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Poll
Question: Does uniting the right in Alberta mean the NDP is toast next election?
Absolutely they are done like dinner   -14 (46.7%)
NDP still might win, but will be a steep hill to climb   -15 (50%)
NDP will likely win, UCP too extreme   -0 (0%)
NDP will definitely win   -1 (3.3%)
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Total Voters: 30

Author Topic: Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II  (Read 95911 times)
DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1075 on: September 14, 2017, 04:30:38 am »
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Haha oops
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« Reply #1076 on: September 14, 2017, 10:06:22 am »
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RIP: Grit MP Arnold Chan (Scarborough-Agincourt) has died at 50.
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« Reply #1077 on: September 14, 2017, 11:37:55 am »
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Very sad, such a young age.  In terms of by-elections this should probably stay with the Grits although the Tories surprisingly did better in 2015 than 2011, one of the few ridings this happened but still would be shocked if they picked it up.  Nonetheless at this point probably best to remember him and worry about the by-election later. 
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« Reply #1078 on: September 14, 2017, 05:14:29 pm »
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Very sad, such a young age.  In terms of by-elections this should probably stay with the Grits although the Tories surprisingly did better in 2015 than 2011, one of the few ridings this happened but still would be shocked if they picked it up.  Nonetheless at this point probably best to remember him and worry about the by-election later. 

I would assume the Conservatives did better in 2015 in that riding because Chan was already in poor health. Sad
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« Reply #1079 on: September 15, 2017, 08:44:54 am »
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No, the Chinese are trending Conservative. It could very well be a close race.
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« Reply #1080 on: September 15, 2017, 03:59:35 pm »
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No, the Chinese are trending Conservative. It could very well be a close race.

Not in Richmond, British Columbia.
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« Reply #1081 on: September 15, 2017, 05:49:02 pm »
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No, the Chinese are trending Conservative. It could very well be a close race.

Not in Richmond, British Columbia.

Federally they are, but provincially they are not.  The swing against the Conservatives in Richmond was much less than the province as a whole in the same in the heavy Chinese areas of the GTA.  However it's true provincially the swing against the BC Liberals was quite strong there.  I am guessing unlike in the past where many voted Liberal federally and BC Liberal provincially you are seeing those who vote BC Liberal provincially going over to the Conservatives whereas those who have stayed with the federal Liberals are going over to the BC NDP.
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« Reply #1082 on: September 22, 2017, 12:00:02 pm »
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Mainstreet-QC: 30/26/26/18. PQ recovering from its summer swoon for now, Grits now 3rd (lmao) among Francophones while Lisée's still in grave danger of losing Rosemont. Per Breguet, CAQ's better distribution helps them on seat count. In related news, PSPP is officially running in swingy Prévost. My guess is that Grits get voted out if they don't win a majority.
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« Reply #1083 on: September 22, 2017, 02:48:29 pm »
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Mainstreet-QC: 30/26/26/18. PQ recovering from its summer swoon for now, Grits now 3rd (lmao) among Francophones while Lisée's still in grave danger of losing Rosemont. Per Breguet, CAQ's better distribution helps them on seat count. In related news, PSPP is officially running in swingy Prévost. My guess is that Grits get voted out if they don't win a majority.

Maybe a repeat of 2007 where you had similar seat breakdowns.  Although the Liberals being ahead amongst seniors is probably a good thing is they are most likely to vote and I have found in recent elections polls tend to underestimate PLQ support.  By contrast I find polls tend to overestimate Quebec Solidaire support which skews heavily towards younger voters who are least likely to vote so I would be surprised but not shocked if QS actually got 18%.
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« Reply #1084 on: September 26, 2017, 12:58:18 am »
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This seems a bit out of whack with other polls http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2782/federal-horserace-september-2017/ so probably a rogue poll although maybe picking up on a trend.  We shall find out with the next round of polls.  Although I've noticed in general Conservatives tend to do best on the IVR polls while online polls the worst and CATI somewhere in between.  I am guessing perhaps age demographics as IVR polls skew heavily towards older voters while online are more skewed towards younger.  That being said Trudeau's approval is only -4 which is better than most premiers including one's who have successfully been re-elected and Scheer is largely unknown making those numbers even more questionable.

