snapshot poll: Is Hillary 45?

[Mr. Morden]

Ftr, most of the online betting sites give Clinton a less than 50% chance of winning.  Here are the top six on Betfair, winning individual:

Clinton 42.6
Bush 12.5
Sanders 11.4
Rubio 11.1
Biden 9.5
Trump 7.2

Some of that is from conditional probabilities that won't materialize. Biden isn't running for the nomination, so all of that basically goes to Hillary, bringing her up to 52.1. Most of the Sanders line would go to her too, and Sanders is unlikely to win the primary, which should realistically bring her to over 60%.

Well, I certainly agree that if you rate Clinton's chances of winning the nomination at ~100%, then she's more than 50% likely to win the general election.

But I don't think it is quite ~100%.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Depends on the GOP candidate obviously. Rubio would beat her.

[Bull Moose Base]

Depends on the GOP candidate obviously. Rubio would beat her.

I bet if he's nominated, he does worse than Romney.

[Slander and/or Libel]

Ftr, most of the online betting sites give Clinton a less than 50% chance of winning.  Here are the top six on Betfair, winning individual:

Clinton 42.6
Bush 12.5
Sanders 11.4
Rubio 11.1
Biden 9.5
Trump 7.2

Some of that is from conditional probabilities that won't materialize. Biden isn't running for the nomination, so all of that basically goes to Hillary, bringing her up to 52.1. Most of the Sanders line would go to her too, and Sanders is unlikely to win the primary, which should realistically bring her to over 60%.

Well, I certainly agree that if you rate Clinton's chances of winning the nomination at ~100%, then she's more than 50% likely to win the general election.

But I don't think it is quite ~100%.

Do you think Biden's chances of winning the nomination and then going on to win the general are anywhere near 9.5%?

[bobloblaw]

YES: Hillary is now inevitable and I congratulate her pending election as first female leader of the free world

Never heard of Maggie Thatcher have you. And oh yes she was a leader of the free world in the dark days of the cold war and soviet expansionism of the late 70s and early 80s

[bobloblaw]

Depends on the GOP candidate obviously. Rubio would beat her.

I bet if he's nominated, he does worse than Romney.

So which state does Romney win but Rubio lose? The only close Romney state was NC

[Lief 🗽]

YES: Hillary is now inevitable and I congratulate her pending election as first female leader of the free world

Never heard of Maggie Thatcher have you. And oh yes she was a leader of the free world in the dark days of the cold war and soviet expansionism of the late 70s and early 80s

Margaret Thatcher sucked, dude.

[bobloblaw]

YES: Hillary is now inevitable and I congratulate her pending election as first female leader of the free world

Never heard of Maggie Thatcher have you. And oh yes she was a leader of the free world in the dark days of the cold war and soviet expansionism of the late 70s and early 80s

Margaret Thatcher sucked, dude.

Best thing that ever happened to the UK. She got Britain out from under the awful economy of the 1970s, gripped by inflation, state run companies and out of control unions.

[OSR stands with Israel]

YES: Hillary is now inevitable and I congratulate her pending election as first female leader of the free world

Never heard of Maggie Thatcher have you. And oh yes she was a leader of the free world in the dark days of the cold war and soviet expansionism of the late 70s and early 80s

Margaret Thatcher sucked, dude.

Best thing that ever happened to the UK. She got Britain out from under the awful economy of the 1970s, gripped by inflation, state run companies and out of control unions.

Churchill was the best thing that ever happened to the UK: Without him I think Britain might have surrendered to the Nazis

[Fritz]

Depends on the GOP candidate obviously. Rubio would beat her.

Hillary will squash him like a bug.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

YES: Hillary is now inevitable and I congratulate her pending election as first female leader of the free world

Never heard of Maggie Thatcher have you. And oh yes she was a leader of the free world in the dark days of the cold war and soviet expansionism of the late 70s and early 80s

Margaret Thatcher sucked, dude.

Best thing that ever happened to the UK. She got Britain out from under the awful economy of the 1970s, gripped by inflation, state run companies and out of control unions.

She was a lightweight who got lucky.

[dudeabides]

If I had to guess....

[RFayette]

No, not unless the GOP nominates a lunatic.

That's unfortunately probably gonna happen . The GOP base will vote for a lunatic this time( Trump, Carson, Cruz, Fiorina) then let sane people like Kasich,Rubio get the nomination.

So the GOP will nominate both a lunatic and a sane person at the same time?

