Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet research is out with their omnibus poll.  The numbers for BC are a bit different than posted above as these appear to be different surveys, but still broadly similar.  It appears the pipeline dispute is helping Notley who has narrowed the gap quite a bit, while hurting Horgan who has fallen behind.  Nationally, the Liberals are still ahead, but with Conservatives at 37.1% and NDP at only 11.9% it appears lack of splits on the left is helping the Liberals and hurting the Conservatives despite support being similar to what they got in 2006 and 2008 when they won.

National:

Libs 40.4%
Cons 37.1%
NDP 11.9%
Greens 5.9%
BQ 2.6%

Alberta:

UCP 48.6%
NDP 35.4%
Libs 6.2%
AB party 5.1%
Greens 2.4%

BC:

BC Libs 36.8%
NDP 34.8%
Greens 15.7%
BC Cons 11.4%

BC Conservatives at 11.4% seems rather high so if the next election is held under FTFP and these numbers hold (obviously with no election on the horizon, they will change), that could mean a bigger BC Liberal win.  If we go to PR, narrow edge for the NDP/Greens as it is 48.2% for BC Libs + BC Cons vs. 50.5% for BC NDP + BC Greens, but does show switching systems does not guarantee the NDP and Greens will get back in.  In fact it could actually pull the BC Liberals further to the right as I suspect for the BC Conservatives backing, they would demand certain concessions such as scrapping the carbon tax and perhaps a few other things.

[Lachi]

What is it with Forum Research and their obviously pro conservative polling?

[mileslunn]

What is it with Forum Research and their obviously pro conservative polling?

Forum has been showing the Tories ahead in contrast with others so probably a methological problem.  If you look at the breakdown, there is no way in hell the Tories are in the lead in Quebec.  Yes they are now in solid second place and north of 20%, but not in front.  Atlantic Canada numbers are a bit tighter than others but could be chalked up to margin of error.  Ontario numbers at least seem plausible, Prairies Tories a bit on the high side.  The Tories are at 73% in Alberta and while they wouldn't make much difference in seats, I suspect they are not that high as even Alberta has a strong progressive minority, its not monolithically right wing.  British Columbia at least seems believable as both Angus-Reid and Mainstreet suggest Tories due to pipeline politics have pulled ahead there.  My guess is either things are tied or Liberals are slightly ahead but if an election were called today it would probably be a Liberal minority IMHO.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

NDP under Jagmeet Singh is looking like an unmitigated disaster. Not going for a seat in the House was a ridiculous decision. He comes off as an over-confident high-school debater on TV and could have seriously benefited from having some practice and actual attention in the HoC. His caucus doesn’t respect him because its members don’t know him, and they’re probably all losing faith by the day with poll numbers like these.

Sure, Mulcair made some tactical errors, but surely there must be some party members regretting that they gave him the boot. After Justin’s sanctimonious and empty tenure as PM, Mulcair might actually be exactly the kind of leader people would want. Kind of a shame.

[EPG]

They didn't want him when he was actually opposition leader, correct?

[HagridOfTheDeep]

They didn't want him when he was actually opposition leader, correct?

I don’t recall hearing this. Maybe I’m wrong though. But it looks like the “not good enough” showing they had in 2015 will be far better than whatever abysmal result they manage next time, so...

[DC Al Fine]

What is it with Forum Research and their obviously pro conservative polling?

Forum has been showing the Tories ahead in contrast with others so probably a methological problem.  If you look at the breakdown, there is no way in hell the Tories are in the lead in Quebec.  Yes they are now in solid second place and north of 20%, but not in front.  Atlantic Canada numbers are a bit tighter than others but could be chalked up to margin of error.  Ontario numbers at least seem plausible, Prairies Tories a bit on the high side.  The Tories are at 73% in Alberta and while they wouldn't make much difference in seats, I suspect they are not that high as even Alberta has a strong progressive minority, its not monolithically right wing.  British Columbia at least seems believable as both Angus-Reid and Mainstreet suggest Tories due to pipeline politics have pulled ahead there.  My guess is either things are tied or Liberals are slightly ahead but if an election were called today it would probably be a Liberal minority IMHO.

What's funny is that everyone used to complain about Forum's pro-Liberal polling pre-2015

[RogueBeaver]

Weird how the polling world has completely Balkanized and how many of them openly hate on each other online since Justin won.

[mileslunn]

NDP under Jagmeet Singh is looking like an unmitigated disaster. Not going for a seat in the House was a ridiculous decision. He comes off as an over-confident high-school debater on TV and could have seriously benefited from having some practice and actual attention in the HoC. His caucus doesn’t respect him because its members don’t know him, and they’re probably all losing faith by the day with poll numbers like these.

Sure, Mulcair made some tactical errors, but surely there must be some party members regretting that they gave him the boot. After Justin’s sanctimonious and empty tenure as PM, Mulcair might actually be exactly the kind of leader people would want. Kind of a shame.

That is probably true although I am not sure changing leaders would do much.  The problem the NDP faces as the Liberals have abandoned the centre and moved to the left into traditional NDP territory so they have little space left.  If they tried to move into the centre where the Liberals are that wouldn't work as most Blue Liberals and Red Tories can swing between the Tories and Liberals but will never vote NDP.  So they are between a rock and a hard place.  The best strategy for the NDP is just wait until Trudeau screws up badly as I suspect any votes who loses to the Tories will be in 2019, but after that so when people tire of him the NDP much like the Ontario NDP who is almost identical to the Ontario Liberals will stand most to benefit.

