Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

[Njall]

Excellent: Elections Alberta may deregister the Progressives.

I'm told that part of the article was written in error; we have till Monday at 4:30 to file, and I'm told that all the documentation will be in.

[Njall]

Alberta PC MLA and former Cabinet Minister Manmeet Bhullar was killed tonight when he stopped to help a stranded motorist on the highway

[Njall]

Unite the Right in Alberta?

Or maybe not?

[Njall]

Unite the Right in Alberta?

Or maybe not?

In other new: new Alberta poll from ThinkHQ (change from Nov. 2015 in brackets)

Wildrose: 33% (+1)
NDP: 29% (-3)
PC: 25% (+2)
Liberal: 8% (n/c)
Alberta Party: 3% (-1)

[Njall]

Is all this anger over a farm safety bill? Topkek

Apparently some rednecks think it is LITERALLY genocide.

Essentially, family farmers were concerned that the implementation of the rules would threaten the viability of their farms, and they were highly annoyed by the lack of consultation from the government and the government's refusal to delay passing the bill until after the legislature's winter break.  Then the Wildrose decided to take that simmering anger in the rural areas and whip it up into a frenzy.

[Njall]

New Alberta provincial poll from Mainstreet:

Decided voters:
WRP: 33%
PC: 31%
NDP: 27%
ALP: 5%
AP: 4%

[Njall]

New Alberta provincial poll from Mainstreet:

Decided voters:
WRP: 33%
PC: 31%
NDP: 27%
ALP: 5%
AP: 4%

What chances do the NDP have to get re-elected with these numbers?

Probably not great,  especially as their support is concentrated in the Edmonton region, but given that the next Alberta election isn't for a little more than three years, I'd say your question is a little premature.

^Pretty much that.  The poll still shows the NDP at nearly 50% in Edmonton, so they could still easily win 18-25 seats in the greater Edmonton areas, but beyond that, their prospects would be pretty bleak.   

[Njall]

Alberta's right will have to be unified the hard way. Hopefully Jean's up for that.

I'm not sure why that gentleman from Cardston-Taber-Warner feels so strongly about the issue.  No to belittle his views, of course, but even in 2015, the non-PC/WRP vote in that riding was only 22.7%.  I would argue that keeping the parties separate is better for rural Alberta, since the prospect of competition would prevent the residents from being taken for granted like they would be under a theoretical united party.

In all seriousness though, I have a hard time seeing the parties coming together anytime soon.  A strong majority of PC members that I know oppose the idea of a merger.

[Njall]

Alberta PCs held their first AGM since the 2015 election yesterday.  78% voted in favour of holding an election to find a permanent leader.  Also of note, the party will be returning to the delegated convention style of leadership election.

[Njall]

In case anyone hasn't been paying attention to Alberta politics over the past 10 days, the Wildrose Party has not been having a fun time:

Here's a timeline of Derek Fildebrandt's odd and brief suspension from the Wildrose caucus.

CBC analysis of the fallout.

The same week, a group of Wildrose MLAs had to apologize for a blog post comparing the Alberta carbon tax to the Ukrainian Genocide.

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In slightly related news, the Alberta PCs will choose a new leader in Spring 2017.

[Njall]

More Wildrose Party shenanigans: A constituency association passes a resolution calling for a review of Brian Jean's leadership at the next AGM.

Alberta NDP convention this weekend in Calgary.  According to Twitter, a resolution will be debated about whether the ABNDP should disaffiliate from the national party.

[Njall]

I posted this in OT, but you guys might like this too:

Which Millennial Tribe are you in?
 (geared towards Canadians, but could probably apply outside Canada too)

http://environicsresearch.com/insights/meet-millennials/

After taking the quiz, apparently I'm a "Critical Counterculturalist" (I don't think it's the best description of me, but whatever, it was a fun personality quiz)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The others are "Engaged Idealists," "New Traditionalists," "Bros and Brittanys," "Lone Wolves," and "Diverse Strivers."

I got the same result - that was an interesting quiz.

[Njall]

Didn't see it posted anywhere yet, so here's the latest Alberta poll from Mainstreet.

Topline numbers are 38/29/23/5/5

Edmonton: 43/26/21/5/4
Calgary: 38/26/22/7/7
Rest of Alberta: 48/27/16/4/4


The federal political temperature in Alberta is also taken. The topline results for that are 67/24/6/4

Edmonton: 48/39/9/4
Calgary: 64/26/5/4
Rest of Alberta: 74/17/5/4

[Njall]

Didn't see it posted anywhere yet, so here's the latest Alberta poll from Mainstreet.

Topline numbers are 38/29/23/5/5

Edmonton: 43/26/21/5/4
Calgary: 38/26/22/7/7
Rest of Alberta: 48/27/16/4/4


The federal political temperature in Alberta is also taken. The topline results for that are 67/24/6/4

Edmonton: 48/39/9/4
Calgary: 64/26/5/4
Rest of Alberta: 74/17/5/4

The only way those numbers work is if by Edmonton and Calgary, they just mean the cities and not their suburbs.  That skews the numbers for the 'rest of Alberta' a bit I think, since the NDP hold all seven (or so) suburban Edmonton ridings.  There are only around 3 suburban Calgary ridings with Wildrose holding all of them.

NDP still look pretty decent in the city of Edmonton, but in the 2015 election, they received over 50% of the vote in all 19 city ridings.

I've been reading that the provincial ridings in Alberta are skewed in favor of rural areas as opposed to Edmonton and Calgary. There may be more rural ridings than is warranted by their population, but I don't see the big problem overall:

Total ridings: 87
Calgary and suburbs: 28
Edmonton and suburbs: 26
Smaller cities: 10
Rural: 23

Also, 7 of the rural ridings are large and remote northern rural ridings.

The 10 smaller city ridings are:
2 for Red Deer
2 for Lethbridge
2 for Grand Prairie
2 for Fort McMurray
1 for Medicine Hat
1 for Wetaskiwin-Camrose

I assume that the Calgary and Edmonton numbers are just for the cities proper. That said, remember that while the NDP do hold a number of ridings surrounding Edmonton, their holds on many of them are much weaker than Edmonton proper. For example, the NDP only won the largely-suburban riding of Leduc-Beaumont with 38% of the vote, while the suburban (but within Edmonton) riding of Edmonton-Ellerslie (directly north of Leduc-Beaumont) gave its NDP candidate 62%.

At 43% in Edmonton overall, especially with a divided opposition, the NDP would likely still win most or all of the seats in Edmonton. It's possible that a handful like Edmonton-Whitemud or Edmonton-South West would slip away, but I imagine they'd retain at least 15 or 16 seats from Edmonton alone. The NDP's challenge will be elsewhere - aside from a few ridings like Calgary-Fort, Lethbridge-West, and Spruce Grove-St. Albert, they don't have particularly strong holds on the rest of their seats. The pending redistribution may change this a bit, but not enough.

As for the rural skew, that's mostly a myth in the modern day, and is largely based on how things in Alberta used to be. Ridings are allocated to the three "regions" of Alberta before being drawn: the City of Calgary, the City of Edmonton, and the "Rest of Alberta." The 2009/10 redistribution gave 25 seats to Calgary, 19 to Edmonton, and 43 to the rest of Alberta, which would result in average population sizes of 42,618 in Calgary, 41,181 in Edmonton, and 39,737 in the Rest of Alberta. The only way (aside from "rurban" ridings in Calgary or Edmonton) that the populations could have been equalized more would have been to transfer one additional seat from the Rest of Alberta to Calgary.

That said, the rural-urban disparities did used to be much greater. Before the 1995/96 redistribution commission began their work, for example, the average riding populations were: 38,404 in Calgary, 34,239 in Edmonton, and 27,824 in the Rest of Alberta.

[Njall]

Alberta is about to Unite The Right!

Livestream of Jean and Kenney's remarks here for anyone who's interested

[Njall]

Alberta is about to Unite The Right!

Some Wildrose figures (Brian Jean, Drew Barnes, Paul Hinman, etc.) are unsure that the agreement will get enough support from their party. For context, the WRP constitution requires 75% of their members to vote in favour of a merger. 

[Njall]

Alberta's political centrists are attempting to consolidate around the Alberta Party ahead of the 2019 election. Alberta Together, a new centrist PAC being run by Stephen Mandel (former Edmonton Mayor) and Katherine O'Neill (until recently, President of PC Alberta) hosted a cross-party meeting of centrists in Red Deer yesterday, during which 83% of attendees voted in favour of the Alberta Party as the best vehicle to present a credible centrist option in 2019.

[Njall]

Ok, thanks. I saw an article that said something about it, but I didn't think it sounded too realistic.

Calling early elections is just about the stupidest decision a politician can make in a Westminster system.

In any case, Notley's already nixed the idea.

Alberta's political centrists are attempting to consolidate around the Alberta Party ahead of the 2019 election. Alberta Together, a new centrist PAC being run by Stephen Mandel (former Edmonton Mayor) and Katherine O'Neill (until recently, President of PC Alberta) hosted a cross-party meeting of centrists in Red Deer yesterday, during which 83% of attendees voted in favour of the Alberta Party as the best vehicle to present a credible centrist option in 2019.

What's the point? The only way a non right wing party is going to win is with a divided right or a catch-all non Conservative Party. And the NDP is the best vehicle for that, it certainly is very centrist (at least compared to where the NDP is usually in other jurisdictions).

There are quite a number of people who see the NDP as being too fiscally irresponsible (due to year-over-year deficit projections of $10 billion or more even with optimistic oil price projections, the fact that they're on course to rack up $70 billion of debt, the fact that AB has already seen five credit downgrades, etc.), but also don't want to vote for a hard-right Kenney-led party. In other words, the appetite seems to be there for a fiscally conservative, socially progressive party.

On a related note, how are the Liberals doing? Basically moribund or do they have serious plans for a comeback attempt in 2019?

The AB Liberals just wrapped up a leadership race, where former ALP Executive Vice President David Khan beat former LPC candidate (and provincial PC member until Kenney won) Kerry Cundal, 54% to 46%. Cundal was running on a platform of centrist unity, while Khan wants to keep the ALP alive as a distinct party. Khan's planning on running candidates in all 87 ridings in 2019, but I personally don't see the ALP as being in a good position strategically. They only have around 2,000 members (almost half of whom essentially voted to unite-the-centre), are only polling at around 5%, and are likely looking at their only MLA retiring at the next election.

[Njall]

Ok, thanks. I saw an article that said something about it, but I didn't think it sounded too realistic.

Calling early elections is just about the stupidest decision a politician can make in a Westminster system.

In any case, Notley's already nixed the idea.

Alberta's political centrists are attempting to consolidate around the Alberta Party ahead of the 2019 election. Alberta Together, a new centrist PAC being run by Stephen Mandel (former Edmonton Mayor) and Katherine O'Neill (until recently, President of PC Alberta) hosted a cross-party meeting of centrists in Red Deer yesterday, during which 83% of attendees voted in favour of the Alberta Party as the best vehicle to present a credible centrist option in 2019.

What's the point? The only way a non right wing party is going to win is with a divided right or a catch-all non Conservative Party. And the NDP is the best vehicle for that, it certainly is very centrist (at least compared to where the NDP is usually in other jurisdictions).

There are quite a number of people who see the NDP as being too fiscally irresponsible (due to year-over-year deficit projections of $10 billion or more even with optimistic oil price projections, the fact that they're on course to rack up $70 billion of debt, the fact that AB has already seen five credit downgrades, etc.), but also don't want to vote for a hard-right Kenney-led party. In other words, the appetite seems to be there for a fiscally conservative, socially progressive party.

On a related note, how are the Liberals doing? Basically moribund or do they have serious plans for a comeback attempt in 2019?

The AB Liberals just wrapped up a leadership race, where former ALP Executive Vice President David Khan beat former LPC candidate (and provincial PC member until Kenney won) Kerry Cundal, 54% to 46%. Cundal was running on a platform of centrist unity, while Khan wants to keep the ALP alive as a distinct party. Khan's planning on running candidates in all 87 ridings in 2019, but I personally don't see the ALP as being in a good position strategically. They only have around 2,000 members (almost half of whom essentially voted to unite-the-centre), are only polling at around 5%, and are likely looking at their only MLA retiring at the next election.

I can certainly appreciate the 'stocker shock' at the size of the deficits under the NDP government.  But, I think this new 'centrist' party, if it emerges, needs to be made to deal in specifics.  If it wants to cut spending, they need to detail precisely what spending cuts they would make.  If they reply to a question on this with 'reduce waste and make efficiencies' they should not be regarded as a serious political party.

