Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

[MAINEiac4434]

He hasn’t stepped in it over major issues? What? He got into a civil war with his caucus over abortion, feuds daily with a successful premier from a provincial arm of his party over pipelines, and was seen by some as being too earnest when it came to his strategy for dealing with allegations of abuse/harassment against members of his party.

I won’t rip him to shreds, but there’s no way he could be called a success. Not only has he been an ineffective and hollow spokesperson, but his decision to not immediately seek a seat has since proven to be a huge blunder. He has very little credibility among his own caucus, has not built important intra-party relationships, and has now accumulated such a stink of failure that there’s very little he can do to get out from under it even if he manages to do everything perfectly up to the election. It’s not fair, but it’s the reality. He had lots of chances.

So I maintain that the party made a huge mistake turfing and disrespecting Mulcair. He did not meet expectations in 2015, I’ll grant that. But people saw him and knew he was tough and capable. A bit of course correction for 2019 and he could have been the perfect counterpoint to Trudeau.

Hot, unprovable take: if Mulcair was still leader the party would be polling exactly where it is right now.

But I found Tom Mulcair to be the exact wrong person to lead the party after Layton's death and never quite forgave him for running to the center in 2015, so...

[RogueBeaver]

Bill Casey retiring next year.

I agree with maineiac that Mulcair or an alternate NDP leader wouldn't be doing much better.

[DC Al Fine]

Bill Casey retiring next year.

Casey was like a Greek god in Cumberland-Colchester. Tories might actually pick up an NS next year.

[mileslunn]

Bill Casey retiring next year.

I agree with maineiac that Mulcair or an alternate NDP leader wouldn't be doing much better.

Considering he will be 76, not really surprised.  Interestingly enough with him not running, the Tories might have a shot at this seat as he was popular enough they didn't stand a chance against him, but without him this area is more conservative than most of Nova Scotia, mind you also Red Tory so a lot will depend if the party moves towards the centre or moves further to the right.

[Poirot]

And what's with the defeatist attitude about Trudeau and the next election? Even if it's an uphill battle, at the very least the Conservative Party could reduce the Liberals to a minority which would pave the way for a victory in the next vote. But as it stands, there's the real chance the Trudeau Liberals would win 200+ seats with just 37% of the national vote. Jean Chretien would be proud.

I wouldn't call it defeatist. The Liberal lead has declined to about 4% from 8% in the 2015 election and 15-20% earlier in Trudeau's mandate. That's not A+ material, but it isn't disastrous, especially against a popular first term PM. In fact I'd say we'd be in the minority territory you mentioned if it weren't for the NDP and Bloc pooping the bed in Quebec... but then that's not Scheer's fault is it.

Eh, it kind of is. At least insofar as he has been utterly incapable of taking advantage of the NDP/Bloc implosions. A more charismatic or intellectually forceful leader might have been able to make some intervention to shift people's perceptions, or at least capture their attention and help him redefine his image.
[/quote]

The Conservatives were the beneficiary of other parties implosion. They won the Chicoutimi by- election and positioned as the only government alternative to Trudeau in polling over 20% in Quebec. Maybe Bernier will fraction the vote and jeopardize their Quebec seats but the Conservatives were working on a plan to male some gains with other parties trouble. It's not about Scheermania but it's still about leadership, choosing the people to work for you and people willing to support you or run for you.

I thought that firing Mulcair was to get a better leader to get better results. It doesn't seem to be happening for now. You get rid of the party's figurehead in Quebec if you figure you will compensate with more in other regions. Ontario has more seats so it can makes sense if the leader can deliver. Singh might have a problem with the transition to federal politics, not being from the caucus and not being always aware of the party policies. It can be tough for leaders of third place parties, the media don't talk about you much (unless you are Trudeau).   

[DC Al Fine]

Maxime Bernier has admitted that he registered "People's Party  of Canada" with Elections Canada but he's also considering "Citizen's Party". Guess were getting a lame generic name

[DC Al Fine]

And its People's Party

[Pragmatic Conservative]

And its People's Party

Will the party aim to run candidates outside of Quebec or is this just a Quebec only party?

[DC Al Fine]

And its People's Party

Will the party aim to run candidates outside of Quebec or is this just a Quebec only party?

He's aiming to go national

[Hatman 🍁]

And its People's Party

Will the party aim to run candidates outside of Quebec or is this just a Quebec only party?

All 338 ridings.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

And its People's Party

Will the party aim to run candidates outside of Quebec or is this just a Quebec only party?

