Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

[Njall]

Alberta Party Leader Greg Clarkhas resigned as Leader in order to trigger a leadership race. It appears that the hope is that this leadership race will generate excitement around the Alberta Party, attracting new members and donors, in the wake of Kenney's election as UCP leader. Clark has said that he may run in this leadership race, but that he is undecided as of yet. He will, however, definitely be staying on as MLA for Calgary-Elbow, and will be running for re-election in 2019.

[DC Al Fine]

Alberta Party Leader Greg Clarkhas resigned as Leader in order to trigger a leadership race. It appears that the hope is that this leadership race will generate excitement around the Alberta Party, attracting new members and donors, in the wake of Kenney's election as UCP leader. Clark has said that he may run in this leadership race, but that he is undecided as of yet. He will, however, definitely be staying on as MLA for Calgary-Elbow, and will be running for re-election in 2019.

So he's triggering a leadership race, and (probably) running in it, not because he's in trouble, but because he wants to add members? That's kind of lame.

[Hatman 🍁]

Alberta Party Leader Greg Clarkhas resigned as Leader in order to trigger a leadership race. It appears that the hope is that this leadership race will generate excitement around the Alberta Party, attracting new members and donors, in the wake of Kenney's election as UCP leader. Clark has said that he may run in this leadership race, but that he is undecided as of yet. He will, however, definitely be staying on as MLA for Calgary-Elbow, and will be running for re-election in 2019.

So he's triggering a leadership race, and (probably) running in it, not because he's in trouble, but because he wants to add members? That's kind of lame.

Sounds like he's an attention whore.

[136or142]

Alberta Party Leader Greg Clarkhas resigned as Leader in order to trigger a leadership race. It appears that the hope is that this leadership race will generate excitement around the Alberta Party, attracting new members and donors, in the wake of Kenney's election as UCP leader. Clark has said that he may run in this leadership race, but that he is undecided as of yet. He will, however, definitely be staying on as MLA for Calgary-Elbow, and will be running for re-election in 2019.

So he's triggering a leadership race, and (probably) running in it, not because he's in trouble, but because he wants to add members? That's kind of lame.

Is this also part of the 'unite the center' movement?

[Hatman 🍁]

Alberta Party Leader Greg Clarkhas resigned as Leader in order to trigger a leadership race. It appears that the hope is that this leadership race will generate excitement around the Alberta Party, attracting new members and donors, in the wake of Kenney's election as UCP leader. Clark has said that he may run in this leadership race, but that he is undecided as of yet. He will, however, definitely be staying on as MLA for Calgary-Elbow, and will be running for re-election in 2019.

So he's triggering a leadership race, and (probably) running in it, not because he's in trouble, but because he wants to add members? That's kind of lame.

Is this also part of the 'unite the center' movement?

Can't see a political movement in Canada adopting that spelling.

[136or142]

Alberta Party Leader Greg Clarkhas resigned as Leader in order to trigger a leadership race. It appears that the hope is that this leadership race will generate excitement around the Alberta Party, attracting new members and donors, in the wake of Kenney's election as UCP leader. Clark has said that he may run in this leadership race, but that he is undecided as of yet. He will, however, definitely be staying on as MLA for Calgary-Elbow, and will be running for re-election in 2019.

So he's triggering a leadership race, and (probably) running in it, not because he's in trouble, but because he wants to add members? That's kind of lame.

Is this also part of the 'unite the center' movement?

Can't see a political movement in Canada adopting that spelling.

Now I don't speak any English, just American without tears.

[DC Al Fine]

Pictou East MLA and Tory finance critic Tim Houston is the first candidate to enter the NS PC leadership race.

[DC Al Fine]

NS NDP executives resign in protest over party leader Gary Burrill

[Pragmatic Conservative]

NDP narrowing the gap a bit in Alberta

Insights West
UCP 47%
NDP 33%
Liberal 10%
Alberta Party 7%

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Conservative MP Blake Richards expelled from house for "excessive heckling"

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/speaker-expels-tory-mp-heckling-1.4427036

[RogueBeaver]

PQ polling in the teens again per Leger, though IIRC need closer to 15% for a wipeout. SAD! Full result is 36/32/19/11.

[Hatman 🍁]

New CRA poll on PEI:

Lib 37 (-8)
PC 28 (+4)
Grn 25 (+7)
NDP 11 (-1)

[DC Al Fine]

Why is the NDP so historically (and currently) weak in the maritime provinces?

The groups that historically favour the NDP are very thin on the ground here. We have very little heavy industry, very few "new left" types, and no major ethnic minorities that might support the NDP.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://nypost.com/2017/12/08/bat-wielding-racist-screams-isis-at-family-speaking-spanish/

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This is disturbing at best...

[MaxQue]

Not surprising from the Ontario Bible Belt, alas.

[RogueBeaver]

Abella will probably be appointed Chief Justice.

[mileslunn]

Not surprising from the Ontario Bible Belt, alas.

