
Rick Santorum 28.3% (0)
Ron Paul 10.5% (0)

Pennsylvania Primary – Final Results
✓ Rick Santorum 50% (15)
Chris Christie 38.8% (3)
Ron Paul 10.8% (0)

Rhode Island Primary – Final Results
✓ Chris Christie 64.7% (10)
Ron Paul 20% (4)
Rick Santorum 15.3% (2)

Delegate count and map



Chris Christie 728
Rick Santorum 475
Ron Paul 72

A real stronghold. Chris Christie did really well in the Northeast: over 60% in all states except Santorum's home state of Pennsylvania and expecially a net gain of 130 delegates over Santorum. The next contests, in theory, are favorable to Santorum, but Christie's momentum is making him competitive in states where Santorum was an early favorite. Santorum remains a strong favorite in West Virginia, Arkansas, Kentucky. He's leading in both Indiana and Texas, where Christie is closing the gap but Santorum holds a confortable lead, while Christie is ahead in the state of Oregon. North Carolina is a pure toss-up, with the two major candidates in a dead heat. Right now, winning is not enough for Santorum. He needs not just to win, but to do very well in Texas, the state where the biggest number of delegates is at stake. Other big prize states are North Carolina and Kentucky.

Final SurveyUSA North Carolina Poll (Tie)
Chris Christie 42%
Rick Santorum 42%
Ron Paul 9%

University of Texas Texas Poll (Santorum +8)
Rick Santorum 45%
Chris Christie 37%
Ron Paul 12%

[Senator Cris]

12. Never surrender

“The finish line is getting closer, closer and closer. One last effort and we'll gain the nomination!” -- Chris Christie

Indiana Primary – Final Results
✓ Rick Santorum 44.7% (18)
Chris Christie 38.4% (9)
Ron Paul 13.3% (0)

North Carolina Primary – Final Results
✓ Chris Christie 45.9% (24)
Rick Santorum 42.8% (22)
Ron Paul 10.9% (6)

West Virginia Primary – Final Results
✓ Rick Santorum 56.1% (18)
Chris Christie 30% (5)
Ron Paul 11.3% (0)

Oregon Primary – Final Results
✓ Chris Christie 63.7% (16)
Rick Santorum 21.9% (6)
Ron Paul 11.6% (3)

Arkansas Primary – Final Results
✓ Rick Santorum 51.9% (29)
Chris Christie 33.1% (4)
Ron Paul 12.5% (0)

Kentucky Primary – Final Results
✓ Rick Santorum 49.9% (22)
Chris Christie 32.7% (14)
Ron Paul 13.1% (6)

Texas Primary – Final Results
✓ Rick Santorum 44.2% (67)
Chris Christie 38.9% (59)
Ron Paul 11.6% (18)

Delegate count and map - 1144 to win



Chris Christie 859
Rick Santorum 657
Ron Paul 105

Mixed results for Rick Santorum. He lost in battleground North Carolina, but won in the majority of states at stake during this period. The last win was Texas, but Santorum won it by a closest margin than expected and consequently, the former Pennsylvania Senator reduced the margin in the delegate count from 253 behind to 202 behind Christie, and it's not a great improvement, considered that the next and final states of the campaign are more favorable to Christie.

Christie will not be able to gain the nomination on June 5, when California, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota will vote: even if he sweeps all 264 delegates at stake, he'll go to 1123 delegates, just 21 short of 1144, the magic number. But he'll not sweep all delegates, since both New Mexico and South Dakota have a proportional allocation of delegates.

The New Jersey Governor is a strong favorite in Utah, where all 40 delegates are bound to the statewide winner, so if Santorum doesn't make a great showing in the June 5 states and keeps Christie under 1104 delegates, he'll be done.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Take it to the finish line Grandpa Ron!