[DC Al Fine]

Mainstreet has their first part of their mega poll and BC is now out on scribd.com.  Quite interesting.  The horse race in BC only for federal parties is as follows:

Cons 39%
Libs 25%
NDP 20%
Greens 13%

While provincially looks like some movement over the pipeline as other polls seem to be hinting.  That being said with no other direct polls, it would be nice to get confirmation to see if this is the result of real movement or just noise.  Either way if the numbers are true, it makes sense on where the parties stand on PR.  BC Liberal majority under FTFP, while nail biter between centre-right (BC Liberals + BC Conservatives) and centre-left (NDP + Greens) under PR.

BC Libs 37%
NDP 31%
Greens 17%
BC Cons 13%

So centre-right is 50% and centre-left is 48%, which is actually pretty close to what it was in 2013, but well off last election.  Off course always best to view this one with a bit of skepticism.  Tomorrow Alberta and national are out although a Jan Brown poll just on the issues seems to hint the pipeline is not doing the NDP any favours while UCP leading on who is best to handle different issues by a sizeable margin but no horse race numbers.  Insights West and Angus-Reid also both show most in BC are now for the pipeline and support has risen.

Have the BC Conservatives actually reestablished themselves or are their double digit polls just people who aren't aware of the difference between federal and provincial politics?

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet has their first part of their mega poll and BC is now out on scribd.com.  Quite interesting.  The horse race in BC only for federal parties is as follows:

Cons 39%
Libs 25%
NDP 20%
Greens 13%

While provincially looks like some movement over the pipeline as other polls seem to be hinting.  That being said with no other direct polls, it would be nice to get confirmation to see if this is the result of real movement or just noise.  Either way if the numbers are true, it makes sense on where the parties stand on PR.  BC Liberal majority under FTFP, while nail biter between centre-right (BC Liberals + BC Conservatives) and centre-left (NDP + Greens) under PR.

BC Libs 37%
NDP 31%
Greens 17%
BC Cons 13%

So centre-right is 50% and centre-left is 48%, which is actually pretty close to what it was in 2013, but well off last election.  Off course always best to view this one with a bit of skepticism.  Tomorrow Alberta and national are out although a Jan Brown poll just on the issues seems to hint the pipeline is not doing the NDP any favours while UCP leading on who is best to handle different issues by a sizeable margin but no horse race numbers.  Insights West and Angus-Reid also both show most in BC are now for the pipeline and support has risen.

Have the BC Conservatives actually reestablished themselves or are their double digit polls just people who aren't aware of the difference between federal and provincial politics?

Largely the latter although I think this fall's referendum on whether to switch to PR or not will be key for them.  If PR passes, I suspect they will get around those numbers, but if voters opt to stick with FTFP, I suspect those will fall back to low single digits.

[DC Al Fine]

The seven ex-Bloc MPs are considering forming their own party.

[Poirot]

The seven ex-Bloc MPs are considering forming their own party.

They were convinced to wait the Bloc's general council (held last weekend) before definitively cutting ties with the Bloc. MP and party President Mario Beaulieu was no longer supporting Ouellet and with maybe 40 riding presidents were behind a proposal to have a confidence vote on leadership in mid-May and it would take 75% support for her to stay. The meeting was about 200 people and the proposal was narrowly defeated. So the Ouellet plan of a confidence vote and question on primary goal of the Bloc on June 1-2 was adopted. She says a simple majority is enough for her to stay.

In her speech she blamed the ex-MPs for the crisis and fake news, criticized Duceppe. Last month she threatened media with lawsuit. Maybe she can win the confidence vote since a lot of people are leaving already. Even if she loses the vote, there is too much damaged for someone to become leader or be involved with the party.

Mario Beaulieu is thinking about his future, the VP has resigned, the director od the party and the finance director are quitting.     

[DC Al Fine]

Yikes what a crapshow. Any ideas for a name for the new parti?

[mileslunn]

More sad news on parliament hill, Conservative MP Gord Brown (Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands & Rideau Lakes) died of a heartattack this morning.  He was 57.

[RogueBeaver]

NDP MP Christine Moore accused of sexual harassment by a disabled veteran.

[RogueBeaver]

Moore also sexted Glen Kirkland (the vet in question) after sleeping with him.

[Njall]

Weir is now listed as a Cooperative Commonwealth Federation member in the House of Commons.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Weir is now listed as a Cooperative Commonwealth Federation member in the House of Commons.

Haha

[RogueBeaver]

Former Bloc leader Michel Gauthier has joined the Tories.

[DC Al Fine]

Weir is now listed as a Cooperative Commonwealth Federation member in the House of Commons.

Haha

That's amazing.

Former Bloc leader Michel Gauthier has joined the Tories.

Will that move any votes or is he basically unknown after ten years out of parliament?

[RogueBeaver]

No effect. Scheer's looking for strong local candidates, like the mayor of Trois-Rivières mentioned in that article.

[TheSaint250]

Has the House of Commons ever been this diversified in terms of declared parties?

(Seriously asking. I have no frame of reference.)

[RogueBeaver]

Has the House of Commons ever been this diversified in terms of declared parties?

(Seriously asking. I have no frame of reference.)

Yes. In the last Parliament, Bloc also splintered into a regionalist group called Strength in Democracy, which won no seats in 2015 and is now defunct. I imagine the same will happen again. 5 parties have been represented more often than not since multiparty politics sprouted after WW1.

[Poirot]

The federal constituency of Manicouagan will likely change name to become Côte-Nord.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1100463/la-circonscription-federale-manicouagan-change-de-nom