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December 15, 2019, 11:47:22 pm
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  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
  100 Senate Seats by population
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Author Topic: 100 Senate Seats by population  (Read 8145 times)
bagelman
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« Reply #50 on: October 21, 2015, 09:16:36 pm »

How does one make DRA work on Chrome now?

Is there a silverlight extension for Chrome? If not then no way.
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #51 on: October 21, 2015, 10:18:07 pm »
« Edited: October 21, 2015, 11:19:47 pm by traininthedistance »


That District 1 is quite the... noncontiguous... something. A better map would send District 1 into northern Queens (much of which is pretty suburban), and District 2 would be SI, Brooklyn, and southern Queens. 

Is it possible to draw a majority latino district in FL?

Yes, it is quite trivially easy.



District 5 is now 53.3% Hispanic, 53.6% VAP.  And I'm pretty sure it could go higher if you were willing to chop more.

(2 and 3 are 14 and 12K off, now, but with districts that large it's still well under 1%.  The Broward split is entirely along muni lines.)
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muon2
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« Reply #52 on: October 21, 2015, 10:24:11 pm »

How does one make DRA work on Chrome now?

Is there a silverlight extension for Chrome? If not then no way.

Microsoft ceased development for Silverlight a couple of years ago and Chrome disabled Silverlight this year. MS Edge doesn't support Silverlight either if you use it on Win 10.
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Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #53 on: October 21, 2015, 11:03:47 pm »

Was there anything wrong with my Virginia map?
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Miles
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« Reply #54 on: October 21, 2015, 11:06:45 pm »

Was there anything wrong with my Virginia map?

Not saying your's is wrong, but earlier in the thread, I posted a similar map but didn't split and counties.
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Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #55 on: October 21, 2015, 11:58:11 pm »

Was there anything wrong with my Virginia map?

Not saying your's is wrong, but earlier in the thread, I posted a similar map but didn't split and counties.

Huh.. I could swear there was no VA map posted. Thanks for the information.
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muon2
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« Reply #56 on: October 22, 2015, 04:39:13 am »

muon, I think having rationality and commonality are more important than having perfect counties. Having northern Cook (inner suburbs) and Kane (outer suburbs) together like that without any of DuPage looks weird to me.

Here's what I was going for: for the second, it was the city of Chicago + some inner suburbs. The 3rd was the closest suburbs to Chicago. The 4th was Northern Illinois + exurbs. The 1st was downstate. Its not perfect, but it works. I'm not going to worry about having full counties when its very inconvenient.

I agree with rationality. Your 3rd CD (inner suburbs) really isn't that. The suburbs have more commonality splitting north-south than inner outer. The Cubs vs White Sox line reflects real political divisions, too. Besides minority considerations, it's a good way to split Cook. If the state is in charge of the split it is more likely to go this way.

Kane county's population is more inner suburbs than outer suburban. The Fox valley is a collection of old industrial towns that grew, but were overtaken by the suburbs of Chicago in the 1980's and 90's. This includes 2 of the 4 old satellite cities: Aurora and Elgin along with Waukegan and Joliet. That population is not exurban.

On the downstate-upstate line I don't see why it is inconvenient to have whole counties.
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dpmapper
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« Reply #57 on: October 22, 2015, 07:56:13 am »


Kane county's population is more inner suburbs than outer suburban. The Fox valley is a collection of old industrial towns that grew, but were overtaken by the suburbs of Chicago in the 1980's and 90's. This includes 2 of the 4 old satellite cities: Aurora and Elgin along with Waukegan and Joliet. That population is not exurban.

This is quite an exaggeration, muon.  Elgin's population has more than doubled since 1960.  Aurora's has more than tripled.  They used to be industrial towns, and still have some of that feel in spots (albeit nothing like, say, Cicero), but the recent population growth is almost entirely purely suburban/exurban subdivision stuff. 

And the rest of Kane County (the Tri-cities, etc.) can hardly be described as industrial. 

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rpryor03
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« Reply #58 on: October 22, 2015, 08:02:11 am »

Is it possible to draw a majority latino district in FL?

It sure is!



CD 1: McCain 57.7%, Obama 42.3% - Safe R
CD 2: Obama 51.4%, McCain 48.6% - Tossup/Lean R
CD 3: Obama 50.8%, McCain 49.2% - Lean R
CD 4: Obama 53.1%, McCain 46.9% - Tossup
CD 5: Obama 62.2%, McCain 37.8% - Safe D (Hispanics at 52.3%)
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muon2
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« Reply #59 on: October 22, 2015, 08:53:39 am »


Kane county's population is more inner suburbs than outer suburban. The Fox valley is a collection of old industrial towns that grew, but were overtaken by the suburbs of Chicago in the 1980's and 90's. This includes 2 of the 4 old satellite cities: Aurora and Elgin along with Waukegan and Joliet. That population is not exurban.

This is quite an exaggeration, muon.  Elgin's population has more than doubled since 1960.  Aurora's has more than tripled.  They used to be industrial towns, and still have some of that feel in spots (albeit nothing like, say, Cicero), but the recent population growth is almost entirely purely suburban/exurban subdivision stuff. 

And the rest of Kane County (the Tri-cities, etc.) can hardly be described as industrial. 


A lot of the housing built in the 1960's-1970's was small-lot affordable housing that catered to working families. Much of Aurora's more  exurban recent growth was in DuPage and Will counties. Aurora township in Kane has a density of 4200/sq mi which is in the range of Thornton township (3600/sq mi) that borders Chicago on the south and Worth which borders Chicago on the southwest (4800/ sq mi). Elgin's older area sits in both Kane and Cook, so a township comparison is more difficult.

Though the 1800's industry along the Fox in the Tri Cities is largely gone, the east side of the Fox Valley around the DuPage Airport has one of the larger light industrial areas in the region. There's no question that the areas west of Randall Rd in Kane are modern exurbs spilling into ag land, but most of the county lives east of that line and they look like older suburbs such as one finds in the band within a few miles of Chicago proper (eg Des Plaines).
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Torie
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« Reply #60 on: October 22, 2015, 09:01:49 am »
« Edited: October 22, 2015, 02:46:53 pm by Torie »

Except that the VRA does not apply to plurality districts, and Illinois does not have a Florida type law, so you are making a political-policy choice here.

Well, you split Los Angeles into 3 districts for no apparent reason, too.  

I dissent from the party line that counties need to be kept whole but cities do not - especially where city boundaries cross county lines.  I think incorporated cities should be kept whole first, to avoid the largest cities from having undue influence over the rest of the state. People have more allegiance to their city than their county, anyway.  

The part of Chicago in DuPage County has little to no population, anyway, so putting O'Hare in a Chicago-only district would be a microchop of a county at best- and utterly meaningless if the few people who used to live near the airport in DuPage Chicago have been moved due to the runway reconfiguration project, anyway.  Who cares if boundaries cross county lines to keep a city intact if nobody lives there?

It's impossible to keep LA City whole due to its shape going down to the harbor, and trapping the coastal cities. Even without the trapping issue, the city in 2010 has about 200,000 too many people to be all in one district anyway. In addition, the VRA drives the Hispanic San Gabriel Valley district, and it needs to take in some of LA City to get to a high enough Hispanic percentage, and that is certainly the case if one wants to avoid an erose mess. Otherwise I would not have done that chop, because I am sensitive to tri-chopping anything, including a city. Counties rule over cities in the metric that Muon2 and I set up, and in addition, putting aside the VRA, there should be but one muni chop between districts. Your mileage varies, which is fine. Different strokes for different folks.

I might add that the Kern-Santa Barbara-Ventura district has about 27% of its population in LA city, so the city is hardly dominating. The Hispanic San Gabriel Valley based district has about 19% of its population in the city.
I think you should put Compton and Carson in the OC district, then you could move the LA boundary east and the San Gabriel district south.

Also, I would swap Contra Costa and San Mateo.

That would reduce the chop by the San Gabriel district into LA City (but not eliminate it), and would reduce the Hispanic percentage to perhaps unacceptably low numbers, and make the the OC district more erose, without having much impact on the westside LA City dominated district.

Here is a CA  version incorporating Jimrtexís idea about the split of the Bay area. Half dozen one way or the other whether chopping San Mateo or Contra Costa is best in my view. There are plusses and minuses to each. As to Jimrtex's second suggestion, putting Carson in the OC district works OK, but not Compton, because it generates an ugly municipal chop. In addition, this map has the partisan skew right, per Muon2ís methodology, so the OC district cannot fall below 1.5% Pub PVI, and if it did, I would have Pubbed it up to get it back up. Thus Compton needs to stay out in all events, and arguably Carson too, but I will let it go since the 1.5% hurdle was met. I have no doubt that my CA-05 is more Dem now than it was in 2008, so it is now clearly a Dem lean district, in a way that the OC district might not be going the other way (the OC district overall probably has not trended much since 2008 overall). CA-07 cannot fall below 58% HVAP, so its lines into LA City as drawn are close to mandatory unless one wants to get considerably more ugly and erose. Nothing else quite gets there, although perhaps by now, the district might be up to 60% HVAP.