All 338 ridings.

oof that's going to make it tough for the Conservatives to win. I could even see them taking a net loss in seats in 2015. I wonder though what % Peoples will take I imagine 8-10% (I don't think their is a huge market for a libertarian style party in Canada but will see.)

Also outside of Beauce what do you think the most likley seat Peoples would win?

[136or142]

And its People's Party

Will the party aim to run candidates outside of Quebec or is this just a Quebec only party?

All 338 ridings.

oof that's going to make it tough for the Conservatives to win. I could even see them taking a net loss in seats in 2015. I wonder though what % Peoples will take I imagine 8-10% (I don't think their is a huge market for a libertarian style party in Canada but will see.)

Also outside of Beauce what do you think the most likley seat Peoples would win?

According to Craig Oliver (about the only liberal national media commentator around) Maxime Bernier's party could do very well in and around Quebec City: right wing populist but pro free trade.

Based on that, there may be parts of Alberta where the Weekend at Bernier's Party could do well as well, but I don't know if Bernier could establish himself well enough in a year's time to win any seats in Alberta.

The analogy made by some with Preston Manning and the Reform Party regarding the 1988 election really does not hold water though.  The 1988 election ended up as a referendum on free trade and many Western conservatives held their noses to vote Progressive Conservative.  The leading western conservative publication at the time (Western Report or Alberta Report published by the noxious Byfield family) urged conservatives to hold their nose and vote Progressive Conservative.

Of course, byelections are easy to vote against a government with a solid majority, but I think it's fairly instructive that only a few months after the 1988 election, Deborah Gray won a landslide victory for the Reform Party in Alberta.

[mileslunn]

Actually Rural Alberta is one area where Conservative support is so strong a split would be harmless as one of the two parties would win.  On the other hand could be bad news in Calgary and especially Edmonton if it gets any traction.  Whether it does or not is tough to say.  I tend to think it won't make much difference as most Conservatives hate Trudeau with a passion so the base will coalesce behind whichever party is most likely to defeat them.  Where things could get interesting is can he pull away some swing voters who dislike both the Liberals and Tories.  While much of that group is not libertarian per se, some might who find Liberals too left wing and Tories too right wing vote for him as a protest vote.

Also wondering if some Conservatives wish Trudeau kept his election promise on electoral reform as with PR a split would actually be in the Tories' benefit since whenever you merge two parties you never get the sum of both.  True it is unlikely they would get over 50% although if say Michael Chong split off and formed his own more moderate one it might be plausible of the three parties albeit still a stretch.

[136or142]

Actually Rural Alberta is one area where Conservative support is so strong a split would be harmless as one of the two parties would win.  On the other hand could be bad news in Calgary and especially Edmonton if it gets any traction.  Whether it does or not is tough to say.  I tend to think it won't make much difference as most Conservatives hate Trudeau with a passion so the base will coalesce behind whichever party is most likely to defeat them.  Where things could get interesting is can he pull away some swing voters who dislike both the Liberals and Tories.  While much of that group is not libertarian per se, some might who find Liberals too left wing and Tories too right wing vote for him as a protest vote.

Also wondering if some Conservatives wish Trudeau kept his election promise on electoral reform as with PR a split would actually be in the Tories' benefit since whenever you merge two parties you never get the sum of both.  True it is unlikely they would get over 50% although if say Michael Chong split off and formed his own more moderate one it might be plausible of the three parties albeit still a stretch.

Yes. In referring to the late 80s with that though, I don't think strategic voting was as well understood, and so had Alberta Report/Western Report written something like 'these are the ridings where it's safe to vote Reform, but in these ridings you should stick to voting P.C', it probably would have been confusing.

[Hatman 🍁]

And its People's Party

Will the party aim to run candidates outside of Quebec or is this just a Quebec only party?

All 338 ridings.

oof that's going to make it tough for the Conservatives to win. I could even see them taking a net loss in seats in 2015. I wonder though what % Peoples will take I imagine 8-10% (I don't think their is a huge market for a libertarian style party in Canada but will see.)

Also outside of Beauce what do you think the most likley seat Peoples would win?

According to Craig Oliver (about the only liberal national media commentator around) Maxime Bernier's party could do very well in and around Quebec City: right wing populist but pro free trade.

Ralliement créditiste 2.0 ?

[136or142]

And its People's Party

Will the party aim to run candidates outside of Quebec or is this just a Quebec only party?

All 338 ridings.

oof that's going to make it tough for the Conservatives to win. I could even see them taking a net loss in seats in 2015. I wonder though what % Peoples will take I imagine 8-10% (I don't think their is a huge market for a libertarian style party in Canada but will see.)