Not sure I would call Southwestern Ontario the bible belt, that is more Central Ontario and Eastern Ontario although unlike in say southern New Brunswick, southern Manitoba, southern Alberta, and the Fraser Valley of BC, Ontario doesn't have a really strong bible belt the way those do.  Now yes Elgin-Middlesex-London is a fairly solid conservative seat, but that is probably more economic.  There is a feeling the Liberals are very Toronto centric so areas furthest removed from Toronto tend to go either Tory or NDP.  Heavily unionized areas like Windsor, Hamilton, and Northern Ontario more NDP while most rural Ontario ridings go Conservative.

[mileslunn]

While no NDP supporter, any of the NDP supporters here have any idea why the NDP is doing so poorly in the polls?  I would have thought Jagmeet Singh would have helped them or is perhaps with Trudeau moving to the left he has more or less squeezed out the NDP.  The Tories while not up or not down either and seem to be holding their vote despite the fact Andrew Scheer is not exactly someone that is overly appealing although he doesn't anger people the way Harper did either and to be fair most on the right hate Justin Trudeau so much I suspect they would go Tory no matter who was the leader.  Just curious on this. 

Also not only bad news for the NDP, but also Tories.  As we saw in the recent by-elections, the Tories got over 40% in 3 of the 4 yet only won one seat so tough for them to win without better splits.  Getting over 40% in 170 ridings will be a very long shot in 2019, but at least plausible if everything goes right whereas getting over 45% in 170 ridings is pretty much impossible unless you have a Mulroney type leader who can sweep Quebec which Scheer is not thus the dilemma for the Tories too.  In 2004, 2006, 2008, and 2011 Tories won more seats than seats they got over 40% whereas in 2015 they got over 40% in more ridings than they won thus my point about how weak NDP hurts them.  No more was this true than the 905 belt where the Tories got over 40% in most ridings in 2015 yet lost almost all of them.

[King of Kensington]

https://nypost.com/2017/12/08/bat-wielding-racist-screams-isis-at-family-speaking-spanish/

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This is disturbing at best...

Shockingly, the suspect is the great-grandson of Nathan Phillips, Toronto's first Jewish mayor elected in the 1950s.  He was known as the mayor of "all the people" and for promoting inclusion and tolerance.
 

[King of Kensington]

Not surprising from the Ontario Bible Belt, alas.

Not sure I would call Southwestern Ontario the bible belt, that is more Central Ontario and Eastern Ontario although unlike in say southern New Brunswick, southern Manitoba, southern Alberta, and the Fraser Valley of BC, Ontario doesn't have a really strong bible belt the way those do.  Now yes Elgin-Middlesex-London is a fairly solid conservative seat, but that is probably more economic.  There is a feeling the Liberals are very Toronto centric so areas furthest removed from Toronto tend to go either Tory or NDP.  Heavily unionized areas like Windsor, Hamilton, and Northern Ontario more NDP while most rural Ontario ridings go Conservative.

Ontario's most evangelical areas are in SW Ontario and the Niagara region.

[DC Al Fine]

Not surprising from the Ontario Bible Belt, alas.

Not sure I would call Southwestern Ontario the bible belt, that is more Central Ontario and Eastern Ontario although unlike in say southern New Brunswick, southern Manitoba, southern Alberta, and the Fraser Valley of BC, Ontario doesn't have a really strong bible belt the way those do.  Now yes Elgin-Middlesex-London is a fairly solid conservative seat, but that is probably more economic.  There is a feeling the Liberals are very Toronto centric so areas furthest removed from Toronto tend to go either Tory or NDP.  Heavily unionized areas like Windsor, Hamilton, and Northern Ontario more NDP while most rural Ontario ridings go Conservative.

Ontario's most evangelical areas are in SW Ontario and the Niagara region.

Huh? I knew that was the Dutch Calvinist belt, but they're a minority among Evangelicals. Didn't know that SW Ontario had high numbers of Baptists/Pentecostals.

[DC Al Fine]

Quick question: How many current fringe parties do you think would win seats if we switched to the Dutch system? (i.e. We know the major parties would break up and form new parties if we changed, but what about the current fringey types)

The Libertarians were already 2/3's of the way to a seat in 2015 despite only running 70 candidates, so I'm sure they'd get a couple seats. Christian Heritage didn't do well in 2015, but I'm sure they could tap into socons dissatisfied with the Tories if the system changed. Anyone else?

[Hatman 🍁]

The CHP and Libertarians would probably win seats; don't think anyone else would.

As for splits, I think this would be a more interesting question. Honestly, I think only the Conservatives would, but not right away. Some socialists in the NDP would probably form their own party too and would win a few seats.

[King of Kensington]

Huh? I knew that was the Dutch Calvinist belt, but they're a minority among Evangelicals. Didn't know that SW Ontario had high numbers of Baptists/Pentecostals.

Outside Atlantic Canada, evangelicals in Canada are largely Mennonite or Dutch, no?

[Vega]

Quick question: How many current fringe parties do you think would win seats if we switched to the Dutch system? (i.e. We know the major parties would break up and form new parties if we changed, but what about the current fringey types)

The Libertarians were already 2/3's of the way to a seat in 2015 despite only running 70 candidates, so I'm sure they'd get a couple seats. Christian Heritage didn't do well in 2015, but I'm sure they could tap into socons dissatisfied with the Tories if the system changed. Anyone else?

What specifically is the Dutch system?