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  Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II
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Poll
Question: Does uniting the right in Alberta mean the NDP is toast next election?
#1Absolutely they are done like dinner  
#2NDP still might win, but will be a steep hill to climb  
#3NDP will likely win, UCP too extreme  
#4NDP will definitely win  
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 30

Author Topic: Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II  (Read 149819 times)
DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1725 on: October 28, 2018, 04:41:35 pm »

So no second ballot, because Clarke dropped out? Makes sense, 49% is a guaranteed win.

Correct

Do you think Houston will take the party back to the right?

Fiscally yes, socially he's as red as Baillie was.
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Old School Republican
Computer89
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« Reply #1726 on: October 28, 2018, 09:27:26 pm »

Hope this passes: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/doug-ford-teachers-math-test-ontario-1.4878114
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #1727 on: October 29, 2018, 03:53:07 am »

Heaven forbid students practice experimenting, problem-solving, and thinking critically to build computational math skills/number sense. Roll Eyes
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1728 on: November 02, 2018, 05:28:36 pm »

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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1729 on: November 06, 2018, 02:34:33 pm »

Bernard Landry has died at 81.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1730 on: November 08, 2018, 02:24:57 pm »

The Clement scandal gets worse.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1731 on: November 08, 2018, 09:29:25 pm »

The Clement scandal gets worse.

Oh boy
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1732 on: November 13, 2018, 03:14:46 pm »

Apparently Maxime Bernier's People's party has 33,000 members and is able to draw large crowds.  I am skeptical the party will go very far.  People may be split on whether we should have less or more government, but I don't think libertarianism is very popular.  Most seem to see it as only favouring the very rich thus making it a very tough sell.  As such I don't see his PPC going very far, but even if it only got 5-10% of the popular vote, that could cost the Tories a whole wack of seats thus guaranteeing an even bigger Liberal majority.  Also PPC gaining will probably force the Tories to move rightwards thus making it tougher for them to win over the Liberal-Tory swing votes they need to win.  On the other hand if Bernier attracts enough kookie candidates, they might end up being like the BC Conservatives or if they get little media attention could end up being like the Trilium Party in Ontario.  Both were expected to cause headaches for the Ontario PCs and BC Liberals yet neither materialized.

Mainstreet is now doing their quarterly provincial polls.  So far mixed results.

BC: Referendum like with insights West looks to be a nail biter so depends heavily on turnout.  Older voters generally favour FTFP and are more likely to vote, but those who want to change to PR are more passionate about it thus might be more inclined to vote.  BC Liberals have a very narrow lead, but considering BC Conservative support it is likely under FTFP things are looking good for the BC Liberals.  Only thing that might help the NDP is John Horgan is more popular than Andrew Wilkinson so numbers could easily move.  If PR goes through then slight advantage NDP and NDP + Greens are just over 50%, but no matter who wins neither side has a lock.  Besides I expect the government to last until 2021 so lots can change.

Alberta:  As mentioned elsewhere, big UCP lead so they are heavy favourites and unless they screw up badly, will likely win next year.

Ontario: Unlike other polls, PCs still have a strong lead although with no election until 2022, polls are meaningless at this point.

New Brunswick - MQO: It appears recent drama has helped the Greens dramatically, helped the PCs slightly, while hurt the Liberals and had no impact on People's Alliance.

PEI: Both polls show a tight three way race so anyone's game.

Nova Scotia - MQO: Liberals have slight lead, but with an election not until 2021 still plenty of time for things to change.

Newfoundland & Labrador: Liberals in lead so in good shape to win re-election next year, but PCs not totally out of it, but have an uphill battle.  Will likely form a stronger opposition, but need to up their game to win outright. 

Still waiting to see what is in store in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Quebec.  My guess is Saskatchewan Party and Manitoba PCs are in the lead, but not as big as what they got in 2016, but we shall see.  Quebec just had their election so will be interesting to see if Legault gets any bounce here.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1733 on: November 13, 2018, 06:01:23 pm »

The Tories just picked a new leader in NS, so that likely explains the Liberals drop.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1734 on: November 13, 2018, 07:07:26 pm »

