The circumtances where your state will become a tossup

[bagelman]

What will the circumstances be the next time your state goes tossup? Try to keep it as soon as possible. What will your reaction be?

Ohio:
In 2016, it would be in any standard competitive election. Alternatively it could be Clinton vs. Kasich in which Clinton manages to campaign well.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Oregon

If its a very anti Democratic year or if the Republican incumbent has 54-55+% approval rating(Bush had 50% approval and only lost Oregon by 4% in 2004

Democrats nominate a fringe candidate(Sanders) and Republicans nominate a moderate(Kasich)

3rd party splits the Democratic Vote

[Mr. Smith]

It pretty much is a toss-up actually.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Of course I live in the most schizophrenic state in the nation. Depends on who the parties nominate and whether or not Hispanics lean D or go solidly D in the general will determine if the state goes R or D in the general

[DC Al Fine]

Nova Scotia: The Liberals make cuts to Unemployment Bemefits... *sigh*

[Kingpoleon]

If: Mike Beebe runs for Senate in 2016, while Boozman faces a Tea Party challenger or two and a moderate challenger in the primaries. Tea Partier and businessman Curtis Coleman runs an independent campaign , and he garners five to ten percent in most polls. Beebe wins 47-46-7.

From here, Marco Rubio is elected President in 2016, and a minor recession occurs from 2017-2018. Blanche Lincoln is elected Governor in 2018 as Rubio's approval rating in Arkansas hits 45-51, and 43-52 nationwide. Lincoln wins 49-47. While it recovers some by January 2020, it is still 49-46 in Arkansas and 45-50 nationwide.

Senator Brian Schatz runs and wins the nomination after a contested primary fight against Senator Julian Castro, Governor Blanche Lincoln, Representative Jared Polis, and a few fairly minor others. He picks Blanche Lincoln as his running-mate.

On Election Day, 2020, Rubio's approval rating is 47-48 in Arkansas and 46-49 nationwide.

297: Senator Brian Schatz(D-HI)/Governor Blanche Lincoln(D-AR) - 50.1%
241: President Marco Rubio(R-FL)/Governor Ed Gillespie(R-VA)- 48.7%
Other: 1.1%

[Bismarck]

Popular democrat with Joe Donnely on the ticket takes on extremely unpopular nonmidwestern republican who makes inflammatory statements.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It is reliable like Ca; it will be a tossup if there's a Reaganess opponent. RATHERFORD was the start of something new for GOP in IL before the scandal. Now, its a Dem lock

[Ebsy]

If: Mike Beebe runs for Senate in 2016, while Boozman faces a Tea Party challenger or two and a moderate challenger in the primaries. Tea Partier and businessman Curtis Coleman runs an independent campaign , and he garners five to ten percent in most polls. Beebe wins 47-46-7.

From here, Marco Rubio is elected President in 2016, and a minor recession occurs from 2017-2018. Blanche Lincoln is elected Governor in 2018 as Rubio's approval rating in Arkansas hits 45-51, and 43-52 nationwide. Lincoln wins 49-47. While it recovers some by January 2020, it is still 49-46 in Arkansas and 45-50 nationwide.

Senator Brian Schatz runs and wins the nomination after a contested primary fight against Senator Julian Castro, Governor Blanche Lincoln, Representative Jared Polis, and a few fairly minor others. He picks Blanche Lincoln as his running-mate.

On Election Day, 2020, Rubio's approval rating is 47-48 in Arkansas and 46-49 nationwide.

297: Senator Brian Schatz(D-HI)/Governor Blanche Lincoln(D-AR) - 50.1%
241: President Marco Rubio(R-FL)/Governor Ed Gillespie(R-VA)- 48.7%
Other: 1.1%

This is the most absurd thing I have seen in my time on Atlas.

[Free Bird]

Maine: ME-2 probably would be competitive if the GOP put any money into it. The right type of Republican could very well take it if that happens.

New Hampshire: It is. Deal with it, TNVolunteer.

Connecticut: Either Jodi Rell is somehow the nominee, or the Democrat actively insults the State while eating a baby on live television. Even then, only maybe.

[Bigby]

Georgia:

Democratic hopes of higher amounts of black and hispanic votes becomes true and the Republican is particularly bad.

[YaBoyNY]

Maine: ME-2 probably would be competitive if the GOP put any money into it. The right type of Republican could very well take it if that happens.

New Hampshire: It is. Deal with it, TNVolunteer.

Connecticut: Either Jodi Rell is somehow the nominee, or the Democrat actively insults the State while eating a baby on live television. Even then, only maybe.

lol

It's cute when you're wrong.

[RINO Tom]

Maine: ME-2 probably would be competitive if the GOP put any money into it. The right type of Republican could very well take it if that happens.

New Hampshire: It is. Deal with it, TNVolunteer.

Connecticut: Either Jodi Rell is somehow the nominee, or the Democrat actively insults the State while eating a baby on live television. Even then, only maybe.

lol

It's cute when you're wrong.

Not exactly a substantive response...

[Free Bird]

Maine: ME-2 probably would be competitive if the GOP put any money into it. The right type of Republican could very well take it if that happens.

New Hampshire: It is. Deal with it, TNVolunteer.

Connecticut: Either Jodi Rell is somehow the nominee, or the Democrat actively insults the State while eating a baby on live television. Even then, only maybe.

If it's a swing state, why does it never, you know, "swing" lol?

Anyway.

Tennessee

1. Democrats nominate a very conservative nominee while the GOP nominates a Collins- or Kirk-type Republican and the Republican candidate runs a god-awful campaign and it's a big Democratic wave.  
2. A third-party candidate who acts as a spoiler.

