The circumtances where your state will become a tossup
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  The circumtances where your state will become a tossup
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Author Topic: The circumtances where your state will become a tossup  (Read 12299 times)
Anzeigenhauptmeister
Hades
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #100 on: November 17, 2017, 06:22:25 PM »

The day Angela Merkel dies.
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jfern
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« Reply #101 on: November 18, 2017, 12:14:51 AM »

A Democratic President says: "North Korea is not a threat".

The next day North Korea carpet nukes the entire California coast, killing almost everyone within 50 miles of the coast.

That might do it.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #102 on: November 18, 2017, 12:56:18 AM »

When the Democrats go all out with the Sun Belt Strategy and manage to flip Tarrant County.
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kcguy
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« Reply #103 on: November 18, 2017, 09:49:02 AM »

A series of events that starts with all the foreign-born meatpacking workers in southwestern Kansas being deported and ends with Trump defending Melania for shooting a nun on live television.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #104 on: November 18, 2017, 11:56:45 AM »

When Mexican immigration stops being an issue.
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Metalhead123
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« Reply #105 on: November 19, 2017, 02:11:09 AM »

Nominate Bob Menendez
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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #106 on: November 20, 2017, 11:24:20 AM »

MD only becomes a tossup in midterm years when D turnout is depressed, the D nominee is below-average quality, and the R nominee is an above-average candidate. AKA Hogan.

MD would probably only be a tossup in a presidential election if the D nominee has a huge scandal that turns off suburbanites in the Washington and Baltimore suburbs and the R nominee is socially center-left and centrist on economic issues.
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TML
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« Reply #107 on: November 29, 2017, 12:05:45 AM »
« Edited: November 29, 2017, 12:08:39 AM by TML »

NY may be a tossup when all of the following conditions are true:

-The Republicans win all suburban/exurban counties surrounding NYC proper.
-They win 30% of the vote in NYC proper.
-They win counties containing some major upstate cities (as of now, I believe the following upstate counties can be considered "locks" for Democrats: Erie, Monroe, Onondaga, Tompkins, Albany, Schenectady).

I think this can only happen with a Republican nominee who adopts socially liberal positions.
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Kamala
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« Reply #108 on: November 29, 2017, 12:13:50 AM »

Republican-caused dust bowl and relatively local Dem (Minnesota or Iowa or something.)
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dw93
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« Reply #109 on: November 29, 2017, 12:21:56 AM »

It would take Chicago going the way of Detroit, which would cause Cook County to decline in Population. You would also need the GOP to moderate or go Libertarian on Social Issues, doing so make the Democrats less competitive in the Suburbs.
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Keep cool-idge
Benjamin Harrison he is w
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« Reply #110 on: November 29, 2017, 01:27:39 AM »

It would take Chicago going the way of Detroit, which would cause Cook County to decline in Population. You would also need the GOP to moderate or go Libertarian on Social Issues, doing so make the Democrats less competitive in the Suburbs.
All you need is cook County to go bye bye and the gop wins.
Romney and trump won Illinois outside Cook county.
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MassTerp94
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« Reply #111 on: November 29, 2017, 01:17:42 PM »

Short answer: LOL.

Long answer: The only way MA would go Republican in a presidential election year would be if Governor Charlie Baker somehow won the Republican nomination for president. Yeah, not happening. While he's fiscally conservative (to a degree), he's socially very liberal, which alone precludes any chance of him winning the nomination...which is sad, because Baker would make a decent president.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #112 on: November 29, 2017, 01:36:43 PM »

Its more interesting to discuss how it wouldn't.
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
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« Reply #113 on: November 29, 2017, 06:08:02 PM »

For Virginia to become a toss-up, I think the Republican nominee needs to be a moderate who can make serious inroads in NOVA. it's quite simple, actually.

Does this involve using child porn?
That's probably not a good strategy for winning in Virginia... maybe in Alabama, though.
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President of the civil service full of trans activists
Peebs
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« Reply #114 on: December 04, 2017, 08:36:20 AM »

If it only counts as lean R, a good year for the Democrats.
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
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« Reply #115 on: December 04, 2017, 04:20:28 PM »

If it only counts as lean R, a good year for the Democrats.
I'd say North Carolina is Tilt-R at this point. Clinton would've won it in 2016 if she had just gotten higher turnout from blacks and college-educated whites.
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