I've found Forum is pretty good when it comes to final polls, but definitely in between elections they've had a lot of weird ones that didn't make sense, but no way of knowing whether they were right or not as you can only accurately compare final polls to actual results as opposed to midterm ones.  If this were the numbers on October 20, 2019 then maybe it would be a sign something big is going to happen, but two years out from an election, probably doesn't mean a whole lot.  Off course the Liberals would be silly to assume they have the election in the bag and likewise the Tories would be silly to think winning in 2019 will be easy (the odds of them winning even with this poll are still fairly low although not zero).
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« Reply #1085 on: September 26, 2017, 01:15:16 am »
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This seems a bit out of whack with other polls http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2782/federal-horserace-september-2017/ so probably a rogue poll although maybe picking up on a trend.  We shall find out with the next round of polls.  Although I've noticed in general Conservatives tend to do best on the IVR polls while online polls the worst and CATI somewhere in between.  I am guessing perhaps age demographics as IVR polls skew heavily towards older voters while online are more skewed towards younger.  That being said Trudeau's approval is only -4 which is better than most premiers including one's who have successfully been re-elected and Scheer is largely unknown making those numbers even more questionable.

I've found Forum is pretty good when it comes to final polls, but definitely in between elections they've had a lot of weird ones that didn't make sense, but no way of knowing whether they were right or not as you can only accurately compare final polls to actual results as opposed to midterm ones.  If this were the numbers on October 20, 2019 then maybe it would be a sign something big is going to happen, but two years out from an election, probably doesn't mean a whole lot.  Off course the Liberals would be silly to assume they have the election in the bag and likewise the Tories would be silly to think winning in 2019 will be easy (the odds of them winning even with this poll are still fairly low although not zero).

How were things looking electorally for Jean Chretien halfway through his 1st term in 1995? We're the PC's or  Reform in any reasonable striking distance? I guess things may have looked artificially bad, as this would have been during the lead up to the Quebec independence referendum.
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« Reply #1086 on: September 26, 2017, 04:45:15 am »
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This seems a bit out of whack with other polls http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2782/federal-horserace-september-2017/ so probably a rogue poll although maybe picking up on a trend.  We shall find out with the next round of polls.  Although I've noticed in general Conservatives tend to do best on the IVR polls while online polls the worst and CATI somewhere in between.  I am guessing perhaps age demographics as IVR polls skew heavily towards older voters while online are more skewed towards younger.  That being said Trudeau's approval is only -4 which is better than most premiers including one's who have successfully been re-elected and Scheer is largely unknown making those numbers even more questionable.

I've found Forum is pretty good when it comes to final polls, but definitely in between elections they've had a lot of weird ones that didn't make sense, but no way of knowing whether they were right or not as you can only accurately compare final polls to actual results as opposed to midterm ones.  If this were the numbers on October 20, 2019 then maybe it would be a sign something big is going to happen, but two years out from an election, probably doesn't mean a whole lot.  Off course the Liberals would be silly to assume they have the election in the bag and likewise the Tories would be silly to think winning in 2019 will be easy (the odds of them winning even with this poll are still fairly low although not zero).

How were things looking electorally for Jean Chretien halfway through his 1st term in 1995? We're the PC's or  Reform in any reasonable striking distance? I guess things may have looked artificially bad, as this would have been during the lead up to the Quebec independence referendum.

The Chretien era Liberals tended to poll really well (like 50-55%) most of the time before coming down to earth during election campaigns.
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« Reply #1087 on: September 26, 2017, 06:55:53 am »
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This seems a bit out of whack with other polls http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2782/federal-horserace-september-2017/ so probably a rogue poll although maybe picking up on a trend.  We shall find out with the next round of polls.  Although I've noticed in general Conservatives tend to do best on the IVR polls while online polls the worst and CATI somewhere in between.  I am guessing perhaps age demographics as IVR polls skew heavily towards older voters while online are more skewed towards younger.  That being said Trudeau's approval is only -4 which is better than most premiers including one's who have successfully been re-elected and Scheer is largely unknown making those numbers even more questionable.

