Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Is Pharmacare the next big policy goal, assuming the Liberals win a second term? Pharmacare has around 90% support nationally, it must have very high approval ratings even among Conservatives. I have always found it weird that we have had universal healthcare for the last 50 years, but no Pharmacare.

[DC Al Fine]

Nanos is prompting for the People's Party. Only has them at 1.3%

[RogueBeaver]

Feds will announce details of their carbon tax mandate tomorrow.

[Poirot]

Is Pharmacare the next big policy goal, assuming the Liberals win a second term? Pharmacare has around 90% support nationally, it must have very high approval ratings even among Conservatives. I have always found it weird that we have had universal healthcare for the last 50 years, but no Pharmacare.

Would Ottawa pay for it all or send the bill to provinces. I'm curious how it would work, who would decide what drugs are on the drug insured list. For Quebec, would it be a better insurance plan than the public drug insurance plan or it keeps the same plan but Ottawa sends money for it (or part of it).

[Poirot]

Nanos is prompting for the People's Party. Only has them at 1.3%

I imagine growth will depend how much media gives them coverage, maybe these days you can get around that with social media.

If they are at 1 or 2% in polls Bernier might not be invited to particiapte in debates and great exposure that comes with it. He needs big numbers to force his way in debates.

[RogueBeaver]

In addition to the 5 Quebecers regularly mentioned in French media, Cullen, Rankin and Masse are mulling retirement.

https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/1055253519320604672

[DC Al Fine]

It's not official yet, but Tim Houston nearly won on the first ballot and the runner up Cecil Clarke has conceded. Houston will be the next leader of the NS Tories.

[Hatman 🍁]

In addition to the 5 Quebecers regularly mentioned in French media, Cullen, Rankin and Masse are mulling retirement.

https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/1055253519320604672

I was hoping Yvan Baker's political career would be dead. His private member's bill attempting to ban texting and crossing the street was ludicrous.

[DC Al Fine]

NS PC leadership results

Tim Houston (MLA Pictou East): 49%
Cecil Clarke (Mayor of Cape Breton, former cabinet minister): 27%
John Lohr (MLA Kings North): 14%
Elizabeth Smith McCrossin (MLA Cumberland North): 8%
Julie Chiassion (some rando): 2%

The party used the same system as federally. No detailed results by riding are out as far as I know.

[Hatman 🍁]

So no second ballot, because Clarke dropped out? Makes sense, 49% is a guaranteed win.

Do you think Houston will take the party back to the right?

[DC Al Fine]

So no second ballot, because Clarke dropped out? Makes sense, 49% is a guaranteed win.

Correct

Do you think Houston will take the party back to the right?

Fiscally yes, socially he's as red as Baillie was.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hope this passes: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/doug-ford-teachers-math-test-ontario-1.4878114

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Heaven forbid students practice experimenting, problem-solving, and thinking critically to build computational math skills/number sense.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/NEWSTALK1010/status/1058485008875352065

[RogueBeaver]

Bernard Landry has died at 81.

[RogueBeaver]

The Clement scandal gets worse.

[DC Al Fine]

The Clement scandal gets worse.

Oh boy

[mileslunn]

Apparently Maxime Bernier's People's party has 33,000 members and is able to draw large crowds.  I am skeptical the party will go very far.  People may be split on whether we should have less or more government, but I don't think libertarianism is very popular.  Most seem to see it as only favouring the very rich thus making it a very tough sell.  As such I don't see his PPC going very far, but even if it only got 5-10% of the popular vote, that could cost the Tories a whole wack of seats thus guaranteeing an even bigger Liberal majority.  Also PPC gaining will probably force the Tories to move rightwards thus making it tougher for them to win over the Liberal-Tory swing votes they need to win.  On the other hand if Bernier attracts enough kookie candidates, they might end up being like the BC Conservatives or if they get little media attention could end up being like the Trilium Party in Ontario.  Both were expected to cause headaches for the Ontario PCs and BC Liberals yet neither materialized.

