The circumtances where your state will become a tossup
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  The circumtances where your state will become a tossup
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Author Topic: The circumtances where your state will become a tossup  (Read 12296 times)
morgieb
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« Reply #75 on: January 26, 2016, 08:26:20 AM »

Actual state (New South Wales): It pretty much is. Or at least it's close. Once Labor lose the spectre of corruption and/or state Liberals start to get unpopular I presume it'll return to its previous tossup state.

Atlasia/family state (California): God knows. Would basically require the Republicans to make huge inroads into the Hispanic vote and the Bay Area to get nuked (OK the second part is a bit morbid and OTT, but you get what I mean). Also the Republicans need to improve their suburban appeal. So it isn't happening bar a 60/40 election.
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Vern
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« Reply #76 on: January 26, 2016, 09:39:45 AM »

Trump is the republican candidate
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Miles
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« Reply #77 on: January 26, 2016, 10:05:39 AM »

If Bobby Jindal was the R nominee, but that may even push it to Lean D.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #78 on: January 26, 2016, 01:36:29 PM »

For Minnesota, an uninspiring democrat (i.e. the old hag) vs. a moderate republican (Kasich, Christie, a higher-energy version of Jeb!, maybe Paul) would do it. Sanders would win by 6-10 against pretty much anyone though.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #79 on: January 26, 2016, 02:02:59 PM »

See Bruce Rauner's election - a moderate Republican in a low turnout election (which would probably require a Democrat that is both unappealing personally and not liberal enough to energize the base).
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #80 on: January 27, 2016, 05:19:14 AM »

California never becomes a tossup in presidential races. However, I can see moderate GOPers being elected at the state level. Arnie is a great example. Somebody like Faulconer might be competative in a gubernatorial contest.
In a Clinton mid-term, do you think Faulconer could beat Newsom or Feinstein better?

Depends on the circumstances. If President Hillary’s approval is below 50% in CA and Faulconer runs a good campaign, he might pull off a narrow victory. If he’s popular like Baker in MA, he’ll win an easy reelection.
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TJ in Oregon
TJ in Cleve
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« Reply #81 on: January 27, 2016, 10:00:39 PM »

Clinton vs Rubio would probably make WI a tossup. Sanders would beat Trump by 15 points though.
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omegascarlet
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« Reply #82 on: March 23, 2016, 04:57:56 PM »

Looking at polls, Trump getting the nomination may be enough.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #83 on: March 24, 2016, 04:36:09 PM »

Michigan -- incumbent Democrat has a scandal.
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Keep cool-idge
Benjamin Harrison he is w
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« Reply #84 on: November 16, 2017, 05:03:35 PM »

Well we now know that the stuff about republicans needing a popular vote margin of plus 3 in Michigan Wisconsin and Pennsylvania is not true.
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DPKdebator
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« Reply #85 on: November 16, 2017, 05:08:08 PM »

Charlie Baker, especially if the Democrat isn't a progressive.
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Skunk
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« Reply #86 on: November 16, 2017, 06:14:30 PM »

White people are banned from voting.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #87 on: November 16, 2017, 06:37:24 PM »

Hillary vs. Trump...
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #88 on: November 16, 2017, 06:51:24 PM »

When republicans make heavy inroads into the suburban counties and Chicago shrinks a bit.
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15 Down, 35 To Go
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #89 on: November 16, 2017, 06:55:24 PM »

I think we now know the answer for Alabama
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Dr. MB
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« Reply #90 on: November 16, 2017, 07:06:57 PM »

John Kasich vs Hillary Clinton might put it within 4 or 5 points.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #91 on: November 16, 2017, 08:19:24 PM »

Literally just exist
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TexArkana
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« Reply #92 on: November 17, 2017, 01:30:25 PM »


Nope.  Clinton won the white vote in California.
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
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« Reply #93 on: November 17, 2017, 02:07:03 PM »

For Virginia to become a toss-up, I think the Republican nominee needs to be a moderate who can make serious inroads in NOVA. it's quite simple, actually.
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Keep cool-idge
Benjamin Harrison he is w
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« Reply #94 on: November 17, 2017, 02:31:07 PM »

My state would take the following things to make it a swing state

First of all the republican has 60% or higher approval on Election Day

Second the republican is Winning the popular vote by 6 points

Third of all a popular republican from Washington as the VP cough Dino Rossi cough if he was actually elected governor.
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TPIG
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« Reply #95 on: November 17, 2017, 02:45:10 PM »

My state is sadly on its way to becoming a tossup. If the current trend of metro ATL population growth continues (and minorities continue to vote for Democrats by similar margins), GA will be a true tossup by as early as 2024.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #96 on: November 17, 2017, 02:46:00 PM »

It's already fairly competitive in down-ballot and statewide/Senate races, but it would probably take a Democratic landslide to flip it in a presidential race. Assuming they somehow won their respective party's nomination without changing their political views, then I would say a JBE (D)/Heidi Heitkamp (D) ticket would stand a good chance of winning MT against a Charlie Baker (R)/Phil Scott (R) ticket or something like that. Or maybe Bill Kristol (R) vs. literally any Democratic nominee other than Clinton, lol.
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cvparty
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« Reply #97 on: November 17, 2017, 02:48:04 PM »


Nope.  Clinton won the white vote in California.
narrowly, so it'd be competitive
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omegascarlet
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« Reply #98 on: November 17, 2017, 03:13:38 PM »

For Virginia to become a toss-up, I think the Republican nominee needs to be a moderate who can make serious inroads in NOVA. it's quite simple, actually.

Does this involve using child porn?
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
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« Reply #99 on: November 17, 2017, 04:12:41 PM »

My state is sadly on its way to becoming a tossup. If the current trend of metro ATL population growth continues (and minorities continue to vote for Democrats by similar margins), GA will be a true tossup by as early as 2024.
I think it'll go blue, or come very close to it, the next time a Democrat wins the White House. whether that's in 2020 or 2024, I obviously don't know.
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