Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 25, 2019, 05:38:35 am
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  FL/OH/PA-Quinnipiac: everyone (except Florida) loves Big Ben
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: FL/OH/PA-Quinnipiac: everyone (except Florida) loves Big Ben  (Read 5918 times)
Mr. Morden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 39,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 07, 2015, 06:44:59 am »

Quinnipiac polls of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2287

Florida

Bush 44%
Clinton 43%

Clinton 45%
Carson 43%

Clinton 44%
Fiorina 42%

Rubio 45%
Clinton 44%

Clinton 46%
Trump 41%

Biden 46%
Bush 42%

Biden 45%
Carson 42%

Biden 49%
Fiorina 38%

Biden 46%
Rubio 43%

Biden 52%
Trump 38%

Bush 45%
Sanders 41%

Carson 46%
Sanders 40%

Fiorina 42%
Sanders 41%

Rubio 46%
Sanders 41%

Sanders 46%
Trump 41%

Ohio

Bush 43%
Clinton 41%

Carson 49%
Clinton 40%

Fiorina 43%
Clinton 41%

Rubio 45%
Clinton 41%

Clinton 43%
Trump 42%

Biden 46%
Bush 37%

Carson 46%
Biden 42%

Biden 44%
Fiorina 42%

Biden 46%
Rubio 41%

Biden 49%
Trump 38%

Bush 42%
Sanders 40%

Carson 48%
Sanders 36%

Fiorina 43%
Sanders 39%

Rubio 43%
Sanders 40%

Sanders 43%
Trump 40%

Pennsylvania

Bush 46%
Clinton 40%

Carson 49%
Clinton 40%

Fiorina 45%
Clinton 41%

Rubio 45%
Clinton 42%

Clinton 44%
Trump 42%

Biden 45%
Bush 42%

Carson 47%
Biden 42%

Biden 44%
Fiorina 43%

Biden 45%
Rubio 43%

Biden 50%
Trump 40%

Bush 44%
Sanders 42%

Carson 47%
Sanders 37%

Fiorina 44%
Sanders 40%

Rubio 45%
Sanders 39%

Sanders 46%
Trump 41%
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,805
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2015, 06:45:46 am »

It is interesting that Clinton does better in FL against Bush and Rubio relative to OH and PA.
Logged
Mr. Morden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 39,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2015, 06:50:26 am »

So based on recent polling, Carson leads Clinton in Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania…but not Florida.
Logged
EliteLX
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 970
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.64, S: 0.85

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2015, 07:31:01 am »
« Edited: October 07, 2015, 07:46:12 am by EliteLX »

Bush polling yet again up in OH, FL, and even PA?

Flat out, Jeb can win the GE in 2016. Also, big numbers for PA..
Logged
Mehmentum
Icefire9
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,486
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 07, 2015, 08:46:53 am »

Florida (Average performance)Sad
Biden: +7
Clinton: +1.4
Sanders: -2.2

Rubio: +1.0
Bush: +0.3
Carson: +0.3
Fiorina: -4.0
Trump: -8.0

Ohio:
Biden: +4.6
Clinton: -3.2
Sanders: -3.6

Carson: +8.3
Fiorina: +1.3
Rubio: +0.7
Bush: -1.7
Trump: -5.0

Pennsylvania:
Biden: +2.2
Sanders: -3.4
Clinton: -4.0

Carson: +8.0
Rubio: +2.3
Fiorina: +2.3
Bush: +1.7
Trump: -5.7
Logged
HillOfANight
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,472
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 07, 2015, 09:24:49 am »

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/651759063009787904

They have party ID at 35% GOP, 32% Dem -- even tho state has 1M more reg Dems
Logged
Dave Leip
leip
Administrator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,298
United States


P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 07, 2015, 10:07:30 am »

New Poll: Florida President by Quinnipiac University on 2015-10-05

Summary: D: 46%, R: 42%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
Dave Leip
leip
Administrator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,298
United States


P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 07, 2015, 10:09:54 am »

New Poll: Ohio President by Quinnipiac University on 2015-10-05

Summary: D: 42%, R: 46%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
Dave Leip
leip
Administrator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,298
United States


P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 07, 2015, 10:10:56 am »

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Quinnipiac University on 2015-10-05

Summary: D: 42%, R: 46%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
olowakandi
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 24,197
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 07, 2015, 10:51:56 am »

Clinton leads Trump in all scenarios
Logged
ExtremeConservative
ExtremeRepublican
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,895


Political Matrix
E: 8.39, S: 7.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 07, 2015, 01:43:54 pm »

This isn't the first poll that has showed PA and OH more Republican than FL.  All three are crucial, though, and we can win with just Romney's states and those three.