Mainstreet is now doing their quarterly provincial polls.  So far mixed results.

BC: Referendum like with insights West looks to be a nail biter so depends heavily on turnout.  Older voters generally favour FTFP and are more likely to vote, but those who want to change to PR are more passionate about it thus might be more inclined to vote.  BC Liberals have a very narrow lead, but considering BC Conservative support it is likely under FTFP things are looking good for the BC Liberals.  Only thing that might help the NDP is John Horgan is more popular than Andrew Wilkinson so numbers could easily move.  If PR goes through then slight advantage NDP and NDP + Greens are just over 50%, but no matter who wins neither side has a lock.  Besides I expect the government to last until 2021 so lots can change.

Alberta:  As mentioned elsewhere, big UCP lead so they are heavy favourites and unless they screw up badly, will likely win next year.

Ontario: Unlike other polls, PCs still have a strong lead although with no election until 2022, polls are meaningless at this point.

New Brunswick - MQO: It appears recent drama has helped the Greens dramatically, helped the PCs slightly, while hurt the Liberals and had no impact on People's Alliance.

PEI: Both polls show a tight three way race so anyone's game.

Nova Scotia - MQO: Liberals have slight lead, but with an election not until 2021 still plenty of time for things to change.

Newfoundland & Labrador: Liberals in lead so in good shape to win re-election next year, but PCs not totally out of it, but have an uphill battle.  Will likely form a stronger opposition, but need to up their game to win outright. 

Still waiting to see what is in store in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Quebec.  My guess is Saskatchewan Party and Manitoba PCs are in the lead, but not as big as what they got in 2016, but we shall see.  Quebec just had their election so will be interesting to see if Legault gets any bounce here.

[DC Al Fine]

The Tories just picked a new leader in NS, so that likely explains the Liberals drop.

[mileslunn]

Interestingly enough Campaign research in Ontario has 34% PC, 32% Liberal, and 25% NDP so more in line with Innovative than Mainstreet research.  Only caveat I have with the poll is over half sampled are in the 416 although I suspect they weight it.  In 416 it is 37% Liberal to 30% PC which seems plausible, but in 905 belt it is 38% PC to 32% Liberal while rest of Ontario 40% PC, 27% NDP, and 21% Liberal so doesn't quite seem to add up since 416 is under 25% of the population so using 25% in 416, 25% in 905 and 50% elsewhere I get 37% PC and 28% Liberal, but whichever one you want to believe it is clear Ford is not enjoying a honeymoon and more dislike him than like while the Liberals with Wynne gone are rebounding, it is just a question of how much while NDP doesn't seem to benefitting.  On the minimum wage hike, both show similar numbers with a slim majority opposing his decision to cancel the hike to $15/hour, but still over 40% supporting it.  Either way with no election until 2022, I suspect you will get a fair bit of variation.  Either way all post election polls show the PCs ahead but generally below what they got on e-day, Liberals rebounding, and NDP falling a bit.  With the government less than six months old, not a very good start, but Ford was always a very polarizing figure so hard to say if numbers will shift or perhaps he is simply the type you either love (a minority around 35%) or hate (around 60%).

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/andriactv/status/1066828439318130692

https://twitter.com/MercedesGlobal/status/1066859296938434567

https://twitter.com/MercedesGlobal/status/1066870870466023424

[DC Al Fine]

Ah yikes, that's huge

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

That's one of my big fears about the electric car transition: overall you have far less moving parts in an electric car, so any region dependent on automative industry Jobs is going to be severely hurt by the switchover.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/RosieBarton/status/1069396580611051521

[136or142]

Seems like the Liberals have backed down on the summer grant program attestation nonsense. 

Fairly obvious compromise: funding can no longer go to programs that are 'anti charter' i.e to a program funding anti abortion activities, but the organizations can continue these programs by themselves.  There will be no attestation either, but Service Canada civil servants will check out the grant seeking programs to ensure they don't violate the new rules.

Seems most people are happy with this. 

https://globalnews.ca/news/4732603/canada-summer-jobs-attestation-change/