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Question: Does uniting the right in Alberta mean the NDP is toast next election?
Absolutely they are done like dinner   -14 (46.7%)
NDP still might win, but will be a steep hill to climb   -15 (50%)
NDP will likely win, UCP too extreme   -0 (0%)
NDP will definitely win   -1 (3.3%)
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Total Voters: 30

Author Topic: Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II  (Read 128399 times)
MaxQue
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« Reply #25 on: October 21, 2015, 05:45:34 pm »

An interesting question for policy wonks:

Premier Wynne introduced a pension plan in Ontario after Harper refused to expand CPP. Trudeau now has a majority and wants to expand CPP, but that would take a lot of time and negotiations with the provinces. Will/should she continue implementing the new pension plan only to possibly cancel it after a very short period of time, or should she hold off and try to help Trudeau fast track a new solution

I'm pretty sure I read she would suspend her plan if Trudeau won.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #26 on: October 21, 2015, 07:05:29 pm »

Duceppe is quitting tomorrow
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Antonio V
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« Reply #27 on: October 22, 2015, 12:21:45 am »


Does BQ have any capable leader to replace him with? Is it likely that this election could be for them what 1997 was for the PCs? Wishful thinking, I know... Tongue
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #28 on: October 22, 2015, 11:05:07 am »

Finley running for interim. She should be the consensus choice. Clement's considering the permanent leadership and presumably she consulted with Nicholson, the only other plausible choice. Ideally convention held within a year so next fall we're back in business.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #29 on: October 22, 2015, 11:11:02 am »


Does BQ have any capable leader to replace him with? Is it likely that this election could be for them what 1997 was for the PCs? Wishful thinking, I know... Tongue
Mario Beaulieu was the pre-Duceppe leader, and won his seat. I'd consider him a favourite, although admittedly I know nothing about the rest of the BQ caucus. Also, keep in mind that the Bloc vote decreased and they only won more seats because their main competitor, the NDP, collapsed and the Liberal wave was not nearly as strong as the 2011 NDP wave in francophone areas. The next election where the Francophone vote consolidates behind a single federalist party will also be the election where the Bloc is finally wiped out, I wouldn't call that wishful thinking.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #30 on: October 22, 2015, 11:19:15 am »


Does BQ have any capable leader to replace him with? Is it likely that this election could be for them what 1997 was for the PCs? Wishful thinking, I know... Tongue
Mario Beaulieu was the pre-Duceppe leader, and won his seat. I'd consider him a favourite, although admittedly I know nothing about the rest of the BQ caucus. Also, keep in mind that the Bloc vote decreased and they only won more seats because their main competitor, the NDP, collapsed and the Liberal wave was not nearly as strong as the 2011 NDP wave in francophone areas. The next election where the Francophone vote consolidates behind a single federalist party will also be the election where the Bloc is finally wiped out, I wouldn't call that wishful thinking.

Louis Plamondon is a plausible candidate. He's one of the BQ founders and doesn't have an extremist reputation. However he's in his 70's, and didn't run in the last two leadership contests. He may not want the job.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #31 on: October 22, 2015, 01:49:05 pm »

Rheal Fortin, newly elected MP for Riviere du Nord has been named interim Bloc leader.
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« Reply #32 on: October 22, 2015, 05:25:28 pm »

The next election where the Francophone vote consolidates behind a single federalist party will also be the election where the Bloc is finally wiped out, I wouldn't call that wishful thinking.

You're saying this as if it's bound to happen... For all we know, Québec could remain split 4-way for tbe next 50 years... Tongue
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« Reply #33 on: October 22, 2015, 05:31:49 pm »

Historically, Francophone Quebec has voted as block for one party. This election was the aberration. The BQ MPs mostly won by narrow margins, single digits mostly. Only a modest improvement from the LPC or NDP would be necessary to take them out.
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« Reply #34 on: October 22, 2015, 05:55:22 pm »

And also Duceppe is basically their only good politician. He's funny, can argue a point well, has a wide appeal etc. we'll see if the new bunch has anybody who can hold a candle, but for the most part Quebec is less interested in having sovereignties in parliament, locking the province from influencing government by entering power.
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« Reply #35 on: October 22, 2015, 10:02:06 pm »

There is a possibility of electoral reform for the next election (unless it was only campaign promise that they don't intend to pursue). This could change how MPs are elected. Perhaps parties with new leaders next time should not hurry to select new leaders because depending on the system it can influence what type of leader is preferable.
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« Reply #36 on: October 23, 2015, 03:50:35 pm »

Tory leadership is getting ugly.

Poilievre on opposition life.

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« Reply #37 on: October 23, 2015, 04:41:07 pm »

Not surprised Harper still wants to pull the strings even after he was defeated. Roll Eyes

He's really in a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. If he stays on as MP, he'll be accused of holding back party rebuilding, and the Liberals will gleefully turn 2019 into a second referendum on Harper. If he resigns like Prentice, he'll be forever disgraced and ostracized from the party.

