Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 18, 2019, 09:27:44 am
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  FL/OH/PA-Quinnipiac: everyone (except Florida) loves Big Ben
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] Print
Author Topic: FL/OH/PA-Quinnipiac: everyone (except Florida) loves Big Ben  (Read 5913 times)
NV less likely to flip than FL/WI
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16,025
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: October 10, 2015, 02:07:15 pm »

Something is definitely fishy about these polls. Unless 2016 is a major realigning year, I can't fathom PA being more Republican than OH, and FL being by far the most Democratic of the three.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,132
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: October 10, 2015, 03:51:28 pm »

Something is definitely fishy about these polls. Unless 2016 is a major realigning year, I can't fathom PA being more Republican than OH, and FL being by far the most Democratic of the three.

We can't reliably predict the timing of realignments. Most realignments of Presidential politics seem to occur under the cover of blowout losses for the Party that has been enduring them. 
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,132
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: October 10, 2015, 05:40:44 pm »

...1976 versus 1992 and 1996. Carter barely got elected in 1976 with the aid of states that would never vote for a Democratic nominee for President for at least forty years. Carter's failed Presidency (the Reagan landslide of 1980 makes that an inevitable judgment) led to three Republican landslides before any Democrat could win again. Oddly, Bill Clinton seems similar in ideology and culture to Jimmy Carter, so it is not a matter of finding a Democratic nominee from the West Coast, Midwest (Mondale from Minnesota in 1984 was a disaster),  or New England (Dukakis from Massachusets in 1988 was a failure).  

These three Democratic wins involve the "New South" -- the South between the 1964 Civil Rights Act and the completion of the success of the Southern Strategy.  



It's not a perfect match (there was a third-party nominee getting lots of votes), but I am showing the one Carter win to the two (Bill) Clinton wins:

Ford, Bush, Dole -- blue
Carter, Clinton once -- pale blue
Carter, Clinton never -- yellow
Ford -- but Clinton twice -- white
Carter, Clinton twice -- red

1992 is about as clearly a Realignment election as any in the lifetimes of any reader of these forums unless one is very old. Few saw 1992 coming, and the 1992 election looked very different from that of 1976. Clinton won a raft of states -- by the 2012-2016 count 162 electoral votes (in white) -- that Carter lost in 1976. Clinton never won any of the 79 electoral votes from states that except for North Carolina voted for Carter but no other Democrat (NC in 2008 for Obama, and then barely) for President since then.

States in white other than Nevada and (once-barely) New Hampshire and New Mexico have never since voted for any Republican for President beginning in 1992.

There have been near-landslide elections for President since 1988: 1992, 1996, and 2008. 2000 and 2004 were close, and it is hard to characterize 2012 (it is close to the median for the winner in Presidential elections since 1900, but it is the only Presidential election really close to the median in electoral votes).

So why do realignments follow a succession of landslide losses?  The winning coalition typically end up with constituencies with diametrically-opposite interests and values on key issues. The winners may take for granted voters that the winners think by nature 'theirs',  that is one way to have dissatisfied voters that the Other Side can pick off.  Thus the Reagan wins depended upon putting together relatively-liberal "Rockefeller Republicans" and Southern fundamentalists who had little in common.  
Logged
olowakandi
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 23,992
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: October 10, 2015, 10:54:05 pm »

Dems will keep Pa, but OH & Va are in play not necessarily FL as Dems dont have to win CO since Clinton is struggling there.
Logged
DS0816
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,188
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: October 11, 2015, 03:56:26 pm »

Something is definitely fishy about these polls. Unless 2016 is a major realigning year, I can't fathom PA being more Republican than OH, and FL being by far the most Democratic of the three.

Gallup was full of *s* in 2012.

We know how reputable Gallup used to be.

Rasmussen Reports was full of *s*, with the most reputable state [Ohio], prior to the first few days of October 2008.

I don't put it past "fishy" poll results to continue to surface from one election cycle after the next.
Logged
madelka
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 355
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: October 11, 2015, 05:45:09 pm »

All Hillary needs is high Black turnout in NoVA, Richmond and Philly and she's got this thing in the bag. Florida and Ohio are irrelevant.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,563
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: October 11, 2015, 10:55:28 pm »

Lol. Hate to sound like HillOfANight here, but In the Florida poll, Bush is winning the Hispanic sample 44-39, yet only leads Clinton by 1. Like I said before, their PA and FL numbers are junk.

I assume you know that Pubs do much better with Hispanics in Florida than elsewhere, right? My impression is that Pubs do best with Hispanics in Florida (Cubans), second best in Texas (the culture, and they tend to come from the more conservative parts of Mexico, and many have been US citizens for two, three or more generations now), and third best in Arizona (unusually high percentage of Evangelical Protestant Hispanics there).

Also you know that Cubans are a decreasing proportion of the Latino vote in Florida and are being replaced by Puerto Ricans, who are heavily democratic voting.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines