Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

[136or142]

Until the NDP can get a Corbyn or a Sanders type to replace Mulair, they will have to hold their noses a keep him.

The problem for the NDP is that the Liberals have shifted to the left in their attempts to prevent the right-drifting NDP from winning. It worked, so the NDP will have to go to the left in their rhetoric. It won't necessarily win them an election, but it will get some much needed momentum behind them, enough to be able to play king maker in a minority government if we ever get proportional representation.

Hopefully for the NDP's sake, the Liberal's will do as they always do, and govern on the right (no indication of this yet), and so won't have to go too far to the left in the next campaign.

The NDP strategists seem to think that the Liberals can campaign on the left because the public believes they have (some) credibility on economics and finance, but that their own party lacks this credibility.  An NDP running on the left would probably result in them getting 10-15% of the vote, depending on how the Liberals have governed and how far to the left they go.

Of course, you're the polling expert, not me, so I could be wrong.

[Hatman 🍁]

If they run a left wing populist campaign, they would get more than 15% of the vote. If Corbyn and Sanders can do it...

Of course, if they just run a boring old school NDP campaign, then yes, expect the same results as the in the 1990s.

Such a populist approach is untested in modern Canadian politics, so don't trust my polling expertise on this one. I'm just observing what's going on in the rest of the Anglosphere.

[136or142]

If they run a left wing populist campaign, they would get more than 15% of the vote. If Corbyn and Sanders can do it...

Of course, if they just run a boring old school NDP campaign, then yes, expect the same results as the in the 1990s.

Such a populist approach is untested in modern Canadian politics, so don't trust my polling expertise on this one. I'm just observing what's going on in the rest of the Anglosphere.

Corbyn and Sanders haven't faced a general election yet.  Also, they are running in mostly two party nations (though I think Corbyn could bring the Liberal Democrats back from the (near) dead.

[Boston Bread]

I'm certainly going to hope the Liberals govern left, even if that means the NDP won't have a shot in 2019. They should always try to always stay measurably to the left of the liberals in any situation. Left wing populism, as Hatman said, will get better results than being Liberal lite.

[136or142]

I'm certainly going to hope the Liberals govern left, even if that means the NDP won't have a shot in 2019. They should always try to always stay measurably to the left of the liberals in any situation. Left wing populism, as Hatman said, will get better results than being Liberal lite.

Well I'd rather all the parties propose realistic solutions to what they regard as genuine societal problems from their ideological perspective.

[DC Al Fine]

If they run a left wing populist campaign, they would get more than 15% of the vote. If Corbyn and Sanders can do it...

Of course, if they just run a boring old school NDP campaign, then yes, expect the same results as the in the 1990s.

Such a populist approach is untested in modern Canadian politics, so don't trust my polling expertise on this one. I'm just observing what's going on in the rest of the Anglosphere.

Corbyn and Sanders haven't faced a general election yet.  Also, they are running in mostly two party nations (though I think Corbyn could bring the Liberal Democrats back from the (near) dead.

The difference is that the NDP are languishing in 3rd place, while Corbyn and Sanders are leading or trying to be the nominee of major parties. The expectations are different. Michael Foote's campaign in 1983, was a total disaster, but I'm sure the NDP would be happy take 27% and Official Opposition today.

[Hatman 🍁]

Being a left wing populist in the 1980s is a big difference than being a left wing populist in the 2010s.

Anyways, let's not forget that my point is that running a left wing populist campaign will not win the NDP the next election, it will just save them from irrelevancy. Running as "Liberal lite" will have to wait until the actual Liberals become unpopular again.

[RogueBeaver]

Tory leadership vote next spring. Bernier and Leitch are running, MacKay/Raitt/Clement likely. Many think Kenney won't run.

[DC Al Fine]

Tory leadership vote next spring. Bernier and Leitch are running, MacKay/Raitt/Clement likely. Many think Kenney won't run.

Well, my vote is up for grabs assuming Kenney stays out.

[RogueBeaver]

McGregor has a slightly different take on Tory leadership, though as always I trust Ivison a hella lot more.

[RogueBeaver]

One PKP is bad enough.

[RogueBeaver]

Abacus: Outside Alberta, Trudeaumania continues despite a worsening economy.

[DC Al Fine]

Abacus: Outside Alberta, Trudeaumania continues despite a worsening economy.

Related to the NDP's woes, I note that Trudeau has a near 60% approval rating among 2015 NDP voters. That will have to change if they want to do well. OTOH Trudeau has a 15% approval rating among 2015 Conservative voters, which suggests the Tories are close to their floor.

[DC Al Fine]

Anyways, let's not forget that my point is that running a left wing populist campaign will not win the NDP the next election, it will just save them from irrelevancy. Running as "Liberal lite" will have to wait until the actual Liberals become unpopular again.

One small advantage the NDP will have next time, is that they will be the only major party criticizing the government from the left. So long as the Tories were in power, they had to compete with the Liberals to voice certain kinds of criticism. Now it's more open, as it's not like the Tories are going to start complaining about "tax cuts for the rich".

[RogueBeaver]

Meet our new ambassadors to the US and UN.

[DC Al Fine]

Peter Stoffer has found a new job

[RogueBeaver]

Kudos to him.

Hmm.

NDP will drift into keeping Mulcair.

[RogueBeaver]

Trudeau will be busy in Davos, and steady as he goes on infrastructure.
5 day refugee pause in some cities due to a housing backlog.
O'Regan interview.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP should buy a house somewhere in Ottawa for use of future leaders. Call it Douglas House or something.

[2952-0-0]

Ottawa set to lift sanctions on Iran, Tories being hypocritical jerks yet again: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-could-lift-sanctions-against-iran-following-landmark-deal-by-us/article28233774/

Navdeep Bains hints that Iran is a potential market for Bombardier: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/minister-sees-iran-thaw-as-opportunity-for-canadian-aerospace-industry/article28253293/

Moodys downgrades Alberta credit rating: http://ipolitics.ca/2016/01/18/moodys-adjusts-outlook-for-alberta-to-negative-rating-still-triple-a/

Conservatives in denial that they lost the election, Exhibit #756: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/rona-ambrose-economy-1.3408606

[RogueBeaver]

A quack was appointed to the Senate advisory board.

[RogueBeaver]

Elementary school shooting in SK, 5 dead, 2 wounded.

[MaxQue]

Elementary school shooting in SK, 5 dead, 2 wounded.

High school, in fact.

[136or142]

A quack was appointed to the Senate advisory board.

Even leaving out the people who believe in the literal word of the Bible for which there is zero evidence for, according to studies virtually every single person believes at least a few weird things.

Just because this woman is more open about her views does not necessarily make her any stranger than anybody else and should not be an automatic disqualification.

For instance, depending on the poll question, at the height of the '9/11 truther movement' a large number of Canadians believed in several of the conspiracy theories:

"A September 2008 Angus Reid poll showed that 39 percent of respondents either disagree or are unsure that al-Qaeda carried out the attacks. About a third of those surveyed believed the U.S. government allowed the attacks to happen and 16 percent believe the U.S. government made the attacks happen."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polls_about_9/11_conspiracy_theories#Canada

I can't find the poll again, but a large number of Canadians also believed that the World Trade Center was brought down by a 'controlled demolition' and not as a result of the planes crashing into the buildings and the subsequent fire.

[DC Al Fine]

A quack was appointed to the Senate advisory board.

Even leaving out the people who believe in the literal word of the Bible for which there is zero evidence for, according to studies virtually every single person believes at least a few weird things.

Just because this woman is more open about her views does not necessarily make her any stranger than anybody else and should not be an automatic disqualification.

If right wingers can be criticized for harbouring creationists, it is perfectly reasonable to pick on lefties for harbouring hippy dippy types.