Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

[Kingpoleon]

The Alberta Party, if it wants to be seriously effective, needs to ally with the Liberals and the Redford wing of the Progressive Conservatives.

You mean the hilariously corrupt one?

I believe I was rather clearly referring to her ideology.

[RogueBeaver]

Hadfield could be the next GG.

[136or142]

Steven Fletcher expelled from Manitoba P.C caucus
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/steven-fletcher-expelled-from-caucus-1.4185892

[Santander]

Happy Dominion Day.

[warandwar]

The Alberta Party, if it wants to be seriously effective, needs to ally with the Liberals and the Redford wing of the Progressive Conservatives.

You mean the hilariously corrupt one?

I believe I was rather clearly referring to her ideology.

Isn't her ideology corruption, though?

[MaxQue]

The Alberta Party, if it wants to be seriously effective, needs to ally with the Liberals and the Redford wing of the Progressive Conservatives.

You mean the hilariously corrupt one?

I believe I was rather clearly referring to her ideology.

Isn't her ideology corruption, though?

Well, she had a faction backing her. The centrist one.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Alberta Party, if it wants to be seriously effective, needs to ally with the Liberals and the Redford wing of the Progressive Conservatives.

You mean the hilariously corrupt one?

I believe I was rather clearly referring to her ideology.

Isn't her ideology corruption, though?

Well, she had a faction backing her. The centrist one.

In general it is disingenuous to claim her ideology was 'corruption', because corruption knows no one political ideology.

[136or142]

The Alberta Party, if it wants to be seriously effective, needs to ally with the Liberals and the Redford wing of the Progressive Conservatives.

You mean the hilariously corrupt one?

I believe I was rather clearly referring to her ideology.

Isn't her ideology corruption, though?

Well, she had a faction backing her. The centrist one.

In general it is disingenuous to claim her ideology was 'corruption', because corruption knows no one political ideology.

She was no more or less corrupt than Ralph Klein.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hadfield could be the next GG.

Not French. GGs alternate between Anglos and Francos, and I suspect there is also a male, male, female, female tradition emerging as well (has been that way since Jeanne Sauve). So, the next GG will likely be a Francophone man. You up for it, RB?

(ETA: The article mentions the French / English tradition, but fails to mention why Trudeau would abandon it, saying only "The belief however is the new governor-general need not be francophone this time". Umm, ok, why?? )

[MaxQue]

Hadfield could be the next GG.

Not French. GGs alternate between Anglos and Francos, and I suspect there is also a male, male, female, female tradition emerging as well (has been that way since Jeanne Sauve). So, the next GG will likely be a Francophone man. You up for it, RB?

(ETA: The article mentions the French / English tradition, but fails to mention why Trudeau would abandon it, saying only "The belief however is the new governor-general need not be francophone this time". Umm, ok, why?? )

I think it's implied Hadfield would be too big to pass on and than it's gravita will allow him to pass it easily (even francophones people like him). He can also says he cannot wait 15 years to appoint him (next male anglophone), as he would be old.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hadfield could be the next GG.

Not French. GGs alternate between Anglos and Francos, and I suspect there is also a male, male, female, female tradition emerging as well (has been that way since Jeanne Sauve). So, the next GG will likely be a Francophone man. You up for it, RB?

(ETA: The article mentions the French / English tradition, but fails to mention why Trudeau would abandon it, saying only "The belief however is the new governor-general need not be francophone this time". Umm, ok, why?? )

I think it's implied Hadfield would be too big to pass on and than it's gravita will allow him to pass it easily (even francophones people like him). He can also says he cannot wait 15 years to appoint him (next male anglophone), as he would be old.

Hmmm. He would be an awesome choice of course. Perhaps too awesome.  Would Trudeau want to pick someone who would steal his stardom? (I guess he's thinking the choice would just enhance his own popularity).

[Lord Halifax]

They should go with an Indigenous candidate as planned - there is at least three good choices.

[RogueBeaver]

Khadr's getting an apology & $10M compensation.

[DC Al Fine]

Peterson eyeing Ambrose's seat.

[RogueBeaver]

Albertan conservatives eyeing Plan B if Wildrose sinks merger.

[Poirot]

The NDP-Québec will choose a permanent leader January 21 2018 to replace interim leader Pierre Ducasse.

Race starts September 1st. Nomination period ends October 20.

