Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II
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  Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II
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Poll
Question: Does uniting the right in Alberta mean the NDP is toast next election?
#1
Absolutely they are done like dinner
 
#2
NDP still might win, but will be a steep hill to climb
 
#3
NDP will likely win, UCP too extreme
 
#4
NDP will definitely win
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 30

Author Topic: Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II  (Read 188643 times)
Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #1500 on: July 23, 2018, 04:49:38 PM »

Why isn't some back bench party hack giving up his seat to the seat less party leader? Having no seat in parliament is pretty embarrassing.

Because it's risky and the NDP needs all the talent they have in the house and it's not really that embarassing. Jack Layton didn't have a seat when he became leader.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1501 on: July 27, 2018, 12:54:40 AM »

Why isn't some back bench party hack giving up his seat to the seat less party leader? Having no seat in parliament is pretty embarrassing.

Because it's risky and the NDP needs all the talent they have in the house and it's not really that embarassing. Jack Layton didn't have a seat when he became leader.

Depends what seat as there are some pretty safe ones.  I think if David Christophson retired early, Singh could run there as I cannot see Hamilton Centre going anything but NDP.  Also with an election only a little over a year away, Jenny Kwan could step aside in Vancouver East (probably the safest NDP seat in the country) and then run again in 2019, that is what Scott Brison did when he stepped aside for Joe Clark, but made a comeback in 2000 and is still an MP to this day albeit in a different party.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1502 on: July 27, 2018, 08:13:21 AM »

Why isn't some back bench party hack giving up his seat to the seat less party leader? Having no seat in parliament is pretty embarrassing.

Because it's risky and the NDP needs all the talent they have in the house and it's not really that embarassing. Jack Layton didn't have a seat when he became leader.

I'm not sure how.many people care outside of the media and political junkies. Also, for better or worse, the NDP is going to get less crap for this than a Tory or Liberal would. It's a very high risk, low reward proposition for the NDP.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #1503 on: July 27, 2018, 09:21:07 AM »

So, looks like Doug Ford is becoming a dictator?
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #1504 on: July 27, 2018, 10:10:46 AM »

So, looks like Doug Ford is becoming a dictator?

This kind of thing is why we really need to loosen provincial power over municipalities. Provinces shouldn't be so powerful that they can literally cancel elections and nuke entire city councils.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #1505 on: July 27, 2018, 10:11:51 AM »

So, looks like Doug Ford is becoming a dictator?
you mean Dougtator. Tongue
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1506 on: July 27, 2018, 10:24:48 AM »

So, looks like Doug Ford is becoming a dictator?

It will be interesting what he does now with John Tory's response to put the issue to a referendum.  Tough to see say no to taking it to the people.  It will be interesting what his response is to this, but I think John Tory might have cornered him well on this one.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #1507 on: July 27, 2018, 11:24:58 AM »

John Tory isn't going to do anything. He got what he wanted; nominations for mayor still close today, but for every other race, they'll be extended. So any would-be challenger for mayor who doesn't want to run against a colleague in any of these new mega-wards will not be able to do so.

Hopefully someone challenges this in the court. 25 seats is not effective representation (this has already been established in court, whether you agree with it or not).
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1508 on: July 27, 2018, 01:19:31 PM »

But wouldn't Ford look bad if he ignored the referendum results? I think in many ways this could make things interesting. Also will be interesting to see what his 11 MPP's from Toronto say since if they get enough pushback from constituents it could get interesting. I do think though using federal/provincial boundaries makes sense but if 25 is too small then 50 so two per riding which is essentially what it was before as it used to be 22 ridings and 44 wards and boundaries by and large corresponded with ridings ones.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #1509 on: July 27, 2018, 01:27:40 PM »

Wouldn't 25 seats literally mean a city council member has a larger average constituency than an MPP does? That sounds absurd.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #1510 on: July 27, 2018, 05:09:54 PM »

Wouldn't 25 seats literally mean a city council member has a larger average constituency than an MPP does? That sounds absurd.

Hmm, that is technically true. We have some ridings covering just 20k people up north, brining the average down.

Bizarrely this wouldn't be as bad as some cities in western Canada that have more provincial ridings than wards.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1511 on: July 27, 2018, 05:20:00 PM »

Wouldn't 25 seats literally mean a city council member has a larger average constituency than an MPP does? That sounds absurd.

Hmm, that is technically true. We have some ridings covering just 20k people up north, brining the average down.

Bizarrely this wouldn't be as bad as some cities in western Canada that have more provincial ridings than wards.

