Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Any clue unto what this party might be named? I don't know why I'm so interested in that rather small detail, but I am.

No idea, but I bet it will be something vague and boring.

Strong words coming from an NDP supporter 

Hey, when did I ever say I liked the name? At least it beats "New Party".

Or "the Waffle."

[MAINEiac4434]

Any clue unto what this party might be named? I don't know why I'm so interested in that rather small detail, but I am.

No idea, but I bet it will be something vague and boring.

Strong words coming from an NDP supporter 

Hey, when did I ever say I liked the name? At least it beats "New Party".

Lol. Maybe we should just go with 'The Party'. It's got a nice Soviet ring to it

In all sincerity, Bernier would probably try to come up with something idiosyncratic, knowing his enormous ego. I'm thinking something like 'En Marche' by Macron.

The MAXimum Bparty

[MAINEiac4434]

Any clue unto what this party might be named? I don't know why I'm so interested in that rather small detail, but I am.

No idea, but I bet it will be something vague and boring.

Strong words coming from an NDP supporter 

Hey, when did I ever say I liked the name? At least it beats "New Party".

Or "the Waffle."

The Waffle is a good name actually

[mileslunn]

Any clue unto what this party might be named? I don't know why I'm so interested in that rather small detail, but I am.

No idea, but I bet it will be something vague and boring.

Strong words coming from an NDP supporter 

Hey, when did I ever say I liked the name? At least it beats "New Party".

Or "the Waffle."

The Waffle is a good name actually

The Waffle is actually a name of a left wing movement within the NDP back in the 70s so not sure that would work so well.  They were a group within the NDP who wanted to move it a lot further to the left.

[DC Al Fine]

to go with libertarian and individual freedom theme and having a name that is similar as much as possible in English and French, I propose the name Liberty / Liberté.

I like that choice. It's inoffensive but it still gets the ideological point across.

[DC Al Fine]

Newspaper coverage of Parti Bernier seems near-universally negative.

I would find his choice puzzling if he already hadn't proven to be so undisciplined. Dude would probably be Tory leader two years from now if he had just shut up and been a team player, or at least gone to the private sector for a few years. Hell, even going Indy probably would have garnered less ridicule.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Any clue unto what this party might be named? I don't know why I'm so interested in that rather small detail, but I am.

No idea, but I bet it will be something vague and boring.

Strong words coming from an NDP supporter 

Hey, when did I ever say I liked the name? At least it beats "New Party".

Or "the Waffle."

The Waffle is a good name actually

The Waffle is actually a name of a left wing movement within the NDP back in the 70s so not sure that would work so well.  They were a group within the NDP who wanted to move it a lot further to the left.

Yeah, James Laxer led them IIRC.

[mileslunn]

Abacus did a first test here and does show a Bernier led party doing some damage but also hurts the other parties albeit somewhat less.  If Bernier led party goes anywhere, wonder if you will start seeing more Tories supporting PR as Abacus shows 34% for the Tories without a Bernier led party, but with one it is 28% Tories, 13% Bernier led party for a total of 41% so if his becomes a reality it does make it somewhat more difficult for the Tories to win nationally, but not insurmountable (Considering how much Tories hate Justin Trudeau, I could see much like in BC 2013, much of that group swinging back at the last moment similar to the BC Conservatives), but could also be damaging too especially in a lot of close races.  Another possibility is taking a page from Germany and Australia perhaps the Tories cut a deal where Bernier led party only runs candidates in Quebec and they only in the rest of Canada thus become sister parties much like the CDU/CSU (CSU runs only in Bavaria, CDU elsewhere) or Liberal/National Party (Liberals in urban areas, National party in rural areas) although that has its risk.

A quicker easier solution if this goes anywhere, is the Tories just change their position on electoral reform and agree to support ranked ballots which the Liberals favour and that would solve the issue.

[DC Al Fine]

Abacus did a first test here and does show a Bernier led party doing some damage but also hurts the other parties albeit somewhat less.  If Bernier led party goes anywhere, wonder if you will start seeing more Tories supporting PR as Abacus shows 34% for the Tories without a Bernier led party, but with one it is 28% Tories, 13% Bernier led party for a total of 41% so if his becomes a reality it does make it somewhat more difficult for the Tories to win nationally, but not insurmountable (Considering how much Tories hate Justin Trudeau, I could see much like in BC 2013, much of that group swinging back at the last moment similar to the BC Conservatives), but could also be damaging too especially in a lot of close races.  Another possibility is taking a page from Germany and Australia perhaps the Tories cut a deal where Bernier led party only runs candidates in Quebec and they only in the rest of Canada thus become sister parties much like the CDU/CSU (CSU runs only in Bavaria, CDU elsewhere) or Liberal/National Party (Liberals in urban areas, National party in rural areas) although that has its risk.

