South Korean (early) presidential election (9 May 2017)

[jaichind]

The latest poll from Korea Research has Moon 39 Ahn 32 Hong (Liberal) 9 so Ahn is catching up fast.  I suspect that the Liberal are under-polling this election cycle.  The old Saenuri base is not gone but just gone underground for a while although this election will vote tactically.

[kelestian]

I expect low turnout from the right. Park's voters are in despair, and Saenuri has broken

It's interesting what will Moon do with THAAD system? He isn't a big fan of deployment

[DC Al Fine]

I know the party system is in flux, with the cuckoo banana bird scandal, but can someone give me a rough idea of how the major demographics vote?

[kelestian]

m.news.nate.com/view/20170405n45319?list=edit&cate=tot

last poll
Moon Jae-in 38.0%
Ahn Cheol-soo 34.4%
Hong Jun-pyo 10.4%
Sim Sang-jung 3.6%
Yoo Seung-min 2.1%

Head to head:
Ahn Cheol-soo 47.0%
Moon Jae-in 40.8%

[jaichind]

I know the party system is in flux, with the cuckoo banana bird scandal, but can someone give me a rough idea of how the major demographics vote?

Most regionally based.  Jeolla always vote center-left (like 90-10) while Yeongnam always vote center-right (like 70-30.)  Other regions lean center-right with Greater Seoul tend to be a swing district.  Third parties (progressive or liberal parties) tend to do well in Greater Seoul as well aside from the traditional center-right and center-left mainstream parties.

[Vosem]

I know the party system is in flux, with the cuckoo banana bird scandal, but can someone give me a rough idea of how the major demographics vote?

Most regionally based.  Jeolla always vote center-left (like 90-10) while Yeongnam always vote center-right (like 70-30.)  Other regions lean center-right with Greater Seoul tend to be a swing district.  Third parties (progressive or liberal parties) tend to do well in Greater Seoul as well aside from the traditional center-right and center-left mainstream parties.

Didn't this pattern break in the 2014 legislative elections? Or is it expected to be business as usual, back to normal in the presidential race?

EDIT: How much of the old Saenuri vote is tactically backing Ahn to prevent a Moon victory? Also, it seems like Ahn is much likelier than Hong to make the runoff with Moon and the conventional wisdom is that right-wing voters would back him to prevent a Moon victory. Is Ahn favored now? Also, how much of Ahn's support is coming from the old leftist strongholds in Jeolla?

[jaichind]

I know the party system is in flux, with the cuckoo banana bird scandal, but can someone give me a rough idea of how the major demographics vote?

Most regionally based.  Jeolla always vote center-left (like 90-10) while Yeongnam always vote center-right (like 70-30.)  Other regions lean center-right with Greater Seoul tend to be a swing district.  Third parties (progressive or liberal parties) tend to do well in Greater Seoul as well aside from the traditional center-right and center-left mainstream parties.

Didn't this pattern break in the 2014 legislative elections? Or is it expected to be business as usual, back to normal in the presidential race?

EDIT: How much of the old Saenuri vote is tactically backing Ahn to prevent a Moon victory? Also, it seems like Ahn is much likelier than Hong to make the runoff with Moon and the conventional wisdom is that right-wing voters would back him to prevent a Moon victory. Is Ahn favored now? Also, how much of Ahn's support is coming from the old leftist strongholds in Jeolla?

You mean 2016? Any the answer is not really.  People's Party(PP) (Ahn's party) and Democratic Party (DPK) were the center-left parties while Saenuri was the center-right party.  As expected Saenuri was nowhere in Jeolla  where PP and DPK split the vote while  Saenuri  over performed in  Yeongnam.  One of the theory I had about why PP and DPK did well was that neither was seen as "The Jeolla Party" since they split the vote there. There are significant negativity toward Jeolla from the rest of ROK, especially in non-Soeul ROK. 

[jaichind]

Gallup Korea poll

Moon   38
Ahn     35
Hong     7

[kelestian]

Some news

1) Moon Jae-in held significant advantage in all recent polls

2) Moon Jae-in created two maps for Starcraft (korean national game)
http://www.espn.com/esports/story/_/id/19201166/south-korean-presidential-front-runner-taps-starcraft-fans-two-new-maps

3) His campaign made some covers for popular k-pop songs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qj-KAOS3F8s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wF8Zqu7LyhM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-PNhO4ZFsw

same for Yoo Seong-min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tzjgEV6G-Uc

[Lachi]

I'd be fine with either Moon or Ahn winning here, as they are both good candidates.

[jaichind]

It seems that the Saenuri (now Liberal) candidate is polling better which is deadly for Ahn's chance since only a total Saenuri (now Liberal) collapse would give Ahn a chance.

[jaichind]

Japanese political blog has polling average curves between Moon (Blue) Ahn (Green) and Hong (Red)

 

Clearly, the Ahn surge is gone and Hong vote holding up.  Looks like Moon is headed for a victory.

The two minor candidates are

Center-Left Justice Party Sim (Yellow) and Center-Right Bareun Party Yoo (Light Blue)

[kelestian]

Japanese political blog has polling average curves between Moon (Blue) Ahn (Green) and Hong (Red)

 

Clearly, the Ahn surge is gone and Hong vote holding up.  Looks like Moon is headed for a victory.

The two minor candidates are

Center-Left Justice Party Sim (Yellow) and Center-Right Bareun Party Yoo (Light Blue)

Hong raising is surprise for me; on the last debate other candidatures criticized him a lot (there was a controversy about  his role in a friend's attempted rape 45 years ago)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Apparently Ahn is really surprisingly awful debater, which doesn't help him.

Also Moon sadly has decamped to the homophobic side now.

[peterthlee]

I'm eyeing for Moon >50% and Ahn at around 28-32%.
Moon will crack 55 in Seoul (last time he won 51-48 against then god-tier candidate Park).
However, in the Jeolla region, Moon could not get high 80 to 90 as Ahn has a small fraction of liberal votes.

[jaichind]

Gallup

Moon   40
Ahn     24
Hong    12


Realmeter

Moon   44.4
Ahn     22.8
Hong    13

Hong seems to be surging as some of the old Saenuri Party vote comes back as Ahn falls further behind.  

Updated chart

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Trump just killed the conservatives tbh.

[kelestian]

Trump just killed the conservatives tbh.

Not Trump but Park Geun-Hye and not now but six months ago)

[jaichind]

KSOI

Moon   41.4
Ahn     22.1
Hong   16.6


Realmeter

Moon   42.6
Ahn     20.9
Hong   16.7

Ahn continues to fall as Hong surge continues.  Moon mostly holding steady

[kelestian]

Extremely high number of early votes. (25% compare to 12,2% during 2016 parliamentary election)
Moon Jae-In promised free hugs action today

[Lachi]

Going back to the debate, what did you guys think about the part when the LGBT issue came up? I honestly thought it was disgusting, but then again it is South Korea we are talking about...

[H. Ross Peron]

Voting is currently underway in South Korea.

[jaichind]

Exit polls will be out in 8 min.  Looks like turnout is around 75.1%

[jaichind]

Exit polls

Moon  41,4
Ahn   21.8
Hong  23.3

[jaichind]

Hong beat the odds and came in second.  The old  Saenuri vote is down but not out and if and when Moon stumbles will come back.