It's interesting that 9 of the 10 districts have more Asians than blacks. Is there any state in the US other than Hawaii that has more Asians than blacks at this point? Maybe in Washington and Oregon?


 
 
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VPH
vivaportugalhabs
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« Reply #61 on: October 24, 2015, 05:53:56 pm »

How does one make DRA work on Chrome now?

Is there a silverlight extension for Chrome? If not then no way.

Microsoft ceased development for Silverlight a couple of years ago and Chrome disabled Silverlight this year. MS Edge doesn't support Silverlight either if you use it on Win 10.

Wait, so what browser will actually run it nowadays?
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Miles
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« Reply #62 on: October 24, 2015, 05:56:17 pm »

^ I always use Internet Explorer for it now.
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bagelman
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« Reply #63 on: October 24, 2015, 11:06:59 pm »

How does one make DRA work on Chrome now?

Is there a silverlight extension for Chrome? If not then no way.

Microsoft ceased development for Silverlight a couple of years ago and Chrome disabled Silverlight this year. MS Edge doesn't support Silverlight either if you use it on Win 10.

Wait, so what browser will actually run it nowadays?

Firefox is best browser.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #64 on: June 24, 2016, 09:34:03 pm »

Republican Primary Results (in order to see these, you're probably going to have to copy the link inside the img tag and enter into a new tab)

Trump (67)

AL
AR
AZ-01
AZ-02
CA-01
CA-02
CA-03
CA-04
CA-05
CA-06
CA-07
CA-08
CA-09
CA-10
CT
DE
FL-01
FL-02
FL-03
FL-05
GA-02
GA-03
HI
IL-02
IL-03
IN-01
IN-02
KY
LA
MD-01
MD-02
MI-02
MI-03
MA-01
MA-02
MS
MO-01
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ-01
NJ-02
NJ-03
NM
NY-01
NY-02
NY-03
NY-04
NY-05
NC-01
NC-03
OR
PA-01
PA-02
PA-03
PA-04
RI
SC
SD
TN-01
TN-02
VT
VA-02
WA-01
WA-02
WV

Cruz (21)

AK
CO-01
CO-02
ID
IA
KS
ME
MO-02
NC-02
ND
OK
TX-01
TX-02
TX-03
TX-04
TX-05
TX-06
TX-07
UT
WI-01
WY

Rubio (3)

GA-01
MN-01
VA-01

Kasich (3)

OH-01
OH-02
OH-03

Unsure (6)

FL-04 (Guess: Trump)
IL-01 (Guess: Trump)
IL-04 (Guess: Trump)
MI-01 (Guess: Trump)
MN-02 (Guess: Cruz)
WI-02 (Guess: Trump)
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #65 on: June 24, 2016, 10:12:04 pm »

Democratic Primary Results

Clinton (55)

AL
AZ-01
AZ-02
AR
CT
DE
FL-01
FL-02
FL-03
FL-04
FL-05
GA-01
GA-02
GA-03
IA
IL-02
KY
LA
MD-01
MD-02
MA-02
MI-02
MI-03
MS
MO-01
NV
NJ-01
NJ-02
NJ-03
NM
NY-01
NY-02
NY-03
NC-01
NC-02
NC-03
OH-01
OH-02
OH-03
PA-01
PA-02
PA-03
SC
SD
TN-01
TN-02
TX-01
TX-02
TX-03
TX-04
TX-05
TX-06
TX-07
VA-01
VA-02

Sanders (31)

AK
CO-01
CO-02
HI
ID
IL-01
IL-04
IN-01
KS
ME
MA-01
MI-01
MN-01
MN-02
MO-02
MT
NE
NH
NY-05
ND
OK
OR
RI
UT
VT
WA-01
WA-02
WV
WI-01
WI-02
WY

Unsure (4)

IL-03 (Guess: Sanders)
IN-02 (Guess: Sanders)
NY-04 (Guess: Sanders)
PA-04 (Guess: Sanders)

Not making any guesses about California since Torie's districts aren't labeled and vote hasn't been finalized.
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