Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

[136or142]

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Not a single one of the changes as per the defined regulations would have been bad for small businesses whatsoever, as only the already extremely profitable small businesses would have been subject to the tax changes. There were a handful of proposed regulations that according to the small business community might have been harmful because they were not precisely spelled out.

The arguments of how these small business tax changes would have hurt small business or Canada in general are definitely 'neo liberal' arguments:

1.Business people deserve extra tax advantages because they are 'job creators'

2.If business owners (not the businesses themselves) are taxed at normal rates they won't grow the economy is an argument which is the very definition of 'trickle down supply side economics.'

There are strong progressive criticisms of the Liberal tax changes. For example, the Liberal proposal would have resulted in a combined tax rate over 100% on the gain on sale of assets when winding down a company in some situations, until they fixed the wording on budget day.

Seems like the sort of thing the NDP could attack in good conscience. Besides, the proposals were a vaguely worded mess.

Of the three areas of proposed changes, two of them were clear.  These incorporated small business tax perks are not a new issue and have been getting larger as the small business tax rate has decreased.  The idea used to be to that an incorporated small business and an unincorporated sole proprietorship or partnership would end up paying roughly the same total tax, but that hasn't been the case for a while now.

I'm well aware of the rationale, that was always clear. The nitty gritty of the proposals was not.

Kevin Milligan, who was the economist behind many of the proposals disagrees with you
http://blogs.ubc.ca/kevinmilligan/2017/09/10/taxation-of-private-corporations-an-explainer-compendium/

Milligan likes his own proposal?! We'll gee whiz. Next you'll tell me that Trudeau is voting Liberal in 2019.

Milligans website doesn't change the fact that the proposal as originally written, produced some really weird results like my 100% tax example. Bizarre cases like that indicate the proposal wasn't well written.

All it indicates is that it's impossible to write legislation, especially tax legislation, that fits into every individual circumstance.  This is why the tax code is as long as it is.  I don't doubt that there were problems with some of the regulations, especially in the one area, but by and large the legislation and the accompanying regulations were as clear and as well thought out as possible pending consultations.

[mileslunn]

Looks like the budget and India trip aren't helping the liberals.  Not just Forum is showing the Tories ahead (I don't for a minute believe the Tories are at 46% nationally or leading in Quebec), but now Ipsos shows them ahead by 5 points, 38% to 33% and NDP at 21%.  I still think Trudeau is favoured to win in 2019, but it seems he has been having a lot of self inflicted wounds and is somewhat arrogant.  Usually arrogance is a party's downfall so the liberals should probably stop assuming they have the next election in the bag and instead assume they are the underdog if not.  Complacency and arrogance are usually party's downfalls.

[RogueBeaver]

SK: Meili won the Dipper leadership.

[Njall]

Former Alberta Opposition Leader Brian Jean has resigned his seat in the legislature.

[OSR stands with Israel]

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Not a single one of the changes as per the defined regulations would have been bad for small businesses whatsoever, as only the already extremely profitable small businesses would have been subject to the tax changes. There were a handful of proposed regulations that according to the small business community might have been harmful because they were not precisely spelled out.

The arguments of how these small business tax changes would have hurt small business or Canada in general are definitely 'neo liberal' arguments:

1.Business people deserve extra tax advantages because they are 'job creators'

2.If business owners (not the businesses themselves) are taxed at normal rates they won't grow the economy is an argument which is the very definition of 'trickle down supply side economics.'

Small Businesses are the job creators and should be taxed at less than the Income Rate

[136or142]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not a single one of the changes as per the defined regulations would have been bad for small businesses whatsoever, as only the already extremely profitable small businesses would have been subject to the tax changes. There were a handful of proposed regulations that according to the small business community might have been harmful because they were not precisely spelled out.

The arguments of how these small business tax changes would have hurt small business or Canada in general are definitely 'neo liberal' arguments:

1.Business people deserve extra tax advantages because they are 'job creators'

2.If business owners (not the businesses themselves) are taxed at normal rates they won't grow the economy is an argument which is the very definition of 'trickle down supply side economics.'