I've found Forum is pretty good when it comes to final polls, but definitely in between elections they've had a lot of weird ones that didn't make sense, but no way of knowing whether they were right or not as you can only accurately compare final polls to actual results as opposed to midterm ones.  If this were the numbers on October 20, 2019 then maybe it would be a sign something big is going to happen, but two years out from an election, probably doesn't mean a whole lot.  Off course the Liberals would be silly to assume they have the election in the bag and likewise the Tories would be silly to think winning in 2019 will be easy (the odds of them winning even with this poll are still fairly low although not zero).

Yes, this would be a 13% swing from their poll from last month, which is a bit hard to believe, though not actually outside the realm of statistical possibility. 

I don't have any evidence regarding this, but while Forum certainly does have a solid track record of their final election polls which was reported by the one outlet that I read who reported on this poll, I wonder if Forum doesn't spend a great deal more money on their final pre-election survey than they do on their other polls.

I've written before that Forum is perfect for the sensationalist mainstream media:  not only are their polls cheap which means less cost for the media, but they sometimes produce wild swings like this poll, which the media loves to breathlessly report on.  Of course, it also can't be discounted that this poll is accurate.
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« Reply #1088 on: September 26, 2017, 07:02:42 am »
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This seems a bit out of whack with other polls http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2782/federal-horserace-september-2017/ so probably a rogue poll although maybe picking up on a trend.  We shall find out with the next round of polls.  Although I've noticed in general Conservatives tend to do best on the IVR polls while online polls the worst and CATI somewhere in between.  I am guessing perhaps age demographics as IVR polls skew heavily towards older voters while online are more skewed towards younger.  That being said Trudeau's approval is only -4 which is better than most premiers including one's who have successfully been re-elected and Scheer is largely unknown making those numbers even more questionable.

I've found Forum is pretty good when it comes to final polls, but definitely in between elections they've had a lot of weird ones that didn't make sense, but no way of knowing whether they were right or not as you can only accurately compare final polls to actual results as opposed to midterm ones.  If this were the numbers on October 20, 2019 then maybe it would be a sign something big is going to happen, but two years out from an election, probably doesn't mean a whole lot.  Off course the Liberals would be silly to assume they have the election in the bag and likewise the Tories would be silly to think winning in 2019 will be easy (the odds of them winning even with this poll are still fairly low although not zero).

How were things looking electorally for Jean Chretien halfway through his 1st term in 1995? We're the PC's or  Reform in any reasonable striking distance? I guess things may have looked artificially bad, as this would have been during the lead up to the Quebec independence referendum.

The Chretien era Liberals tended to poll really well (like 50-55%) most of the time before coming down to earth during election campaigns.

I think that was much more the case in 1997 than in 2000 when the Liberals were clearly surprised by the ferocity of the attacks from the opposition parties, and even more so, by having to respond to these attacks that were coming at them from various sides of the ideological spectrum as the Progressive Conservatives made a comeback under Jean Charest in the Atlantic Provinces and somewhat in Quebec.

In that election, the Progressive Conservatives were set to make a much bigger comeback in Quebec, but the one province Chretien was an expert in campaigning in was Quebec and he used some underhanded campaign tactics himself to reduce the P.C vote to the point where the P.Cs only won five seats. 

I forget what Chretien did, but with that and with the Reform Party under Preston Manning running his 'not just Quebec politicians anymore' advertisement that was correctly interpreted as 'no more Quebec politicians anymore,'  the 1997 election wasn't one that the main parties could exactly be proud of.
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« Reply #1089 on: September 26, 2017, 11:25:26 am »
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Chretien had a much bigger lead than Trudeau did mind you he faced a much more divided and weaker opposition.  The PCs got 2 seats in 1993 and NDP 9 seats so neither could realistically win the next election while the BQ only ran in Quebec and the Reform Party may have won more seats than the NDP has now, but their vote was heavily concentrated in the Western provinces thus they would have needed a much bigger uniform swing to topple the government.