Montana

1. It was pretty close in 2008, it's not THAT Republican. You'll probably need a big Democratic wave and a Joe Manchin/Joe Donnelly Democrat to win here. Clinton, though? Haha no.
2. See: Tennessee

Kelly Ayotte, Judd Gregg, Frank Guinta, and probably Chris Sununu say hi

[YaBoyNY]

Maine: ME-2 probably would be competitive if the GOP put any money into it. The right type of Republican could very well take it if that happens.

New Hampshire: It is. Deal with it, TNVolunteer.

Connecticut: Either Jodi Rell is somehow the nominee, or the Democrat actively insults the State while eating a baby on live television. Even then, only maybe.

lol

It's cute when you're wrong.

Not exactly a substantive response...

Certainly more substantive than a fantasy where New Hampshire is a tossup.

[RINO Tom]

> Saying state with split government that's always close is a solid state for one party...

[RINO Tom]

Maine: ME-2 probably would be competitive if the GOP put any money into it. The right type of Republican could very well take it if that happens.

New Hampshire: It is. Deal with it, TNVolunteer.

Connecticut: Either Jodi Rell is somehow the nominee, or the Democrat actively insults the State while eating a baby on live television. Even then, only maybe.

lol

It's cute when you're wrong.

Not exactly a substantive response...

Certainly more substantive than a fantasy where New Hampshire is a tossup.

It's closer to a tossup than what TN Vol paints it as, but yes it has the slightest of D tilts.

[Kingpoleon]

If: Mike Beebe runs for Senate in 2016, while Boozman faces a Tea Party challenger or two and a moderate challenger in the primaries. Tea Partier and businessman Curtis Coleman runs an independent campaign , and he garners five to ten percent in most polls. Beebe wins 47-46-7.

From here, Marco Rubio is elected President in 2016, and a minor recession occurs from 2017-2018. Blanche Lincoln is elected Governor in 2018 as Rubio's approval rating in Arkansas hits 45-51, and 43-52 nationwide. Lincoln wins 49-47. While it recovers some by January 2020, it is still 49-46 in Arkansas and 45-50 nationwide.

Senator Brian Schatz runs and wins the nomination after a contested primary fight against Senator Julian Castro, Governor Blanche Lincoln, Representative Jared Polis, and a few fairly minor others. He picks Blanche Lincoln as his running-mate.

On Election Day, 2020, Rubio's approval rating is 47-48 in Arkansas and 46-49 nationwide.

297: Senator Brian Schatz(D-HI)/Governor Blanche Lincoln(D-AR) - 50.1%
241: President Marco Rubio(R-FL)/Governor Ed Gillespie(R-VA)- 48.7%
Other: 1.1%

This is the most absurd thing I have seen in my time on Atlas.

Thank you for your responsive substance and criticism.

[ElectionsGuy]

The Democrats have a Braley-like gaffe about farmers or rural folk and end up losing by more than 2 points.

[Clark Kent]

> Saying state with split government that's always close is a solid state for one party...

Maine? Nevada? Wisconsin? Montana? All swing states?

Wisconsin and Nevada? As much as Democrats don't want to admit it, yes. Maine and Montana aren't what I would call swing states, but under the right circumstances, they could be close.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Tennessee:
The Democrat wins 65-35 nationally or if in a Manchin vs. Kirk-type election, Manchin presents himself as more conservative (especially socially).  He probably then sweeps East Tennessee and does well in West Tennessee (Memphis, especially).  Middle Tennessee might be a little tougher for him (with rich, conservative suburbanites in Williamson and Rutherford Counties), but he would probably still split that vote and do decently in Nashville proper.

Other states that I have ties to:

Pennsylvania: See reality

North Carolina: Obama '08-type enthusiasm happens again

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

If: Mike Beebe runs for Senate in 2016, while Boozman faces a Tea Party challenger or two and a moderate challenger in the primaries. Tea Partier and businessman Curtis Coleman runs an independent campaign , and he garners five to ten percent in most polls. Beebe wins 47-46-7.

From here, Marco Rubio is elected President in 2016, and a minor recession occurs from 2017-2018. Blanche Lincoln is elected Governor in 2018 as Rubio's approval rating in Arkansas hits 45-51, and 43-52 nationwide. Lincoln wins 49-47. While it recovers some by January 2020, it is still 49-46 in Arkansas and 45-50 nationwide.

Senator Brian Schatz runs and wins the nomination after a contested primary fight against Senator Julian Castro, Governor Blanche Lincoln, Representative Jared Polis, and a few fairly minor others. He picks Blanche Lincoln as his running-mate.

On Election Day, 2020, Rubio's approval rating is 47-48 in Arkansas and 46-49 nationwide.

297: Senator Brian Schatz(D-HI)/Governor Blanche Lincoln(D-AR) - 50.1%
241: President Marco Rubio(R-FL)/Governor Ed Gillespie(R-VA)- 48.7%
Other: 1.1%

Indiana would be blue and vote Rubio in this scenario thank you very much.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Popular democrat with Joe Donnely on the ticket takes on extremely unpopular nonmidwestern republican who makes inflammatory statements.

Joe Donnelly will be "lucky" to get reelected in 2018 here because of the Iran deal.

[bagelman]

Tennessee:
The Democrat wins 65-35 nationally or if in a Manchin vs. Kirk-type election, Manchin presents himself as more conservative (especially socially).

The Democrats have a Braley-like gaffe about farmers or rural folk and end up losing by more than 2 points.

Georgia:

Democratic hopes of higher amounts of black and hispanic votes becomes true and the Republican is particularly bad.

wow this maps are hilarious and tragically wrong

[Sasquatch]

When pigs fly.