My prediction for 2004

[Jacob]

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/PE2004/CAMPAIGN/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=287

That link right there shows my predictions for what will happen in 2004. I believe that the Democratic nominee - probably Dean - will win all of the states that Gore won last time, plus three. I believe Dean will also win New Hampshire barely, West Virginia easily, and Arkansas barely. I say West Virginia because even Dukakis won WV. 2000 was a fluke, and WV will be in the Dem column come 2004, because Dean can neutralize the gun issue. I also think that Nader will not run in 2004, if Dean is the nominee, because that's what he's hinting at it. If Nader does not run, then Dean should win New Hampshire. That gives him 269, and with Clark as his vice-presidential pick, I believe they will win Arkansas also,  and beat Bush.

[zorkpolitics]

Not a bad prediction. I agree Dean is the likely Democrat.  However the rest of your predictions require a close election with Bush and Dean within 2% of each other nationally.  At this point that seems unlikely, Bush will probably beat Dean by >5% since the economy is doing better and Iraq is moving towards power transfer, and troop return.  Plus Bush will be running on a solid record of domestic accomplishment to fulfill his campaign promises (Tax reduction, Education, Medicare, Energy) plus Homeland Security.
But assuming a close election, WV was Bush's most surprising win in 2000 so a return to the Democrats is a good prediction (or is WV the last border state to join the Republican trend?).  However, your choice of NH for Dean seems unlikely given that the latest data in a match-up poll:  Bush crushes Dean in NH 57% to 32%.  Could Clark deliver AR, perhaps not.  Local boys don't always deliver (remember TN and Gore in 2000?) I'd like to see a Match-up poll form AR of Bush v Dean and Bush v Clark, does Clark help?
So at best a Dean/Clark ticket might gain WV and AR for a 271 to 267 win.  But that assumes Dean can hold onto  WI, IA, NM, and OR which Gore won by less than .5%, this is highly unlikely, losing just one of these states translates into a Bush win.

[Jacob]

Not a bad prediction. I agree Dean is the likely Democrat.  However the rest of your predictions require a close election with Bush and Dean within 2% of each other nationally.  At this point that seems unlikely, Bush will probably beat Dean by >5% since the economy is doing better and Iraq is moving towards power transfer, and troop return.  Plus Bush will be running on a solid record of domestic accomplishment to fulfill his campaign promises (Tax reduction, Education, Medicare, Energy) plus Homeland Security.
But assuming a close election, WV was Bush's most surprising win in 2000 so a return to the Democrats is a good prediction (or is WV the last border state to join the Republican trend?).  However, your choice of NH for Dean seems unlikely given that the latest data in a match-up poll:  Bush crushes Dean in NH 57% to 32%.  Could Clark deliver AR, perhaps not.  Local boys don't always deliver (remember TN and Gore in 2000?) I'd like to see a Match-up poll form AR of Bush v Dean and Bush v Clark, does Clark help?
So at best a Dean/Clark ticket might gain WV and AR for a 271 to 267 win.  But that assumes Dean can hold onto  WI, IA, NM, and OR which Gore won by less than .5%, this is highly unlikely, losing just one of these states translates into a Bush win.

All good points. I still think that the Democrat in 2004 will hold almost all if not all of the states that Gore won in 2000.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

WV should go Dem, if only because of the Steel Tariffs...(in 2000 the northern or Wheeling panhandle voted for Bush, which combined with a lower than normal turnout in the Coal District resulted in Bush winning the state. Ain't going to happen next year)

[jravnsbo]

Bush will make a huge puch in states like IA, MN and Wi with the farm billa nd energy bill next year with Ethanol.

NH will go to GOP b/c of MASSIVE TAX INCREASES by the Dem candidates.

Plus with little rift this weekend, Clark may not be ont he ticket.  

Plus OR, NM and PA will be in play and Dems will have to fight hard to hold them also.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm not very worried about PA as the Steel Tariffs BETRAYAL will make a GOP pickup less likely...
However I am very worried about NM and WI.
And I'm not really sure why with WI, I just feel a GOP pickup there is more likely than in MN or IA.
But the election is 11 months off yet...