It plans to set up regional associations in Quebec City, Chaudière-Appalaches, Montérégie and Outaouais.

http://montrealgazette.com/news/ndp-quebec-to-elect-new-leader-in-january

[Njall]

Regarding the proposed Alberta conservative merger: Some Wildrosers are preparing to create a new party if the deal goes through, and Starke seems (IMO) to be hinting at going independent and not joining the UCP if the deal is approved

[DC Al Fine]

Regarding the proposed Alberta conservative merger: Some Wildrosers are preparing to create a new party if the deal goes through, and Starke seems (IMO) to be hinting at going independent and not joining the UCP if the deal is approved

A couple questions for Njall or anyone else who cares to comment:

1) The 2004 federal election shows us that predicting results won't be as simple as 2015 PC vote + 2015 Wildrose vote. The Tories lost 15-20 seats they "should" have won based on the 2000 results. Assuming all breakaway third parties, indy runs are flops, how much of the combined conservative vote do you think the NDP/Liberals/Alberta Party will be able to pick off? What does that mean in seats?

2) Are Wildrose hardliners mostly libertarians, socons or populists? What are the odds that they are able to get a meaningful % of the vote?

[Njall]

Regarding the proposed Alberta conservative merger: Some Wildrosers are preparing to create a new party if the deal goes through, and Starke seems (IMO) to be hinting at going independent and not joining the UCP if the deal is approved

A couple questions for Njall or anyone else who cares to comment:

1) The 2004 federal election shows us that predicting results won't be as simple as 2015 PC vote + 2015 Wildrose vote. The Tories lost 15-20 seats they "should" have won based on the 2000 results. Assuming all breakaway third parties, indy runs are flops, how much of the combined conservative vote do you think the NDP/Liberals/Alberta Party will be able to pick off? What does that mean in seats?

2) Are Wildrose hardliners mostly libertarians, socons or populists? What are the odds that they are able to get a meaningful % of the vote?

1) This question is very difficult to answer for a number of reasons, including not knowing what the price of oil (and therefore the budget and employment situations) will be in 2019, and not knowing who the leader of the UCP will be. That said, I'll take a stab at it. The 2012 and 2015 elections showed that Albertans saw substantive differences between the PCs and WRP, so it's essentially assured that some of their bases will drop off. The Liberals are essentially dead-in-the-water now, so if that stays the same in 2019, I doubt many voters will gravitate there. I also have a hard time seeing the NDP getting a net gain in votes given how poorly they've been polling, and how the ongoing rhetoric from opposition parties and in the media seems to be almost solely blaming the NDP for the province's current economic and financial situation. So that would leave the Alberta Party as the logical recipient of former conservative voters who don't want to support the UCP, especially since the ABP has taken a more clearly fiscally conservative tack since the last election.

In terms of seats, I imagine that gravitation towards the ABP from former conservative voters would probably have more of an effect of preserving some marginal NDP seats than gaining seats for the ABP. Now, we don't know what the map will look like yet, but take the current riding of Calgary-Currie, in inner(-ish) city Calgary, for example: the NDP won there with just under 40% of the vote, and the combined PC+WRP vote was nearly 45%. Given the close margin and the demographics of the riding, I could definitely see a conservative move to the ABP helping the NDP win here again.

I don't know how many voters province wide would move from conservative to ABP, mind you. But I remember seeing an interesting poll from last year that asked about political spectrum identification, amongst other things. In that poll, without excluding those who were unsure (roughly a quarter of respondents), 27% of PC and 11% of WRP voters self-identified as centrists, while a further 9% of PC and 1% of WRP voters self-identified as centre-left. Assuming for a moment that those poll results were accurate, even without considering centre-right voters uncomfortable with a UCP, they suggest that around a third of PC voter and a tenth of WRP voters would be open to migrating to more of a centrist party.


2) From what I can tell, the WRP hardline would likely lean more towards socons and populists. Historically, when right-wing splinter parties in Alberta have gained some steam they've ended up polling between 5% and 12% provincially. This would likely have a spoiler effect for the UCP more than actual success for the hypothetical party. In 2004, for example, the upstart Alberta Alliance got 8.7% of the vote province-wide. They only won 1 seat, but there's a case to be made that they enabled PC losses in up to 7 other seats.

[DC Al Fine]

Very interesting thanks.

[Hatman 🍁]

Even with a united conservative party, the right wing in Alberta will inevitably splinter. Even if it takes another 30 years.

[RogueBeaver]

CP says new GG announcement tomorrow probably a Francophone.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's Julie Payette. So, at least they got the profession correct.

[brucejoel99]

It's Julie Payette. So, at least they got the profession correct.

Sorry, maybe I'm uninformed lol, but who's the "they" you're referring to??

[Hatman 🍁]

It's Julie Payette. So, at least they got the profession correct.

Sorry, maybe I'm uninformed lol, but who's the "they" you're referring to??

John Ivison specifically. RB posted an article on the last page by him claiming Chris Hadfield was going to be the next GG.