Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II
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  Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II
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Poll
Question: Does uniting the right in Alberta mean the NDP is toast next election?
#1
Absolutely they are done like dinner
 
#2
NDP still might win, but will be a steep hill to climb
 
#3
NDP will likely win, UCP too extreme
 
#4
NDP will definitely win
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 30

Author Topic: Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II  (Read 188630 times)
136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #1075 on: September 26, 2017, 07:02:42 AM »

This seems a bit out of whack with other polls http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2782/federal-horserace-september-2017/ so probably a rogue poll although maybe picking up on a trend.  We shall find out with the next round of polls.  Although I've noticed in general Conservatives tend to do best on the IVR polls while online polls the worst and CATI somewhere in between.  I am guessing perhaps age demographics as IVR polls skew heavily towards older voters while online are more skewed towards younger.  That being said Trudeau's approval is only -4 which is better than most premiers including one's who have successfully been re-elected and Scheer is largely unknown making those numbers even more questionable.

I've found Forum is pretty good when it comes to final polls, but definitely in between elections they've had a lot of weird ones that didn't make sense, but no way of knowing whether they were right or not as you can only accurately compare final polls to actual results as opposed to midterm ones.  If this were the numbers on October 20, 2019 then maybe it would be a sign something big is going to happen, but two years out from an election, probably doesn't mean a whole lot.  Off course the Liberals would be silly to assume they have the election in the bag and likewise the Tories would be silly to think winning in 2019 will be easy (the odds of them winning even with this poll are still fairly low although not zero).

How were things looking electorally for Jean Chretien halfway through his 1st term in 1995? We're the PC's or  Reform in any reasonable striking distance? I guess things may have looked artificially bad, as this would have been during the lead up to the Quebec independence referendum.

The Chretien era Liberals tended to poll really well (like 50-55%) most of the time before coming down to earth during election campaigns.

I think that was much more the case in 1997 than in 2000 when the Liberals were clearly surprised by the ferocity of the attacks from the opposition parties, and even more so, by having to respond to these attacks that were coming at them from various sides of the ideological spectrum as the Progressive Conservatives made a comeback under Jean Charest in the Atlantic Provinces and somewhat in Quebec.

In that election, the Progressive Conservatives were set to make a much bigger comeback in Quebec, but the one province Chretien was an expert in campaigning in was Quebec and he used some underhanded campaign tactics himself to reduce the P.C vote to the point where the P.Cs only won five seats. 

I forget what Chretien did, but with that and with the Reform Party under Preston Manning running his 'not just Quebec politicians anymore' advertisement that was correctly interpreted as 'no more Quebec politicians anymore,'  the 1997 election wasn't one that the main parties could exactly be proud of.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1076 on: September 26, 2017, 11:25:26 AM »

Chretien had a much bigger lead than Trudeau did mind you he faced a much more divided and weaker opposition.  The PCs got 2 seats in 1993 and NDP 9 seats so neither could realistically win the next election while the BQ only ran in Quebec and the Reform Party may have won more seats than the NDP has now, but their vote was heavily concentrated in the Western provinces thus they would have needed a much bigger uniform swing to topple the government.

Interestingly enough Nanos sort of confirms Forum at least directionally although not to degree (I find Forum is good at picking up trends, but tends to exaggerate shifts).  Last week Liberals had a 10.9 lead (40.9 to 30%) while this week it is only six points (38.5% to 32.5%) and Nanos is a four week rolling poll so this week's numbers were probably even tighter.  Still it's two years away and I suspect if the Liberal's own internal polls paint as bad a picture they will make changes.  Off course their tax fight might be more about distracting the upcoming NDP leadership race hoping to drive down the NDP vote thus why they are playing up the class warfare and it seems to be working considering the NDP polling numbers.  Yes it may be costing them some Red Tory and Blue Liberal votes, but perhaps they figure they will win those back on something else or if they paint Scheer as an extremist that group will hold their nose and vote Liberal even if unhappy.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #1077 on: September 26, 2017, 11:32:31 AM »

Chretien had a much bigger lead than Trudeau did mind you he faced a much more divided and weaker opposition.  The PCs got 2 seats in 1993 and NDP 9 seats so neither could realistically win the next election while the BQ only ran in Quebec and the Reform Party may have won more seats than the NDP has now, but their vote was heavily concentrated in the Western provinces thus they would have needed a much bigger uniform swing to topple the government.

