NBC/WSJ GOP and Dem poll for IA and NH (user search)
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  NBC/WSJ GOP and Dem poll for IA and NH (search mode)
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Author Topic: NBC/WSJ GOP and Dem poll for IA and NH  (Read 3493 times)
Bull Moose Base
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« on: October 04, 2015, 08:38:34 AM »

Kasich not in top 5 in NH.
Jindal tied with Rubio and Cruz in IA.
Bush 1 point ahead of Rubio in both states.

The big picture is outsiders still dominating but Carson and Fiorina closing in on Trump in IA and NH respectively. Trump goofed. He crassly attacked McCain and a media personality and his numbers climbed, then tried it on popular outsiders and helped them.
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Bull Moose Base
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,488


« Reply #1 on: October 04, 2015, 10:34:34 PM »

I think this shows that the normal rules of politics still are in effect and money can work. This time it may be even more important with the debates being spaced so far apart.

I actually think money tends to matter a bit less in IA and NH than in other primary states, because the voters get so much candidate attention in the form of personal contact, and the voters are unusually well informed by election day (at least compared to other states) because of all the attention the states get.  It's the bigger states down the road where $ will be more important.

I think this is how Romney at least prevented himself from being blown off the map after losing in both IA and NH in 2008.  Sure, he had the favorite son effect in MI, but his ads definitely seemed to boost his poll #s there.  And then he rebounded in Florida polls based on the ads he bought there before McCain regained momentum in the final days.


Huckabee and Santorum won in Iowa with little money, and McCain must have been heavily outspent in New Hampshire both times he won it. The other thing is it looks like the biggest momentum here is Fiorina and Rubio who haven't spent a lot in ads but did well in front of a huge debate audience (especially Fiorina) and got positive media coverage since.
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