Did you even get what I meant, I clearly said that the GOP will nominate a lunatic over sane people like Kasich or Rubio

No, I didn't get what you meant, because I don't think it was clear.  I was legit confused by your sentence, because you seem to have left out a "rather".  I take it what you meant was?:

"The GOP base will vote for a lunatic this time( Trump, Carson, Cruz, Fiorina) rather than let sane people like Kasich,Rubio get the nomination."

I think he means that in 2016, a "lunatic" will get the GOP nomination, but someone like Rubio/Kasich will win it in 2020.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

No, not unless the GOP nominates a lunatic.

So that's a yes then?

I'm guessing that Rubio can do a pretty good imitation of "not a lunatic" and rumor has it that Jeb can too.

[bobloblaw]

YES: Hillary is now inevitable and I congratulate her pending election as first female leader of the free world

Never heard of Maggie Thatcher have you. And oh yes she was a leader of the free world in the dark days of the cold war and soviet expansionism of the late 70s and early 80s

Margaret Thatcher sucked, dude.

Best thing that ever happened to the UK. She got Britain out from under the awful economy of the 1970s, gripped by inflation, state run companies and out of control unions.

Churchill was the best thing that ever happened to the UK: Without him I think Britain might have surrendered to the Nazis

Ok post 1945.

[bobloblaw]

YES: Hillary is now inevitable and I congratulate her pending election as first female leader of the free world

Never heard of Maggie Thatcher have you. And oh yes she was a leader of the free world in the dark days of the cold war and soviet expansionism of the late 70s and early 80s

Margaret Thatcher sucked, dude.

Best thing that ever happened to the UK. She got Britain out from under the awful economy of the 1970s, gripped by inflation, state run companies and out of control unions.

She was a lightweight who got lucky.

Gee what does that say about Neil Kinnock, James Callaghan and the ever popular Michale Foot.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

YES: Hillary is now inevitable and I congratulate her pending election as first female leader of the free world

Never heard of Maggie Thatcher have you. And oh yes she was a leader of the free world in the dark days of the cold war and soviet expansionism of the late 70s and early 80s

Margaret Thatcher sucked, dude.

Best thing that ever happened to the UK. She got Britain out from under the awful economy of the 1970s, gripped by inflation, state run companies and out of control unions.

She was a lightweight who got lucky.

Gee what does that say about Neil Kinnock, James Callaghan and the ever popular Michale Foot.

Lightweights who got unlucky of course

[Torie]

If this is a 50-50 bet (where I don't get odds), I would refuse to make the bet. The expected rate of return is way too low for me. In other words, I really don't have any idea. There are just, way, way, too many loose cannons rolling around, here, there and everywhere. There has been no more weird election cycle for POTUS in my lifetime, and that has been a very long life.

[Higgs]

Depends on the GOP candidate obviously. Rubio would beat her.

I bet if he's nominated, he does worse than Romney.

So which state does Romney win but Rubio lose? The only close Romney state was NC

I like how there was no response to this. If Hillary does win it's gonna be closer than 2012. My guess in a Rubio vs. Clinton race is this:

Rubio gets 301 EVs to Clinton's 237. Pennsylvania is very close.

[Ljube]

Depends on the GOP candidate obviously. Rubio would beat her.

I bet if he's nominated, he does worse than Romney.

So which state does Romney win but Rubio lose? The only close Romney state was NC

I like how there was no response to this. If Hillary does win it's gonna be closer than 2012. My guess in a Rubio vs. Clinton race is this:

Rubio gets 301 EVs to Clinton's 237. Pennsylvania is very close.

Rubio could also win Nevada.

[TarHeelDem]

Tagging this thread for when Pennsylvania is not close.

[Cory]

No guarantee, but way more likely than any other individual.

[bobloblaw]

Depends on the GOP candidate obviously. Rubio would beat her.

I bet if he's nominated, he does worse than Romney.

So which state does Romney win but Rubio lose? The only close Romney state was NC

I like how there was no response to this. If Hillary does win it's gonna be closer than 2012. My guess in a Rubio vs. Clinton race is this:

Rubio gets 301 EVs to Clinton's 237. Pennsylvania is very close.

If it is closer, it will be the first time since 1904, that the party in power for 2 full terms got a higher % of the vote in their third attempt and won by a bigger margin.

[MT Treasurer]

Tagging this thread for when Pennsylvania is not close.

If Pennsylvania isn't close, the election isn't close. Period.