NBC/WSJ GOP and Dem poll for IA and NH

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

RIP Kasich

[Landslide Lyndon]

Awful result for Kasich. I thought he was building up a base of support in New Hampshire, but it looks like now that he's not the only one advertising there he's collapsing again.

[Likely Voter]

I think this shows that the normal rules of politics still are in effect and money can work. This time it may be even more important with the debates being spaced so far apart.

[Mr. Morden]

I think this shows that the normal rules of politics still are in effect and money can work. This time it may be even more important with the debates being spaced so far apart.

I actually think money tends to matter a bit less in IA and NH than in other primary states, because the voters get so much candidate attention in the form of personal contact, and the voters are unusually well informed by election day (at least compared to other states) because of all the attention the states get.  It's the bigger states down the road where $ will be more important.

I think this is how Romney at least prevented himself from being blown off the map after losing in both IA and NH in 2008.  Sure, he had the favorite son effect in MI, but his ads definitely seemed to boost his poll #s there.  And then he rebounded in Florida polls based on the ads he bought there before McCain regained momentum in the final days.

[Why]

The polls are still more about name recognition and ease if identifying a candidate rather than real intention to vote.

Trump has lost a bit of support since the last debate and has no hope of going anywhere.

Carson is the same but at least has much better favourability numbers which might keep him towards the lead in the polls but I feel he is really getting some support because he stands out from the crowd and that makes him catch peoples attention and makes him easy to remember.

Fiorina has the same uniqueness factor as Carson, also good debate performances however she will be focused on much more in the next debate due to her standings in the polls. If she continues to perform well she might stay up there for a while but I fail to see her has a real threat to win the nomination. If she does win the nomination then she will get destroyed in the GE.

[Bull Moose Base]

I think this shows that the normal rules of politics still are in effect and money can work. This time it may be even more important with the debates being spaced so far apart.

I actually think money tends to matter a bit less in IA and NH than in other primary states, because the voters get so much candidate attention in the form of personal contact, and the voters are unusually well informed by election day (at least compared to other states) because of all the attention the states get.  It's the bigger states down the road where $ will be more important.

I think this is how Romney at least prevented himself from being blown off the map after losing in both IA and NH in 2008.  Sure, he had the favorite son effect in MI, but his ads definitely seemed to boost his poll #s there.  And then he rebounded in Florida polls based on the ads he bought there before McCain regained momentum in the final days.

Huckabee and Santorum won in Iowa with little money, and McCain must have been heavily outspent in New Hampshire both times he won it. The other thing is it looks like the biggest momentum here is Fiorina and Rubio who haven't spent a lot in ads but did well in front of a huge debate audience (especially Fiorina) and got positive media coverage since.

[Mr. Morden]

I think this shows that the normal rules of politics still are in effect and money can work. This time it may be even more important with the debates being spaced so far apart.

I actually think money tends to matter a bit less in IA and NH than in other primary states, because the voters get so much candidate attention in the form of personal contact, and the voters are unusually well informed by election day (at least compared to other states) because of all the attention the states get.  It's the bigger states down the road where $ will be more important.

I think this is how Romney at least prevented himself from being blown off the map after losing in both IA and NH in 2008.  Sure, he had the favorite son effect in MI, but his ads definitely seemed to boost his poll #s there.  And then he rebounded in Florida polls based on the ads he bought there before McCain regained momentum in the final days.

Huckabee and Santorum won in Iowa with little money, and McCain must have been heavily outspent in New Hampshire both times he won it. The other thing is it looks like the biggest momentum here is Fiorina and Rubio who haven't spent a lot in ads but did well in front of a huge debate audience (especially Fiorina) and got positive media coverage since.

Yes, that's what I mean.  I do think money can make a difference in IA and NH (it's how Romney climbed from the back of the pack to the lead in 2008 Iowa polls in the first place, even though he ended up losing in the end).  But it gets more important in later, bigger states, where the candidates aren't going to have the opportunity to interact with the voters in person.  Nonetheless, it's not necessarily enough even in those later states to overwhelm other factors, such as momentum from IA and NH.

[Likely Voter]

Money works, otherwise the campaigns wouldn't have the candidates spend half their time raising money. Retail politics is very important but Jindal is getting a bump because his campaign has spent a lot in IA on TV. Kasich got a similar bump in NH following his Super PACs spend. Bush is probably getting a bit of a bump too.   Money will be more important down the road, especially on Super Tuesday, but IA and NH are not immune to TV advertising, even today. That being said, it isn't always going to work. I think for candidates like Hillary and Jeb it has a limited effect because they are better known.

[Senator Cris]

Note that Jindal's been airing TV ads in Iowa, while Christie airs ads in NH:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=218607.msg4743145#msg4743145

Bush's Super PAC has been airing ads in all the early states.

Kasich's been running ads in NH, but I think that was more in August than September.  His ad spending has slowed down, and he's got more competition on the airwaves now.

Trump has aired no TV ads yet.  Carson and Fiorina have spent very little on TV ads in the early states.

About Christie: is true that he is airing ads in NH, but he's up 2 points in Iowa, where he's not airing ads, so I think that there is a bit of momentum behind his growth, regardless of the ads.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

In the February NBC poll, Hillary led Sanders 69-13.