[© tweed]

Dean could pick up WV, NH, and Ohio, but bush taking Iowa, Wsiconsin, and Minnesota seems much more likely.  Jacob's prediction was a little optimistic.

On thing I have learned is always be a pessimist. Always expect the worst.  That way, when the worst happens, it's what you expected, and when it doesn't happen, it's a welcome surprise.  I had Gore losing bigtime on 11/7/00, losing the states of PA, Wi, MN, IA, Or, NM, adn FLA, all of which he won.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So did I... I thought he would lose all the states you have said plus Michigan, Vermont, Maine, Delaware and New Jersey.

[Gustaf]

Dean could pick up WV, NH, and Ohio, but bush taking Iowa, Wsiconsin, and Minnesota seems much more likely.  Jacob's prediction was a little optimistic.

On thing I have learned is always be a pessimist. Always expect the worst.  That way, when the worst happens, it's what you expected, and when it doesn't happen, it's a welcome surprise.  I had Gore losing bigtime on 11/7/00, losing the states of PA, Wi, MN, IA, Or, NM, adn FLA, all of which he won.

I agree. I always expect the Labour Party to win in Sweden. And guess what? They always do...

[© tweed]

Gustaf-do you support the labor party?

[jravnsbo]

Sounds like normal Democrat thinking nowadays!



On thing I have learned is always be a pessimist. Always expect the worst.  

[JNB]

 With the dollar in the floor, sinking 30+% against the Euro and almost 20% against the Yen since the tariffs were first enacted, the issue may not be that big of a issue. If the nominee is Dean, this his support for gay rights will be a issue.

  Again realpolitik, you dramatically under estimate culture war issues especially in culturally conservative states such as WVA. The Steel issue did not get Bush WVA, it was Gores enviromental policies and the gun issue that got Bush WVA. I do not mean to be insulting realpolitik, but you can not under estimate culture war issues and how it plays in rural white areas.

  I will be the first to agree that Bush should not have backed down from the steel tariffs, but with the dollar sinking so much, that issue is somwhat moot, also unlike the Clintion admin, at least Bush did do somthing, in putting a tariff in place and sinking the dollar.  As long as the Dollar does not rise, the steel industry should be fine, if it avoids mass layoffs betwene now and election time, then the tariffs issue will be moot. Deans enviromental policies that he will support on the others hand will not be moot.

[jravnsbo]

the dollar will rise when Interest rates do and so far Greenspan is indicating no new rate increases.

[CHRISTOPHER MICHAE]

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/PE2004/CAMPAIGN/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=287

That link right there shows my predictions for what will happen in 2004. I believe that the Democratic nominee - probably Dean - will win all of the states that Gore won last time, plus three. I believe Dean will also win New Hampshire barely, West Virginia easily, and Arkansas barely. I say West Virginia because even Dukakis won WV. 2000 was a fluke, and WV will be in the Dem column come 2004, because Dean can neutralize the gun issue. I also think that Nader will not run in 2004, if Dean is the nominee, because that's what he's hinting at it. If Nader does not run, then Dean should win New Hampshire. That gives him 269, and with Clark as his vice-presidential pick, I believe they will win Arkansas also,  and beat Bush.

Again, Clark has specifically stated that he will not be a Vice President. He was on: 'WOLF BLITZER REPORTS, on CNN', the most reliable source for news! He [CLARK] however, would consider Dean as his running mate.

[© tweed]

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/PE2004/CAMPAIGN/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=287

That link right there shows my predictions for what will happen in 2004. I believe that the Democratic nominee - probably Dean - will win all of the states that Gore won last time, plus three. I believe Dean will also win New Hampshire barely, West Virginia easily, and Arkansas barely. I say West Virginia because even Dukakis won WV. 2000 was a fluke, and WV will be in the Dem column come 2004, because Dean can neutralize the gun issue. I also think that Nader will not run in 2004, if Dean is the nominee, because that's what he's hinting at it. If Nader does not run, then Dean should win New Hampshire. That gives him 269, and with Clark as his vice-presidential pick, I believe they will win Arkansas also,  and beat Bush.

Again, Clark has specifically stated that he will not be a Vice President. He was on: 'WOLF BLITZER REPORTS, on CNN', the most reliable source for news! He [CLARK] however, would consider Dean as his running mate.

NOBODY wants Dean as their running mate.  They hate him.  Plus he may overshadow them to some degree.

[CHRISTOPHER MICHAE]

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/PE2004/CAMPAIGN/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=287

That link right there shows my predictions for what will happen in 2004. I believe that the Democratic nominee - probably Dean - will win all of the states that Gore won last time, plus three. I believe Dean will also win New Hampshire barely, West Virginia easily, and Arkansas barely. I say West Virginia because even Dukakis won WV. 2000 was a fluke, and WV will be in the Dem column come 2004, because Dean can neutralize the gun issue. I also think that Nader will not run in 2004, if Dean is the nominee, because that's what he's hinting at it. If Nader does not run, then Dean should win New Hampshire. That gives him 269, and with Clark as his vice-presidential pick, I believe they will win Arkansas also,  and beat Bush.

Jacob, this is micma9, my new IM address is MMAKI007. I am online now, if you want to chat. So, change micma9 to MMAKI007.

[jravnsbo]

Well after tiff with Dean Campaign manager, looks dimmer for Clark to be Dean's VP.  Plus his ego as with many generals isn't used to playing second fiddle to anyone.

I don't think Clark would pick Dean as a vp either.

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/PE2004/CAMPAIGN/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=287

That link right there shows my predictions for what will happen in 2004. I believe that the Democratic nominee - probably Dean - will win all of the states that Gore won last time, plus three. I believe Dean will also win New Hampshire barely, West Virginia easily, and Arkansas barely. I say West Virginia because even Dukakis won WV. 2000 was a fluke, and WV will be in the Dem column come 2004, because Dean can neutralize the gun issue. I also think that Nader will not run in 2004, if Dean is the nominee, because that's what he's hinting at it. If Nader does not run, then Dean should win New Hampshire. That gives him 269, and with Clark as his vice-presidential pick, I believe they will win Arkansas also,  and beat Bush.

Again, Clark has specifically stated that he will not be a Vice President. He was on: 'WOLF BLITZER REPORTS, on CNN', the most reliable source for news! He [CLARK] however, would consider Dean as his running mate.

[CHRISTOPHER MICHAE]

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/PE2004/CAMPAIGN/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=287

That link right there shows my predictions for what will happen in 2004. I believe that the Democratic nominee - probably Dean - will win all of the states that Gore won last time, plus three. I believe Dean will also win New Hampshire barely, West Virginia easily, and Arkansas barely. I say West Virginia because even Dukakis won WV. 2000 was a fluke, and WV will be in the Dem column come 2004, because Dean can neutralize the gun issue. I also think that Nader will not run in 2004, if Dean is the nominee, because that's what he's hinting at it. If Nader does not run, then Dean should win New Hampshire. That gives him 269, and with Clark as his vice-presidential pick, I believe they will win Arkansas also,  and beat Bush.

Again, Clark has specifically stated that he will not be a Vice President. He was on: 'WOLF BLITZER REPORTS, on CNN', the most reliable source for news! He [CLARK] however, would consider Dean as his running mate.

NOBODY wants Dean as their running mate.  They hate him.  Plus he may overshadow them to some degree.

He couldn't even overshadow Warren G. Harding.

[StevenNick]

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/PE2004/CAMPAIGN/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=287

That link right there shows my predictions for what will happen in 2004. I believe that the Democratic nominee - probably Dean - will win all of the states that Gore won last time, plus three. I believe Dean will also win New Hampshire barely, West Virginia easily, and Arkansas barely. I say West Virginia because even Dukakis won WV. 2000 was a fluke, and WV will be in the Dem column come 2004, because Dean can neutralize the gun issue. I also think that Nader will not run in 2004, if Dean is the nominee, because that's what he's hinting at it. If Nader does not run, then Dean should win New Hampshire. That gives him 269, and with Clark as his vice-presidential pick, I believe they will win Arkansas also,  and beat Bush.

I don't envision Dean picking up any Bush states.  In fact, I think he'll lose three or four Gore states.  In the event of a Bush-Dean match up expect Bush to win Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and New Mexico.  Dean's pro-gay marriage and anti-tax cut positions will kill him in many of the more socially conservative or moderate states.  He won't have a prayer in WV, Arkansas, or New Hampshire.  The voters in those states simply will not vote for a man who is even remotely pro-gay marriage.  His dovishness on Iraq isn't going to help him in those states, either.

I don't think Bush is going to win a landslide over Dean, but I do think he's going to win.  Unless some disaster befalls the Bush campaign, I don't think Dean can win.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

 With the dollar in the floor, sinking 30+% against the Euro and almost 20% against the Yen since the tariffs were first enacted, the issue may not be that big of a issue. If the nominee is Dean, this his support for gay rights will be a issue.

  Again realpolitik, you dramatically under estimate culture war issues especially in culturally conservative states such as WVA. The Steel issue did not get Bush WVA, it was Gores enviromental policies and the gun issue that got Bush WVA. I do not mean to be insulting realpolitik, but you can not under estimate culture war issues and how it plays in rural white areas.

  I will be the first to agree that Bush should not have backed down from the steel tariffs, but with the dollar sinking so much, that issue is somwhat moot, also unlike the Clintion admin, at least Bush did do somthing, in putting a tariff in place and sinking the dollar.  As long as the Dollar does not rise, the steel industry should be fine, if it avoids mass layoffs betwene now and election time, then the tariffs issue will be moot. Deans enviromental policies that he will support on the others hand will not be moot.

I'm not taking lessons from you.

[JNB]

 Realpolitik, I am in Ohio, I go to Soruthren Ohio, within 20 miles from the WVA for my job almost every day, I am far closer to the area that you are, and trust me, the people out there are far to the right on cultural issues than even mainstream Republicans. You may wish to ignore me realpolitik, but I live in the area, you do not. Just as I would not comment about the UK since I do not know anything about the local politics there, you should read up more at the very least about the local politics in WVA.

   While Dean may have some cover on the gun issue, the cultural issues such as gay rights and issues such as the enviroment will hurt him badly in states like WVA and Ohio.

[© tweed]

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/PE2004/CAMPAIGN/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=287

That link right there shows my predictions for what will happen in 2004. I believe that the Democratic nominee - probably Dean - will win all of the states that Gore won last time, plus three. I believe Dean will also win New Hampshire barely, West Virginia easily, and Arkansas barely. I say West Virginia because even Dukakis won WV. 2000 was a fluke, and WV will be in the Dem column come 2004, because Dean can neutralize the gun issue. I also think that Nader will not run in 2004, if Dean is the nominee, because that's what he's hinting at it. If Nader does not run, then Dean should win New Hampshire. That gives him 269, and with Clark as his vice-presidential pick, I believe they will win Arkansas also,  and beat Bush.

Again, Clark has specifically stated that he will not be a Vice President. He was on: 'WOLF BLITZER REPORTS, on CNN', the most reliable source for news! He [CLARK] however, would consider Dean as his running mate.

NOBODY wants Dean as their running mate.  They hate him.  Plus he may overshadow them to some degree.

He couldn't even overshadow Warren G. Harding.

Yes he could.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Isn't it a little hypocritical to critize someone for not living near a certain area, and then to call for a ban on immigration?

[CHRISTOPHER MICHAE]

Isn't it a little hypocritical to critize someone for not living near a certain area, and then to call for a ban on immigration?

The two seem interrelated, but they are different things. We don't want Illegal Immigrants, not Immigrants. So, if you want to come to America to live, you'd be more than welcome, as long as you do it the legal way.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

While Dean may have some cover on the gun issue, the cultural issues such as gay rights and issues such as the enviroment will hurt him badly in states like WVA and Ohio.

Because you think all the people living there are stupid, inbred hicks or something?
What a wonderfull view of humanity you have.
While you are in favour of a party that makes so much sense...

BTW I have looked into the politics of WV and my conclusions are pretty obvious.
But not to you.