Interesting that PA is the most GOP of them all.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,782
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 07, 2015, 04:14:58 pm »

B-b-b-b-but wait! Sad According to election analysts on Atlas and Larry Sabato (who never gets it wrong!!!1!), PA will vote at least 1000000 points to the left of turbo-elastic New Hampshire because muh inelasticity, muh demographics, muh presidential year and muh party identification. Sad

Seriously though, I doubt the FL and PA numbers are right. Clinton was trailing Rubio in FL by 12 points in the last QU poll conducted 2 months ago. There's no reason to believe that her numbers have gotten so much better since then. Also, PA isn't going to be more Republican than FL. Just no. However, it will definitely be competitive IMO. (PPP will poll PA this weekend, so we're going to get a clearer picture of what's going on in the state).
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,563
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 07, 2015, 04:59:54 pm »

Yeah, as I said before Q has been weirdly off this year, they're either the only ones right or setting themselves up for some humiliation.
Logged
olowakandi
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 24,197
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 07, 2015, 05:05:15 pm »

Pa numbers are lacking, but poll in OH is encouraging against Trump since it is the key along with Co and NV
Logged
Negusa Nagast 🚀
Nagas
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,792
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 07, 2015, 06:08:14 pm »

Their results have been all over the place, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing. A major problem in 2012 and 2014 was the polls herding together. We need pollsters to put out what they actually found, instead of reweighing or discarding polls that "don't look right."
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,563
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 07, 2015, 06:15:01 pm »

Their results have been all over the place, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing. A major problem in 2012 and 2014 was the polls herding together. We need pollsters to put out what they actually found, instead of reweighing or discarding polls that "don't look right."

Sure - but it is a valid observation they've certainly been expecting severely depressed Dem turnout.
Logged
Negusa Nagast 🚀
Nagas
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,792
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 07, 2015, 07:58:54 pm »

Their results have been all over the place, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing. A major problem in 2012 and 2014 was the polls herding together. We need pollsters to put out what they actually found, instead of reweighing or discarding polls that "don't look right."

Sure - but it is a valid observation they've certainly been expecting severely depressed Dem turnout.

Quinnipiac has been consistently releasing R-leaning polls for quite a while/
Logged
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 42,314
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 07, 2015, 08:22:20 pm »

Clinton leads Trump in all scenarios


As do Sanders and Biden.
Logged
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,885
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 07, 2015, 09:36:41 pm »

The depressed Dem turnout idea might lead to a surprise on election night. Like Hillary going into Election Day down 2% or so and surprising everyone with wins in VA, CO. PA sample here is too white, it won't go red before Ohio.
Logged
Mr. Morden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 39,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 07, 2015, 09:42:18 pm »

What do people mean by depressed Dem. turnout?  Isn't this a poll of registered voters rather than likely voters?
Logged
mencken
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,257
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 07, 2015, 10:27:18 pm »

Their results have been all over the place, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing. A major problem in 2012 and 2014 was the polls herding together. We need pollsters to put out what they actually found, instead of reweighing or discarding polls that "don't look right."

Sure - but it is a valid observation they've certainly been expecting severely depressed Dem turnout.

Quinnipiac has been consistently releasing R-leaning polls for quite a while/

Their final 2014 Florida poll had Crist up by 2. In 2012, they had Obama up by 1 in Florida, 5 in Ohio, and 4 in Pennsylvania. Does not seem particularly indicative of a Republican bias to me.
Logged
olowakandi
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 24,197
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 07, 2015, 11:17:30 pm »

2014 they correctly predicted the Iowa & CO senate polls, but they were off in CO gov race. They have a bias especially in Pa, Ia& CO
Logged
DS0816
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,188
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 08, 2015, 10:30:17 am »

A Republican winning the presidency will carry in the following order: 1) Florida and 2) Ohio. Then, with 3) Pennsylvania, it will depend on the margin in the U.S. Popular Vote.

Take this poll—immediately—and throw it in the trash.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,782
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 08, 2015, 01:06:13 pm »

Lol. Hate to sound like HillOfANight here, but In the Florida poll, Bush is winning the Hispanic sample 44-39, yet only leads Clinton by 1. Like I said before, their PA and FL numbers are junk.
Logged
Torie
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 38,131
Samoa


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 08, 2015, 04:13:42 pm »

Lol. Hate to sound like HillOfANight here, but In the Florida poll, Bush is winning the Hispanic sample 44-39, yet only leads Clinton by 1. Like I said before, their PA and FL numbers are junk.

I assume you know that Pubs do much better with Hispanics in Florida than elsewhere, right? My impression is that Pubs do best with Hispanics in Florida (Cubans), second best in Texas (the culture, and they tend to come from the more conservative parts of Mexico, and many have been US citizens for two, three or more generations now), and third best in Arizona (unusually high percentage of Evangelical Protestant Hispanics there).
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC