South Korean (early) presidential election (9 May 2017)

[jaichind]

Complete Exit polls

Moon  41.4  (Center-Left Democratic party)
Hong  23.3  (Center-right Liberty Party (has both pro- and anti- Park factions, Hong is anti-Park)
Ahn   21.8  (Centrist People's party)
Yoo     7.1   (Conservative Bareun party (anti-Park))
Sim     5.9   (Leftist Justice party)

[jaichind]

The center-right will spend the next few years working out how to fuse the pro- and ant- Park factions into a single unified party which will involve merging Liberal Party and Bareun Party.  That gives Moon a few years without a real center-right opposition.  But once the center-right get their act together and if and when Moon stumbles they will be back as a political force, most likely by the next election in 2022.

[jaichind]

It seems that Park, who is in jail, is cut off from TV so she does not even, right now, know the results of the exit polls.  She will be allowed to read the papers tomorrow and learn that Moon won in a landslide.

[kelestian]

Any maps for result?

[Tender Branson]

It seems that Park, who is in jail, is cut off from TV so she does not even, right now, know the results of the exit polls.  She will be allowed to read the papers tomorrow and learn that Moon won in a landslide.

Ahh, I guess some of the prison employees will tell her the results before tomorrow ...

[jaichind]

Any maps fo result?

http://info.nec.go.kr/

But it is all in Korean.  Of course the voting patterns are regional based in ROK so it is easy to work out who got what as the results come in.

[jaichind]

Turnout adjusted to 77.2%

[jaichind]

Exit polls by age.  Moon (Blue) very strong in the 20s and 30s while Hong (Red) won 60s and 70+

[jaichind]

Exit polls by region.  Hong won the Southeast Gyeongsang    and Daegu regions and Moon won everything else.  Such is the strength of the Moon landslide that the old center-right regions of Busan and Ulsan in the Southeast as well as Gangwon in the Northeast went Moon as well.  Hong beaten into third place in Seoul as expected.

In 1997 and 2002 when the center-right narrowly lost the map looked like


Where the center-right GNP won Busan, Ulsan, and Gangwon

Hong getting low single digits in Jeolla is just funny to look at.  In Jeolla the center-right usually gets around 10% but now with the center-right vote split and dispirited Hong is down to around 2%.

[peterthlee]

Wow, Gangwon, which went to Park with an obliteration of 62-38 in 2012, yielded to Moon this time. Haha!

[Tintrlvr]

Moon is also from Busan, which may explain why he was able to flip it.

[kelestian]

english map!
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/election/index.html

Hong on the 5th place in Gwangju

Funny live coverage
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lo7tgFI8Q9I

[jaichind]

So far on a regional basis Hong is exceeding exit polls.  Given the Park embarrassment affect this does not surprise me.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Age breakdown:

http://i.imgur.com/n8Hcyev.jpg

[jaichind]

So far Hong is doing about what exit poll suggested in old Center-Right strongholds in the Southeast and Northeast.  It is in Great Soeul areas where he is doing 3%-4% so far better than exit polls.  If there is a shy Hong affect it would be in the urban areas.  This seems to be panning out so far.

[kelestian]

Hong second in Seoul.

[jaichind]

As more votes comes it in seems Hong is beating exit polls across the board.

[Beet]

Uh, is there any chance Hong could actually win? IIRC he's an admitted date rapist.

[jaichind]

Uh, is there any chance Hong could actually win? IIRC he's an admitted date rapist.

No way.  He is too far behind in Greater Soeul to win.  But will most likely win a vote share 2%-3% higher than the exit polls (which is a lot better than polls last few days) suggest which is a sort of a personal victory.

[jaichind]

Hong slowly converging toward exit polls in Greater Soeul even though he is still over performing there by around 2%-3%

[Sorenroy]

english map!
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/election/index.html

So... uh... what's going on with the Southwest (North & South Jeolla Provence and Gwangju)? Hong Joon-pyo is in a pretty comfortable second place outside of that area, but is in fourth in that area (fifth in Geangju). For someone unfamiliar with South Korean politics, what is going on down there?

[jaichind]

english map!
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/election/index.html

So... uh... what's going on with the Southwest (North & South Jeolla Provence and Gwangju)? Hong Joon-pyo is in a pretty comfortable second place outside of that area, but is in fourth in that area (fifth in Geangju). For someone unfamiliar with South Korean politics, what is going on down there?

That is the Southwest Jeolla area.  This is an area that is often looked down upon by other regions, especially from the Southeast and Northeast ROK.  The Park regime in the 1960s and 1970s has was made up of people outside of  Jeolla who always got the short end of the stick.  Since the ROK center-right are political decedents of the Park regime  Jeolla always vote 90-10 anti-Right.

[jaichind]

With almost half the vote counted it is

Moon  39.58
Hong  26.27
Ahn   21.29
Yoo      6.48
Sim     5.8

[mgop]

this is first time that south korea have left-wing president. this is probably good for united korea talks.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

this is first time that south korea have left-wing president. this is probably good for united korea talks.

Moon is just as left-wing as Roh and arguably Kim Dae-jung. Bit the liberal party is broad church - they oppose chaebols largely, but they aren't socially democratic or anything.