Interestingly enough Nanos sort of confirms Forum at least directionally although not to degree (I find Forum is good at picking up trends, but tends to exaggerate shifts).  Last week Liberals had a 10.9 lead (40.9 to 30%) while this week it is only six points (38.5% to 32.5%) and Nanos is a four week rolling poll so this week's numbers were probably even tighter.  Still it's two years away and I suspect if the Liberal's own internal polls paint as bad a picture they will make changes.  Off course their tax fight might be more about distracting the upcoming NDP leadership race hoping to drive down the NDP vote thus why they are playing up the class warfare and it seems to be working considering the NDP polling numbers.  Yes it may be costing them some Red Tory and Blue Liberal votes, but perhaps they figure they will win those back on something else or if they paint Scheer as an extremist that group will hold their nose and vote Liberal even if unhappy.

I don't think the Liberals meant to have the elimination of these small business tax breaks as 'class warfare.'  That seems to be an argument entirely from small business groups themselves as well as from the Conservatives.  The Liberals themselves clearly seem to have been taken by surprise at the charges leveled against them by the effected small businesses as well as the breathtaking dishonesty these small business groups are employing.
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Santander
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« Reply #1078 on: October 01, 2017, 12:01:27 PM »

http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/01/americas/edmonton-vehicle-attacks-investigation/index.html

Terrorist attack in Edmonton being investigated. Fortunately, it doesn't seem like anyone was killed, but the details of the attack on the police officer are rather horrific.
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Kamala
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« Reply #1079 on: October 01, 2017, 08:30:39 PM »

It's kinda funny that now "young" Justin Trudeau is the oldest of the three major party leaders.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #1080 on: October 01, 2017, 10:22:35 PM »

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2017-10-01/canadian-sikh-politician-is-new-leader-of-federal-new-democrat-party

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Cue the comparisons to Barack Obama in three, two, one...
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #1081 on: October 02, 2017, 12:12:27 AM »
« Edited: October 02, 2017, 12:15:55 AM by Adam T »


Americans may compare Singh to Obama, but I think most Canadians who are familiar with Singh compare him to former NDP leader Jack Layton in terms of his rhetoric and to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in terms of his youth and charisma (Layton was also charismatic, and I think Singh's charisma is more comparable to Layton's personally in that they're both kind of pleasantly goofy.)
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America Needs R'hllor
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« Reply #1082 on: October 02, 2017, 03:32:48 AM »

It's kinda funny that now "young" Justin Trudeau is the oldest of the three major party leaders.

Wow, yeah, this is pretty impressive. He's 7 years older than both of the other leaders. Quite the contrast against the US, where so many major contenders for 2020 are around 70.
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America Needs R'hllor
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« Reply #1083 on: October 02, 2017, 03:35:35 AM »

It's kinda funny that now "young" Justin Trudeau is the oldest of the three major party leaders.

Wow, yeah, this is pretty impressive. He's 7 years older than both of the other leaders. Quite the contrast against the US, where so many major contenders for 2020 are around 70.
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Njall
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« Reply #1084 on: October 04, 2017, 10:38:54 AM »

Alberta MLA Karen McPherson (Calgary-Mackay-Nose Hill) has left the NDP caucus to sit as an independent, citing dissatisfaction with increased polarization in the political system.
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« Reply #1085 on: October 04, 2017, 04:48:00 PM »

I was able to find some pretty rare footage of different Canadian election nights. I watched 93,97,2000, 2004 on C-SPAN. I was trying to find 1993 coverage for years on YouTube with no luck.