Interestingly enough Nanos sort of confirms Forum at least directionally although not to degree (I find Forum is good at picking up trends, but tends to exaggerate shifts).  Last week Liberals had a 10.9 lead (40.9 to 30%) while this week it is only six points (38.5% to 32.5%) and Nanos is a four week rolling poll so this week's numbers were probably even tighter.  Still it's two years away and I suspect if the Liberal's own internal polls paint as bad a picture they will make changes.  Off course their tax fight might be more about distracting the upcoming NDP leadership race hoping to drive down the NDP vote thus why they are playing up the class warfare and it seems to be working considering the NDP polling numbers.  Yes it may be costing them some Red Tory and Blue Liberal votes, but perhaps they figure they will win those back on something else or if they paint Scheer as an extremist that group will hold their nose and vote Liberal even if unhappy.
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« Reply #1090 on: September 26, 2017, 11:32:31 am »
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Chretien had a much bigger lead than Trudeau did mind you he faced a much more divided and weaker opposition.  The PCs got 2 seats in 1993 and NDP 9 seats so neither could realistically win the next election while the BQ only ran in Quebec and the Reform Party may have won more seats than the NDP has now, but their vote was heavily concentrated in the Western provinces thus they would have needed a much bigger uniform swing to topple the government.

Interestingly enough Nanos sort of confirms Forum at least directionally although not to degree (I find Forum is good at picking up trends, but tends to exaggerate shifts).  Last week Liberals had a 10.9 lead (40.9 to 30%) while this week it is only six points (38.5% to 32.5%) and Nanos is a four week rolling poll so this week's numbers were probably even tighter.  Still it's two years away and I suspect if the Liberal's own internal polls paint as bad a picture they will make changes.  Off course their tax fight might be more about distracting the upcoming NDP leadership race hoping to drive down the NDP vote thus why they are playing up the class warfare and it seems to be working considering the NDP polling numbers.  Yes it may be costing them some Red Tory and Blue Liberal votes, but perhaps they figure they will win those back on something else or if they paint Scheer as an extremist that group will hold their nose and vote Liberal even if unhappy.

I don't think the Liberals meant to have the elimination of these small business tax breaks as 'class warfare.'  That seems to be an argument entirely from small business groups themselves as well as from the Conservatives.  The Liberals themselves clearly seem to have been taken by surprise at the charges leveled against them by the effected small businesses as well as the breathtaking dishonesty these small business groups are employing.
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« Reply #1091 on: October 01, 2017, 12:01:27 pm »
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http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/01/americas/edmonton-vehicle-attacks-investigation/index.html

Terrorist attack in Edmonton being investigated. Fortunately, it doesn't seem like anyone was killed, but the details of the attack on the police officer are rather horrific.
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« Reply #1092 on: October 01, 2017, 08:30:39 pm »
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It's kinda funny that now "young" Justin Trudeau is the oldest of the three major party leaders.
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« Reply #1093 on: October 01, 2017, 10:22:35 pm »
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https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2017-10-01/canadian-sikh-politician-is-new-leader-of-federal-new-democrat-party

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Jagmeet Singh, an Ontario provincial lawmaker and practicing Sikh, was elected on Sunday as leader of Canada's left-leaning New Democrats, becoming the first non-white politician to head a major Canadian political party.


The 38-year-old lawyer, whose penchant for colorful turbans and tailor-made three-piece suits made him a social media star, was elected on the first ballot to lead the New Democratic Party into the 2019 federal election against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberals.


"Thank you, New Democrats. The run for Prime Minister begins now," Singh tweeted.


Singh secured 54 percent of the vote, defeating three rivals to become the new head of the NDP, succeeding Thomas Mulcair. The results of the vote, conducted online and by mail, were announced at a party meeting in Toronto.



The Toronto-area politician, who led in fundraising since joining the race last May, had been touted by supporters as someone who could bring new life to the party, which has struggled since the death of charismatic former leader Jack Layton in 2011.


The NDP is the third largest party in the federal Parliament, with 44 of 338 seats. The party lags well behind the centrist Liberals and right-leaning Conservatives in political fundraising this year, according to Elections Canada data.


Singh will now focus on rallying supporters and targeting center-left voters who helped propel Trudeau's Liberals to a decisive victory in 2015.


There are hurdles ahead. Singh does not have a seat in the federal parliament and will have to win one in a special election. He also needs to persuade voters that his party can form a government, although it has never held power federally.