This is definitely true of Vancouver and Calgary. Mind you in Vancouver it has always been 10 councillors for as long as I've been around so it probably was at one time less. They also up until the 1991 election used to have double member provincial ridings until the courts stopped this. This was the Socreds gerrymandering by putting a strong Socred riding with a narrow NDP to get two Socreds elected.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1512 on: July 30, 2018, 07:47:44 AM »

Mainstreet-AB: 52/33. Tories even lead in Edmonton.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1513 on: July 30, 2018, 12:13:59 PM »


It looks like they are do their quarterly poll for all provinces.  Also did BC today, while New Brunswick and Ontario earlier.  Federally Liberals have a slight lead, but are ahead in all areas except the Prairies.  New Brunswick shows a tie although if that pans out probably means a PC majority as PC vote is more efficient since NB Liberals tend to run up the margins in the Francophone areas while PCs win by smaller margins in the Anglophone areas.  Ontario shows the PCs well ahead, but just had an election so largely irrelevant as it is almost 4 years until they go to the polls.  BC shows NDP and BC Liberals tied but both barely at a third.  If you look at the left vs. right vote, also pretty close to tied too (NDP + Greens on left, while BC Liberals + BC Conservatives on right).
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136or142
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« Reply #1514 on: July 31, 2018, 11:41:52 AM »


It looks like they are do their quarterly poll for all provinces.  Also did BC today, while New Brunswick and Ontario earlier.  Federally Liberals have a slight lead, but are ahead in all areas except the Prairies.  New Brunswick shows a tie although if that pans out probably means a PC majority as PC vote is more efficient since NB Liberals tend to run up the margins in the Francophone areas while PCs win by smaller margins in the Anglophone areas.  Ontario shows the PCs well ahead, but just had an election so largely irrelevant as it is almost 4 years until they go to the polls.  BC shows NDP and BC Liberals tied but both barely at a third.  If you look at the left vs. right vote, also pretty close to tied too (NDP + Greens on left, while BC Liberals + BC Conservatives on right).

The New Brunswick poll was a bit odd in that I believe it showed pretty even support for both the P.Cs and the Liberals throughout the entire province. 
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1515 on: July 31, 2018, 11:57:12 AM »


It looks like they are do their quarterly poll for all provinces.  Also did BC today, while New Brunswick and Ontario earlier.  Federally Liberals have a slight lead, but are ahead in all areas except the Prairies.  New Brunswick shows a tie although if that pans out probably means a PC majority as PC vote is more efficient since NB Liberals tend to run up the margins in the Francophone areas while PCs win by smaller margins in the Anglophone areas.  Ontario shows the PCs well ahead, but just had an election so largely irrelevant as it is almost 4 years until they go to the polls.  BC shows NDP and BC Liberals tied but both barely at a third.  If you look at the left vs. right vote, also pretty close to tied too (NDP + Greens on left, while BC Liberals + BC Conservatives on right).

The New Brunswick poll was a bit odd in that I believe it showed pretty even support for both the P.Cs and the Liberals throughout the entire province. 

It did Fredericton, Moncton, and everywhere else when the real divide is along linguistic lines.  Moncton is a bilingual city so probably close to provincewide averages while Fredericton is the capital so more civil servants plus the one Green MLA comes from there so skew things a bit.  I suspect within the rest of NB, you would see a big Liberal lead amongst Francophones while a somewhat more modest PC lead amongst Anglophones.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1516 on: August 01, 2018, 10:33:09 AM »

The fringe Atlantica Party in Nova Scotia is in trouble for violating election spending laws Tongue
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #1517 on: August 02, 2018, 02:20:22 PM »

The fringe Atlantica Party in Nova Scotia is in trouble for violating election spending laws Tongue

How did they get enough money to violate election spending laws?
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1518 on: August 02, 2018, 02:29:51 PM »

The fringe Atlantica Party in Nova Scotia is in trouble for violating election spending laws Tongue

How did they get enough money to violate election spending laws?

I phrased that poorly. Their leader donated way more than limits allow under the guise of "loans"
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1519 on: August 05, 2018, 05:07:16 PM »

Breaking: Saudis have PNG'd our ambassador, recalled theirs and frozen new trade & investment over our Badawi complaints.
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2952-0-0
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« Reply #1520 on: August 05, 2018, 09:39:28 PM »

Good thing the Harper government rushed through the sale of a controlling stake of CWB to the Saudi state, even when a consortium of Canadian farmers were raising money to propose a higher offer.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #1521 on: August 08, 2018, 03:17:26 PM »

So Jagmeet Singh says he's committed to moving to Burnaby.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1522 on: August 09, 2018, 07:10:55 AM »

Wouldn't 25 seats literally mean a city council member has a larger average constituency than an MPP does? That sounds absurd.

Hmm, that is technically true. We have some ridings covering just 20k people up north, brining the average down.

Bizarrely this wouldn't be as bad as some cities in western Canada that have more provincial ridings than wards.

Halifax is like that too. 16 councilors, 21 MLA's.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #1523 on: August 09, 2018, 11:52:02 AM »

So Jagmeet Singh says he's committed to moving to Burnaby.

Too little too late, I think. The NDP has greatly shrunk in stature during his tenure and I’m honestly not sure how he recovers. Devastating if he loses this byelection. I don’t think he’d make it to the 2019 election. And if he does, with or without his own seat, the NDP will not do well. His youthfulness and seemingly brash confidence makes him look small (IMO). Progressives will still rally around Trudeau.

But there’s my baseless speculation for the day. It’s a shame. Mulcair, packaged correctly, seems like the perfect counterweight to JT.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #1524 on: August 09, 2018, 09:42:44 PM »

The NDP is still polling 15-20%, so it's just a reversion to the mean really. We're not in Audrey McLaughlin territory, and not even Alexa McDonough territory either.
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