2004 https://www.c-span.org/video/?182468-1/canadian-election-night-coverage

2000 https://www.c-span.org/video/?160814-1/canadian-election-returns

1997 https://www.c-span.org/video/?c3342938/1997-canadian-election

1993 https://www.c-span.org/video/?51860-1/canadian-election-special

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mileslunn
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« Reply #1086 on: October 04, 2017, 06:14:44 PM »

Alberta MLA Karen McPherson (Calgary-Mackay-Nose Hill) has left the NDP caucus to sit as an independent, citing dissatisfaction with increased polarization in the political system.

Interesting.  To be fair the riding pretty much always went PC prior to 2015 and still votes Conservative federally so it's not likely she would have been able to hold her riding unless the UCP messes up really badly.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #1087 on: October 04, 2017, 06:30:39 PM »

I was able to find some pretty rare footage of different Canadian election nights. I watched 93,97,2000, 2004 on C-SPAN. I was trying to find 1993 coverage for years on YouTube with no luck.


2004 https://www.c-span.org/video/?182468-1/canadian-election-night-coverage

2000 https://www.c-span.org/video/?160814-1/canadian-election-returns

1997 https://www.c-span.org/video/?c3342938/1997-canadian-election

1993 https://www.c-span.org/video/?51860-1/canadian-election-special



It's probably pretty embarrassing to admit, but I have some election returns (CBC, CTV) on video tape.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1088 on: October 10, 2017, 08:56:59 AM »

I'm in Calgary visiting my in laws. Some quick thoughts:

Roads: Excellent
Sprawl: Everywhere
Consumerism: Rampant
Scenery: Beautiful

Also, Nenshi seems to be winning the sign war.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1089 on: October 10, 2017, 10:50:29 AM »

I'm in Calgary visiting my in laws. Some quick thoughts:

Roads: Excellent
Sprawl: Everywhere
Consumerism: Rampant
Scenery: Beautiful

Also, Nenshi seems to be winning the sign war.

Polls suggest otherwise.  I was in High River for Thanksgiving and there Trudeau and Notley seemed universally hated mind you 75% voted Tory last federal election and 75% voted for either the PCs or Wildrose last provincial election no surprise.  Calgary will be interesting, but if Mainstreet Poll is to believed, a 17 point gap is a big one to overcome.
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Lachi
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« Reply #1090 on: October 10, 2017, 04:23:41 PM »

I'm in Calgary visiting my in laws. Some quick thoughts:

Roads: Excellent
Sprawl: Everywhere
Consumerism: Rampant
Scenery: Beautiful

Also, Nenshi seems to be winning the sign war.

Polls suggest otherwise.  I was in High River for Thanksgiving and there Trudeau and Notley seemed univrsally hated mind you 75% voted Tory last federal election and 75% voted for either the PCs or Wildrose last provincial election no surprise.  Calgary will be interesting, but if Mainstreet Poll is to believed, a 17 point gap is a big one to overcome.
uhh, NOT EVEN CLOSE to correct.
Federally, they won 59.5%, and in the provincial election, PC+WR won 52.03% (27.8+24.23, respectively)
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1091 on: October 10, 2017, 04:51:06 PM »

I'm in Calgary visiting my in laws. Some quick thoughts:

Roads: Excellent
Sprawl: Everywhere
Consumerism: Rampant
Scenery: Beautiful

Also, Nenshi seems to be winning the sign war.

Polls suggest otherwise.  I was in High River for Thanksgiving and there Trudeau and Notley seemed univrsally hated mind you 75% voted Tory last federal election and 75% voted for either the PCs or Wildrose last provincial election no surprise.  Calgary will be interesting, but if Mainstreet Poll is to believed, a 17 point gap is a big one to overcome.
uhh, NOT EVEN CLOSE to correct.
Federally, they won 59.5%, and in the provincial election, PC+WR won 52.03% (27.8+24.23, respectively)


High River isn't in Calgary.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1092 on: October 10, 2017, 04:55:24 PM »

Also to answer Miles, I agree that signs doesn't equal votes, but it may indicate Nenshi has a stronger organization, and/or his vote is more resilient than we may have otherwise thought. That said I still think he's going down.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1093 on: October 10, 2017, 10:15:53 PM »

I'm in Calgary visiting my in laws. Some quick thoughts:

Roads: Excellent
Sprawl: Everywhere
Consumerism: Rampant
Scenery: Beautiful

Also, Nenshi seems to be winning the sign war.