The Alberta Party, which appears to be the likely vehicle for centrist unity, has been the only opposition party to release shadow budgets each year since the NDP got in. Here is their 2017 shadow budget.

[Njall]

Regarding the proposed Alberta conservative merger: Some Wildrosers are preparing to create a new party if the deal goes through, and Starke seems (IMO) to be hinting at going independent and not joining the UCP if the deal is approved

[Njall]

Regarding the proposed Alberta conservative merger: Some Wildrosers are preparing to create a new party if the deal goes through, and Starke seems (IMO) to be hinting at going independent and not joining the UCP if the deal is approved

A couple questions for Njall or anyone else who cares to comment:

1) The 2004 federal election shows us that predicting results won't be as simple as 2015 PC vote + 2015 Wildrose vote. The Tories lost 15-20 seats they "should" have won based on the 2000 results. Assuming all breakaway third parties, indy runs are flops, how much of the combined conservative vote do you think the NDP/Liberals/Alberta Party will be able to pick off? What does that mean in seats?

2) Are Wildrose hardliners mostly libertarians, socons or populists? What are the odds that they are able to get a meaningful % of the vote?

1) This question is very difficult to answer for a number of reasons, including not knowing what the price of oil (and therefore the budget and employment situations) will be in 2019, and not knowing who the leader of the UCP will be. That said, I'll take a stab at it. The 2012 and 2015 elections showed that Albertans saw substantive differences between the PCs and WRP, so it's essentially assured that some of their bases will drop off. The Liberals are essentially dead-in-the-water now, so if that stays the same in 2019, I doubt many voters will gravitate there. I also have a hard time seeing the NDP getting a net gain in votes given how poorly they've been polling, and how the ongoing rhetoric from opposition parties and in the media seems to be almost solely blaming the NDP for the province's current economic and financial situation. So that would leave the Alberta Party as the logical recipient of former conservative voters who don't want to support the UCP, especially since the ABP has taken a more clearly fiscally conservative tack since the last election.

In terms of seats, I imagine that gravitation towards the ABP from former conservative voters would probably have more of an effect of preserving some marginal NDP seats than gaining seats for the ABP. Now, we don't know what the map will look like yet, but take the current riding of Calgary-Currie, in inner(-ish) city Calgary, for example: the NDP won there with just under 40% of the vote, and the combined PC+WRP vote was nearly 45%. Given the close margin and the demographics of the riding, I could definitely see a conservative move to the ABP helping the NDP win here again.

I don't know how many voters province wide would move from conservative to ABP, mind you. But I remember seeing an interesting poll from last year that asked about political spectrum identification, amongst other things. In that poll, without excluding those who were unsure (roughly a quarter of respondents), 27% of PC and 11% of WRP voters self-identified as centrists, while a further 9% of PC and 1% of WRP voters self-identified as centre-left. Assuming for a moment that those poll results were accurate, even without considering centre-right voters uncomfortable with a UCP, they suggest that around a third of PC voter and a tenth of WRP voters would be open to migrating to more of a centrist party.


2) From what I can tell, the WRP hardline would likely lean more towards socons and populists. Historically, when right-wing splinter parties in Alberta have gained some steam they've ended up polling between 5% and 12% provincially. This would likely have a spoiler effect for the UCP more than actual success for the hypothetical party. In 2004, for example, the upstart Alberta Alliance got 8.7% of the vote province-wide. They only won 1 seat, but there's a case to be made that they enabled PC losses in up to 7 other seats.

[Njall]

Jean will run as the centrist candidate? Fits my province's precedent.

Interesting column, but I'm skeptical about Jean running an actual centrist campaign. If he did, it would be a losing strategy, as he'd likely alienate many from what is arguably his base, and his WRP background would make it tougher for a lot of moderates to stomach voting for him.

[Njall]

Kenney is unsure if all PC MLAs will join the new UCP caucus.

[Njall]

PC Leadership financial disclosures are out. These only cover donations after the official start of the campaign period (so not donations that went to the Unite Alberta PAC), but these numbers show that Kenney spent $1.5 million to win the leadership, while Starke spent just under $200K, and Khan and Nelson spent around $50K each.

[Njall]

As he had previously hinted, Vermilion-Lloydminster MLA Richard Starke will not be joining the UCP caucus.