There are also questions over whether he will have success in Quebec, Canada's mainly French-speaking province, where overt signs of faith are frowned upon.


Cue the comparisons to Barack Obama in three, two, one...
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« Reply #1094 on: October 02, 2017, 12:12:27 am »
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https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2017-10-01/canadian-sikh-politician-is-new-leader-of-federal-new-democrat-party

Quote
Jagmeet Singh, an Ontario provincial lawmaker and practicing Sikh, was elected on Sunday as leader of Canada's left-leaning New Democrats, becoming the first non-white politician to head a major Canadian political party.


The 38-year-old lawyer, whose penchant for colorful turbans and tailor-made three-piece suits made him a social media star, was elected on the first ballot to lead the New Democratic Party into the 2019 federal election against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberals.


"Thank you, New Democrats. The run for Prime Minister begins now," Singh tweeted.


Singh secured 54 percent of the vote, defeating three rivals to become the new head of the NDP, succeeding Thomas Mulcair. The results of the vote, conducted online and by mail, were announced at a party meeting in Toronto.



The Toronto-area politician, who led in fundraising since joining the race last May, had been touted by supporters as someone who could bring new life to the party, which has struggled since the death of charismatic former leader Jack Layton in 2011.


The NDP is the third largest party in the federal Parliament, with 44 of 338 seats. The party lags well behind the centrist Liberals and right-leaning Conservatives in political fundraising this year, according to Elections Canada data.


Singh will now focus on rallying supporters and targeting center-left voters who helped propel Trudeau's Liberals to a decisive victory in 2015.


There are hurdles ahead. Singh does not have a seat in the federal parliament and will have to win one in a special election. He also needs to persuade voters that his party can form a government, although it has never held power federally.


There are also questions over whether he will have success in Quebec, Canada's mainly French-speaking province, where overt signs of faith are frowned upon.


Cue the comparisons to Barack Obama in three, two, one...

Americans may compare Singh to Obama, but I think most Canadians who are familiar with Singh compare him to former NDP leader Jack Layton in terms of his rhetoric and to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in terms of his youth and charisma (Layton was also charismatic, and I think Singh's charisma is more comparable to Layton's personally in that they're both kind of pleasantly goofy.)
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« Reply #1095 on: October 02, 2017, 03:32:48 am »
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It's kinda funny that now "young" Justin Trudeau is the oldest of the three major party leaders.

Wow, yeah, this is pretty impressive. He's 7 years older than both of the other leaders. Quite the contrast against the US, where so many major contenders for 2020 are around 70.
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« Reply #1096 on: October 02, 2017, 03:35:35 am »
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It's kinda funny that now "young" Justin Trudeau is the oldest of the three major party leaders.

Wow, yeah, this is pretty impressive. He's 7 years older than both of the other leaders. Quite the contrast against the US, where so many major contenders for 2020 are around 70.
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« Reply #1097 on: October 04, 2017, 10:38:54 am »
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Alberta MLA Karen McPherson (Calgary-Mackay-Nose Hill) has left the NDP caucus to sit as an independent, citing dissatisfaction with increased polarization in the political system.
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« Reply #1098 on: October 04, 2017, 04:48:00 pm »
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I was able to find some pretty rare footage of different Canadian election nights. I watched 93,97,2000, 2004 on C-SPAN. I was trying to find 1993 coverage for years on YouTube with no luck.


2004 https://www.c-span.org/video/?182468-1/canadian-election-night-coverage

2000 https://www.c-span.org/video/?160814-1/canadian-election-returns

1997 https://www.c-span.org/video/?c3342938/1997-canadian-election

1993 https://www.c-span.org/video/?51860-1/canadian-election-special

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« Reply #1099 on: October 04, 2017, 06:14:44 pm »
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Alberta MLA Karen McPherson (Calgary-Mackay-Nose Hill) has left the NDP caucus to sit as an independent, citing dissatisfaction with increased polarization in the political system.

Interesting.  To be fair the riding pretty much always went PC prior to 2015 and still votes Conservative federally so it's not likely she would have been able to hold her riding unless the UCP messes up really badly.
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