Also outside of Beauce what do you think the most likley seat Peoples would win?

According to Craig Oliver (about the only liberal national media commentator around) Maxime Bernier's party could do very well in and around Quebec City: right wing populist but pro free trade.

Ralliement créditiste 2.0 ?

Weren't they extreme social conservatives though?  Bernier for all his 'too much diversity' is mainly a libertarian.  Bernier's non racist concerns over immigration might also play well in places where there are many non racists who are unhappy with the negative effects of large amounts of immigration: traffic jams, reduced public services...  So, he might have some popularity in the Lower Mainland and populist areas of Toronto like Scarborough, maybe some parts of the GTA as well.

In the case of the Lower Mainland there are a fair number of people who go to Point Roberts, Washington to pay lower prices for dairy products.  And this maybe compounded by the dislike of the monopoly taxi cartel here in British Columbia as well.

Again, I doubt it would be enough support to actually win a seat even with 4 or 5 way vote splits in the Lower Mainland anyway, don't know enough about Scarborough or the GTA.

[Hatman 🍁]

I know. I meant more in terms of what the electoral map could look like, based on Craig Oliver's comments. That's a big *if* though; assuming Quebec conservatives align more with Bernier's politics. The leadership election proved that the Tory base in Quebec is not that libertarian, but perhaps the voters are?

[2952-0-0]

I know. I meant more in terms of what the electoral map could look like, based on Craig Oliver's comments. That's a big *if* though; assuming Quebec conservatives align more with Bernier's politics. The leadership election proved that the Tory base in Quebec is not that libertarian, but perhaps the voters are?

The Tory base, or the party membership which included dairy farmers who were convinced by Scheer to sign up?

[DC Al Fine]

I know. I meant more in terms of what the electoral map could look like, based on Craig Oliver's comments. That's a big *if* though; assuming Quebec conservatives align more with Bernier's politics. The leadership election proved that the Tory base in Quebec is not that libertarian, but perhaps the voters are?

Relative to Quebec voters, sure. Relative to Anglo CPC voters, hell no.

I know. I meant more in terms of what the electoral map could look like, based on Craig Oliver's comments. That's a big *if* though; assuming Quebec conservatives align more with Bernier's politics. The leadership election proved that the Tory base in Quebec is not that libertarian, but perhaps the voters are?

The Tory base, or the party membership which included dairy farmers who were convinced by Scheer to sign up?

If we ignore the rotten boroughs and just look at Quebec ridings were the Tories either won or did pretty well last time (and therefore have some sort of base and organization on the ground), Bernier ran up the score in Quebec City, but lost in  rural places.

IMO he hasn't really figured out whether his party is going to be a free marketeer or a right wing populist. If the former, I don't see him having much of an impact outside of Quebec City, Beauce and maybe the better off bits of Calgary. If the latter, he has a much bigger market for his ideas, especially in Quebec.

None of the major parties seem to be a great fit for the current tone of Quebec politics. The Liberals and NDP are too federalist and too pro-multicultural. The Bloc is too nationalist,  and the Tories are too... Tory. If Bernier plays his cards right, and that's a big if, he could  make some noise there.

[JoeyOCanada]

I fear that the People's Party is gonna split the vote and cause a Trudeau reelection...

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

Go Mad Max!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFdolEltCgs

[mileslunn]

I fear that the People's Party is gonna split the vote and cause a Trudeau reelection...

I don't think it will have much impact as unlike the 90s, the Conservative base hates Trudeau with a passion, whereas they didn't loathe Chretien to the same degree they loathe Trudeau so they will coalesce behind whichever is stronger, almost certainly the Conservatives.  The Conservatives are more likely to lose due to inability to appeal to centrist swing voters not split on the right.  The bigger danger of Maxime Bernier's new party, is the Tories will move rightward to prevent a split and this will make them unacceptable to middle of the road swing voters thus hurting their chances of winning.  Never mind for Trudeau, Trump and Ford and likely Kenney by 2019 is a perfect trio Trudeau can whip the Tories with and claim voting Tory means you get what those three offer. 

[EPG]

Sorry, why exactly is this a phenomenon? Is Andrew Scheer too, what, moderate? Surely not. Or just not an inspiring leader?

[RogueBeaver]

Grit backbencher crosses the floor to the Tories.

[King of Kensington]

She is from York Region, which is trending Conservative relative to the rest of the GTA.  She only won narrowly in the big red wave.