Small Businesses are the job creators and should be taxed at less than the Income Rate

There is no shortage of people who want to be 'job creators.'  By far the bigger problem is people who want to be 'job creators' because they are enticed by the lower taxation but don't otherwise have the temperament or skills to own a business than any problem with a lack of would be 'job creators.'

[RogueBeaver]

In non-PCPO news, Trost has lost renomination.

[DC Al Fine]

In non-PCPO news, Trost has lost renomination.

Story time: during the Tory leadership race, some friends and I were trying to decide which socon to first preference, so we decided to ask the candidates some questions at an event. Lemieux when pressed, admitted that he was running to give socons someone to vote for without reservations, and to make sure the new leader couldn't ignore us. Trost on the other hand really seemed to believe that he could pull off a victory.

I wonder if his penchant for overconfidence played a role in his downfall?

[136or142]

In non-PCPO news, Trost has lost renomination.

Story time: during the Tory leadership race, some friends and I were trying to decide which socon to first preference, so we decided to ask the candidates some questions at an event. Lemieux when pressed, admitted that he was running to give socons someone to vote for without reservations, and to make sure the new leader couldn't ignore us. Trost on the other hand really seemed to believe that he could pull off a victory.

I wonder if his penchant for overconfidence played a role in his downfall?

https://twitter.com/yknot05/status/972621238513184768

[TheSaint250]

I can't find it now, but there was a poll or two released after the PC leadership results showing the NDP surpassing the Liberals and PC dropping down into the 30s.

[DC Al Fine]

Leger has released a federal poll pegging the Bloc at 12% in Quebec. Guess 2015 was their last hurrah.

[Poirot]

Leger has released a federal poll pegging the Bloc at 12% in Quebec. Guess 2015 was their last hurrah.

That poll also has questions about the Bloc.
http://leger360.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/RapportPolitiqueF%C3%A9d%C3%A9ralMars2018_FINAL.pdf

Bloc MP's role in Ottawa should mostly be defends Quebec interests (76%); 8% promote sovereignty. Among Bloc voters, in this poll about 40 people,  it's 69% to 31%.

52% think Ouellet should resign, 15% stay. Among the remaining Bloc voters subgroup it's split, 37% stay, 36% resign.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Leger has released a federal poll pegging the Bloc at 12% in Quebec. Guess 2015 was their last hurrah.

That poll also has questions about the Bloc.
http://leger360.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/RapportPolitiqueF%C3%A9d%C3%A9ralMars2018_FINAL.pdf

Bloc MP's role in Ottawa should mostly be defends Quebec interests (76%); 8% promote sovereignty. Among Bloc voters, in this poll about 40 people,  it's 69% to 31%.

52% think Ouellet should resign, 15% stay. Among the remaining Bloc voters subgroup it's split, 37% stay, 36% resign.

Provincial numbers are a bit off on that poll. Greens are way too low in BC.

[King of Kensington]

Re: Jagmeet Singh, JT's India trip etc., how does this impact diaspora poltiics and voting patterns?  Do the Tories basically give up on appealing to much of the Sikh community at all and just become the "pro-Modi" party and focus on Hindus? How do the Liberals balance taking on Singh's "weakness on Khalistani terrorism" without alienating their own sizable Sikh vote?  

[MAINEiac4434]

I do think it’s kind of interesting that in 20 years the Quebec sovereignty went from the precipice of victory to basically completely dead.

Who even are the souveranistes anymore?

[DC Al Fine]

I do think it’s kind of interesting that in 20 years the Quebec sovereignty went from the precipice of victory to basically completely dead.

Who even are the souveranistes anymore?

Boomers mostly.

[DC Al Fine]

Ouellet has agreed to a confidence vote on her leadership.

[mileslunn]

Two new Polls out today and neither good for Trudeau

Angus Reid

Cons 40%
Libs 30%
NDP 19%

Nanos (four week rolling so Tories might have pulled ahead but narrowest margin since 2015 election nonetheless)

Libs 35.9%
Cons 34.8%
NDP 18.5%

Also on best PM, party power index, and leadership approval Liberals at record low so far and Tories at high point.  Not saying the Liberals are out of it, they still have lots of time to recover, but probably might want to change tactics a bit.  It seems not just federally but provincially in Ontario, there is a goal of who can out left each other between the Liberals and NDP forgetting it is the centre not left where elections are usually won.  Millennials may want to move leftward, but Gen Xers, Boomers, and Silent generation don't.  Otherwise it appears Red Tory and Blue Liberal support is leaking away to the Tories.  Off course they may find Scheer and/or Doug Ford too extreme, but the fact it is their right flank not left flank deserting them suggests they might want to pay a bit more attention to it.