Polls suggest otherwise.  I was in High River for Thanksgiving and there Trudeau and Notley seemed univrsally hated mind you 75% voted Tory last federal election and 75% voted for either the PCs or Wildrose last provincial election no surprise.  Calgary will be interesting, but if Mainstreet Poll is to believed, a 17 point gap is a big one to overcome.
uhh, NOT EVEN CLOSE to correct.
Federally, they won 59.5%, and in the provincial election, PC+WR won 52.03% (27.8+24.23, respectively)


That was High River, not Calgary which like most small towns in Rural Alberta is staunchly conservative.
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« Reply #1094 on: October 11, 2017, 12:18:43 AM »

I was able to find some pretty rare footage of different Canadian election nights. I watched 93,97,2000, 2004 on C-SPAN. I was trying to find 1993 coverage for years on YouTube with no luck.


2004 https://www.c-span.org/video/?182468-1/canadian-election-night-coverage

2000 https://www.c-span.org/video/?160814-1/canadian-election-returns

1997 https://www.c-span.org/video/?c3342938/1997-canadian-election

1993 https://www.c-span.org/video/?51860-1/canadian-election-special



It's probably pretty embarrassing to admit, but I have some election returns (CBC, CTV) on video tape.

You should really consider uploading it somewhere.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #1095 on: October 11, 2017, 09:04:47 AM »

I was able to find some pretty rare footage of different Canadian election nights. I watched 93,97,2000, 2004 on C-SPAN. I was trying to find 1993 coverage for years on YouTube with no luck.


2004 https://www.c-span.org/video/?182468-1/canadian-election-night-coverage

2000 https://www.c-span.org/video/?160814-1/canadian-election-returns

1997 https://www.c-span.org/video/?c3342938/1997-canadian-election

1993 https://www.c-span.org/video/?51860-1/canadian-election-special



Good find. At 15:08 of the 2004 election, you can see the Marxist-Leninist party take the lead in a riding Cheesy

(that 'error' showed up in the official returns too, and was never corrected, but was obviously an error as the Liberal candidate won 0 votes in the poll, and it was actually one of those divided polls, so it won't show up on a map, as the results would've been added with the other parts of the poll)
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #1096 on: October 19, 2017, 12:14:33 AM »

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/18/world/canada/quebec-face-coverings-ban.html

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I'm curious about which parties voted for/against this measure... any ideas?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1097 on: October 19, 2017, 01:48:14 AM »

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/18/world/canada/quebec-face-coverings-ban.html

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I'm curious about which parties voted for/against this measure... any ideas?

I think Quebec Solidaire was the only one to vote against but could be wrong.  There was only one vote against while everyone else voted in favour.  The CAQ and PQ tend to play identity politics far more than the PLQ so you can pretty much bank on them supporting such a bill.
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Santander
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« Reply #1098 on: October 19, 2017, 09:34:30 AM »

Vive le Québec! Vive le Québec libre!
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1099 on: October 19, 2017, 11:55:47 AM »

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/18/world/canada/quebec-face-coverings-ban.html

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I'm curious about which parties voted for/against this measure... any ideas?

I think Quebec Solidaire was the only one to vote against but could be wrong.  There was only one vote against while everyone else voted in favour.  The CAQ and PQ tend to play identity politics far more than the PLQ so you can pretty much bank on them supporting such a bill.

If that's true, my top choice for Quebec 2018 will probably be... Quebec Solidaire!?

Truth is stranger than fiction.
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