A quicker easier solution if this goes anywhere, is the Tories just change their position on electoral reform and agree to support ranked ballots which the Liberals favour and that would solve the issue.

Let's wait and see if Bernier's movement isn't strangled in its cradle before we start talking about the Tories making massive changes.

Also link for anyone who's interested.

[DC Al Fine]

Ok, so just for the hell of it, I used the cube root rule by region to estimate the results of the next election with and without Parti Bernier. Here's what I got with Bernier (change from without Bernier in parentheses):

Liberal: 187 (+7)
Conservative: 105 (-21)
NDP: 33 (+6)
Bernier: 8 (+8)
Bloc: 2 (nc)
Green: 2 (nc)

Of course all of that is contingent on Bernier actually putting together a party organization and not imploding in the next fifteen months, which I highly doubt.

[Mike88]

I wasn't following this. So, Bernier lost the leadership in 2017, he then became part of Scheer's team, started to criticize Scheer's leadership for being weak and left the party to form his own party. In reaction to this, many believe he's only feeding his ego, never accepted the results in 2017 and is trying to divide the Conservatives.

This may be just coincidence, but if you go to the Portuguese politics and elections thread, the exact same thing happened, here, in the biggest party on the center-right, with the split between Santana Lopes and the PSD. The exact same thing, episode by episode. Quite curious.

What kind of party is Bernier is thinking of? Center-right but hard on immigration and social issues?

[DC Al Fine]

I wasn't following this. So, Bernier lost the leadership in 2017, he then became part of Scheer's team, started to criticize Scheer's leadership for being weak and left the party to form his own party. In reaction to this, many believe he's only feeding his ego, never accepted the results in 2017 and is trying to divide the Conservatives.

This may be just coincidence, but if you go to the Portuguese politics and elections thread, the exact same thing happened, here, in the biggest party on the center-right, with the split between Santana Lopes and the PSD. The exact same thing, episode by episode. Quite curious.

Haha neat.

What kind of party is Bernier is thinking of? Center-right but hard on immigration and social issues?

He's a libertarian who mostly wants to attack supply management, but he's gotten a lot of notice for his anti-multiculturalism comments. What way the party goes remains to be seen.

[RogueBeaver]

NDP MP Irene Mathysen (London-Fanshawe) won't run next year.

[RogueBeaver]

Linda Duncan won't run again.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/IvisonJ/status/1035173158146457600

https://twitter.com/VassyKapelos/status/1035174809309732864

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/LiveSquawk/status/1035612642122117120

[MAINEiac4434]

Any clue unto what this party might be named? I don't know why I'm so interested in that rather small detail, but I am.

No idea, but I bet it will be something vague and boring.

Strong words coming from an NDP supporter 

Hey, when did I ever say I liked the name? At least it beats "New Party".

Or "the Waffle."

The Waffle is a good name actually

The Waffle is actually a name of a left wing movement within the NDP back in the 70s so not sure that would work so well.  They were a group within the NDP who wanted to move it a lot further to the left.

Yes, I know.

[RogueBeaver]

NDP is deeply in the red and Grits are also in deficit.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Bernier’s party up to 17% in new Nanos poll. Almost at Reform ‘93 numbers.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Tbf that poll says 17% "would consider" voting for a Bernier's party. That said, if that does happen then next election will be a roasting for every non-Grit party.

[RogueBeaver]

Bernier claims support from 3 current MPs and several former ones. Believe if seen.

[Poirot]

Bernier claims support from 3 current MPs and several former ones. Believe if seen.

I wanted to play guess the 3 MPs. I was thinking of Alupa Clarke from Quebec City who supported Bernier in the leadership race. I looked at the wiki Conservative leadership race page and the list of MPs endorsing Bernier is:

Dan Albas (Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola)
Alupa Clarke (Beauport—Limoilou)
Tony Clement (Parry Sound—Muskoka)
Jacques Gourde (Lévis—Lotbinière)
Tom Kmiec (Calgary Shepard)
Alex Nuttall (Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte)
Len Webber (Calgary Confederation)

I think Albas, Clement, Gourde and Nuttall have said they were not following him. That leaves Kmiec and Webber. Maybe there is someone wild like an ex Bloc or a NDP MP who would want to join a new party.

There is also a list of former MPs endorsing Bernier on the wiki leadership page (and maps of first round and last round of vote) to maybe give an idea on who could be wanting to make a comeback. 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_of_Canada_leadership_election,_2017

[136or142]

Does anybody know of any former Canadian journalist who now works in international relations? Genuinely asking for a (twitter) friend

[DC Al Fine]

Bernier claims support from 3 current MPs and several former ones. Believe if seen.

Agreed. Unless I see them cross the floor or at least openly complain about Scheer, it's all talk.

[136or142]

On Power and Politics today one commentator said that "Three Quebec NDP M.Ps have decided they are going to retire and four others are considering it."

I presume this includes the two who have already announced, Laverdiere and Saganash.