[DC Al Fine]

Two new Polls out today and neither good for Trudeau

Angus Reid

Cons 40%
Libs 30%
NDP 19%

What I found interesting about that poll is that they had approval ratings of various PM's at equivalent points in their mandates. Apparently Harper had a better approval rating at this stage, which I found surprising.

Also on best PM, party power index, and leadership approval Liberals at record low so far and Tories at high point.  Not saying the Liberals are out of it, they still have lots of time to recover, but probably might want to change tactics a bit.  It seems not just federally but provincially in Ontario, there is a goal of who can out left each other between the Liberals and NDP forgetting it is the centre not left where elections are usually won.  Millennials may want to move leftward, but Gen Xers, Boomers, and Silent generation don't.  Otherwise it appears Red Tory and Blue Liberal support is leaking away to the Tories.  Off course they may find Scheer and/or Doug Ford too extreme, but the fact it is their right flank not left flank deserting them suggests they might want to pay a bit more attention to it.

Well, some of that centre to centre right support, will drift back when the SCARY SCHEER attack ads start, but you're right that Trudeau will need to shore up that flank at some point.

It's been quite a while since Trudeau has said anything appealing to me. Now obviously I'm a hardcore socon and will never vote Liberal, but I'm in their universe economically, and I still haven't liked anything I've heard in a long time. I don't think that's necessarily the case for our resident NDP voters.

I'd also suggest that Trudeau's India debacle has disproportionately impacted his right flank. The sort of people who like Paul Martin, Scott Brison etc seem very concerned with "seriousness" and that trip really impacted Trudeau's credibility as a "serious" politician.

[mileslunn]

Right now progressives clearly dominate most levels of government, but will be interesting if a rightward shift is happening.  Both Doug Ford in Ontario and Jason Kenney in Alberta are well to the right of centre and have large leads in the polls so will be interesting what affect that has on national relations and conservatism should both win.  Also Quebec could swing rightward too with the CAQ ahead in most polls.

I do wonder though if Kenney, Ford, and Legault win in each of their provinces, that will help Trudeau since people will want someone on the left to balance the right wing dominance at the provincial level from the Rockies to the Atlantic or does it really matter?

[EPG]

With the greatest of respect to Ontarian voters, it seems that the winning party in their provincial elections can be strongly predicted based on the identity of the federal opposition parties.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ontarians tend to vote for the opposite party that is in power federally. 2003 & 2007 are the only recent exceptions.

[mileslunn]

Ontarians tend to vote for the opposite party that is in power federally. 2003 & 2007 are the only recent exceptions.

You mean 2015, not 2007 as then we had a federal Conservative government.

[mileslunn]

More bad news for the Trudeau government https://globalnews.ca/news/4104673/trudeau-liberals-approval-rating-down/ .

Cons 38%
Lib 31%
NDP 23%

NDP seems a bit on the high side compared to others, but the trend seems to show the past few weeks have not been a good one for the Trudeau government.  Off course there is still plenty of time to recover before the election and of the Conservative support only 30-33% could be described as solid, the additional 5-7% are dissatisfied Liberals parking their votes there and depending on how things go between now and the next election may stay there or return to the Liberals.  But the Liberals need to take this seriously and make changes if they want to win them back.  It can easily be done, but will they or not is the question.  Also Nanos has a poll out tonight so interesting if the Liberals will still be in the lead or not.  If the Tories do poll ahead, it will be the first time in 2.5 years they have done so and if they break the 35% mark, that will be the first time since 2012 they have done that.

[mileslunn]

Nanos has the Liberals still slightly ahead so whichever one is right seems support is soft and we would probably get a minority government now, but a lot can and will change in the next 18 months.

Libs 38.1%
Cons 34.7%
NDP16.3%