Interestingly enough Campaign research in Ontario has 34% PC, 32% Liberal, and 25% NDP so more in line with Innovative than Mainstreet research.  Only caveat I have with the poll is over half sampled are in the 416 although I suspect they weight it.  In 416 it is 37% Liberal to 30% PC which seems plausible, but in 905 belt it is 38% PC to 32% Liberal while rest of Ontario 40% PC, 27% NDP, and 21% Liberal so doesn't quite seem to add up since 416 is under 25% of the population so using 25% in 416, 25% in 905 and 50% elsewhere I get 37% PC and 28% Liberal, but whichever one you want to believe it is clear Ford is not enjoying a honeymoon and more dislike him than like while the Liberals with Wynne gone are rebounding, it is just a question of how much while NDP doesn't seem to benefitting.  On the minimum wage hike, both show similar numbers with a slim majority opposing his decision to cancel the hike to $15/hour, but still over 40% supporting it.  Either way with no election until 2022, I suspect you will get a fair bit of variation.  Either way all post election polls show the PCs ahead but generally below what they got on e-day, Liberals rebounding, and NDP falling a bit.  With the government less than six months old, not a very good start, but Ford was always a very polarizing figure so hard to say if numbers will shift or perhaps he is simply the type you either love (a minority around 35%) or hate (around 60%).
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1735 on: November 25, 2018, 06:25:01 pm »
« Edited: November 25, 2018, 08:47:45 pm by RogueBeaver »





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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1736 on: November 25, 2018, 08:09:41 pm »

Ah yikes, that's huge
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🅰 🦀 @k 🎂
CrabCake
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« Reply #1737 on: November 26, 2018, 07:16:36 pm »

That's one of my big fears about the electric car transition: overall you have far less moving parts in an electric car, so any region dependent on automative industry Jobs is going to be severely hurt by the switchover.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1738 on: December 02, 2018, 08:04:11 pm »

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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #1739 on: December 06, 2018, 04:29:03 am »

Seems like the Liberals have backed down on the summer grant program attestation nonsense. 

Fairly obvious compromise: funding can no longer go to programs that are 'anti charter' i.e to a program funding anti abortion activities, but the organizations can continue these programs by themselves.  There will be no attestation either, but Service Canada civil servants will check out the grant seeking programs to ensure they don't violate the new rules.

Seems most people are happy with this. 

https://globalnews.ca/news/4732603/canada-summer-jobs-attestation-change/
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1740 on: December 09, 2018, 02:42:21 pm »

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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1741 on: December 10, 2018, 08:58:58 am »

Svend Robinson planning a comeback in his old riding.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1742 on: December 20, 2018, 07:58:15 pm »

FPTP wins with 61% in BC.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #1743 on: December 21, 2018, 05:34:57 am »

FPTP wins with 61% in BC.

REEEEEEEEEEEEEE!
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #1744 on: December 21, 2018, 02:12:51 pm »

FPTP wins with 61% in BC.

The absolute worst thing is my BC Liberal acquaintances pretending to be progressive. They celebrate the defeat of proportional representation but two years ago lamented the way Trudeau abandoned it.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1745 on: December 21, 2018, 02:27:00 pm »

FPTP wins with 61% in BC.

The absolute worst thing is my BC Liberal acquaintances pretending to be progressive. They celebrate the defeat of proportional representation but two years ago lamented the way Trudeau abandoned it.

That was a weird case. I was annoyed at Trudeau abandoning democratic reform but at the same time, I would take FPTP over Trudeau's proposed IRV system and I'm a huge fan of proportional representation.

IRV is irritating since how much a party is disliked can have a substanstial effect on its result, regardless of it's vote share. FPTP has this, but the effect is much more muted.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #1746 on: December 21, 2018, 04:46:12 pm »

FPTP wins with 61% in BC.

The absolute worst thing is my BC Liberal acquaintances pretending to be progressive. They celebrate the defeat of proportional representation but two years ago lamented the way Trudeau abandoned it.

BC Liberals aren't progressive, according to any definition.
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Poirot
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« Reply #1747 on: December 25, 2018, 03:58:34 pm »

In New Brunswick, Deputy premier Robert Gauvin is pondering his ffuture with the PC party.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/gauvin-questions-future-pcs-1.4956691
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #1748 on: January 03, 2019, 08:28:27 am »

FPTP wins with 61% in BC.

The absolute worst thing is my BC Liberal acquaintances pretending to be progressive. They celebrate the defeat of proportional representation but two years ago lamented the way Trudeau abandoned it.

That was a weird case. I was annoyed at Trudeau abandoning democratic reform but at the same time, I would take FPTP over Trudeau's proposed IRV system and I'm a huge fan of proportional representation.

IRV is irritating since how much a party is disliked can have a substanstial effect on its result, regardless of it's vote share. FPTP has this, but the effect is much more muted.

Yeah, imo IRV is the worst election system possible. It also for the most part makes sure that two parties dominate a system and can't be punished the way they should be. The acceptable systems in my eyes are either FPTP, jungle primary+runoff or proportional representation. But I'd always vote against IRV.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #1749 on: January 07, 2019, 11:58:36 am »

Kim Campbell agrees with Rashida Tlaib


Img
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