Oh well, the least he could have done was find a consensus interim leader who would assume control first thing on October 20. That was too much for his ego, though.
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« Reply #38 on: October 24, 2015, 01:11:17 am »

Do you guys think Elizabeth May will remain Green party leader for the entirety of the incoming Parliament?
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« Reply #39 on: October 24, 2015, 03:11:36 am »

Do you guys think Elizabeth May will remain Green party leader for the entirety of the incoming Parliament?

I think so. Assuming Trudeau keeps his promise to kill FPTP, she needs to prepare the party for 2019 when they will almost definitely elect a sizeable caucus and become a permanent force in Parliament.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #40 on: October 24, 2015, 07:58:38 am »

Just in case you needed further proof that journalists can't do math.

Jeffery Simpson: Soft nationalists moved en masse back to the Bloc (BQ change in Quebec: -4.1%)

Conrad Black: The Tories "substantially increased their share in Quebec", (Con change in Quebec: +0.2%)

Roll Eyes
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #41 on: October 25, 2015, 03:46:05 pm »

He's really in a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. If he stays on as MP, he'll be accused of holding back party rebuilding, and the Liberals will gleefully turn 2019 into a second referendum on Harper. If he resigns like Prentice, he'll be forever disgraced and ostracized from the party.

I think the correct thing to do would be to quit when the new leader is elected. That should be long enough for the Liberal honeymoon to subside and to avoid any "quitting on election night" backlash, while still getting out of the way well in advance of the election.
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« Reply #42 on: October 26, 2015, 01:38:18 am »

He's really in a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. If he stays on as MP, he'll be accused of holding back party rebuilding, and the Liberals will gleefully turn 2019 into a second referendum on Harper. If he resigns like Prentice, he'll be forever disgraced and ostracized from the party.

I think the correct thing to do would be to quit when the new leader is elected. That should be long enough for the Liberal honeymoon to subside and to avoid any "quitting on election night" backlash, while still getting out of the way well in advance of the election.
IMO he should have stated himself on election night that he will step aside as party leader, he is proud of watching the party grow up, that it's time for it to make its own future, and that he will strictly sit as a backbencher.

Not doing so, even if he truly is merely a backbencher, allows the Liberals to accuse Harper of still secretly leading the party. They'll take the punditry speculating about Harper influencing the leadership race and run with attack ads showing Harper pulling the new leader's strings. Then Justin is guaranteed re-election (provided there's no video of him strangling a kitten).

For the good of the party, the leadership convention needs to be delayed to, say, 2017. And then Harper himself quietly resigns as an MP on a Friday night next, say, July, before quietly moving on to whatever else he wants to do. That gives the party enough time to rethink its direction and conduct a thorough debate about its future.
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« Reply #43 on: October 29, 2015, 04:40:24 pm »

Does someone have a link to the Macleans article about ethnic diversity in the new parliament? It had a nice visual break down, and I can't seem to find it.
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« Reply #44 on: October 29, 2015, 07:16:50 pm »

Does someone have a link to the Macleans article about ethnic diversity in the new parliament? It had a nice visual break down, and I can't seem to find it.

This one?

http://www.macleans.ca/shape-of-the-house/
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« Reply #45 on: October 29, 2015, 08:57:29 pm »

Does someone have a link to the Macleans article about ethnic diversity in the new parliament? It had a nice visual break down, and I can't seem to find it.

This one?

http://www.macleans.ca/shape-of-the-house/

Yes, thank you.
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« Reply #46 on: October 30, 2015, 09:29:45 pm »

Excellent Hebert column on the referendum's 20th anniversary today. Highly recommend her and Lapierre's The Morning After.
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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - de Gaulle



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« Reply #47 on: November 01, 2015, 07:57:36 am »

Star revealed some senior portfolios: Goodale as DPM/House Leader, Brison at Finance, Dion at Environment, Freeland at Foreign Affairs or International Trade. Vaughan and Bennett won't make it.
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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - de Gaulle



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« Reply #48 on: November 01, 2015, 08:46:24 am »


I would have preferred Morneau, but Brison is a good pick to reassure Bay St. I'm kind of curious to see how much an effect he will have on the budget, given that he was a quasi-libertarian at times during his two leadership campaigns. He was pro-private healthcare, pro-EI reform (which is weird considering how EI reform screwed the Tories in ATL), and I think he has said some nice things about corporate tax cuts and flat taxes.
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« Reply #49 on: November 01, 2015, 09:19:28 am »

More than that: he proposed eliminating capital gains taxes 4 years ago. But he'll follow the Grit pattern of other Blue finance ministers who served under Red PMs...
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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - Mencken
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