Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

[HagridOfTheDeep]

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What a stupid thing. We can help make a difference in this conflict (and it's one we have a big stake in) with minuscule negative consequences for our nation. Sigh.

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Mulcair was dealt the best hand imaginable and completely blew it.

What was he supposed to do when everyone started talking about niqabs?

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http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/police-likely-to-investigate-death-threats-against-rachel-notley-security-expert-says-1.3362620?cmp=rss

It doesn't matter if these people are just "howlers" as law enforcement puts it, they should be made an example of. There should be ZERO TOLERANCE for death threats against public figures.

We should probably set up a rotation to visit Hash in Kingston Pen then...

That would be some kind of sadistic solitary confinement these days.

Although it's strangely very pretty these days. I went to school for my B.Ed. basically a block away.

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Quebec's unemployment rate is lower than Alberta's for the first time in 30 years. Halifax is a solid 1.5% below Calgary. No schadenfreude for me though as my brother in law was just laid off there

Isn't Halifax a fairly wealthy city?

Yes. We certainly aren't as well off as the oil producing parts of the country, but its definitely easier to achieve a middle class lifestyle than in Toronto or Vancouver. Household incomes are comparable to Toronto or Vancouver, but you can buy a detached house 20 minutes from downtown for 250k.

Maybe I'll head out to the east coast, haha. Life in Toronto and Vancouver has made me feel pretty dejected about my future. I don't know if there's enough going on in Halifax for me to be perfectly happy, but... house prices in vancouver are ridiculous.

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It's a shame. I really like Mulcair and I think he could have been a decent prime minister. The reality is, though, that he basically has no advantages when stacked up against Justin Trudeau. In four years, JT will have enough street cred that knocks against his lack of experience or naivety won't matter... which means Mulcair's commanding presence would be moot. And he does not look hip or radical or in touch with the new progressive left at all. So it's a good choice to go with a fresh face.

How's Megan Lelsie's French?

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It seems likely the Liberals will win the next election. Conservatives at the earliest may have a chance of forming government in 2023.

In January 2012, there was serious talk whether the Liberal Party would become a permanent third party like its British cousin. Hell, they were polling in 3rd last summer.

Yeah, but the Liberals have more built-in advantages than the CPC. The ability to pretend to be many things at once is a huge asset. And the only thing that was holding them back during their last slump was an apparent loss of credibility thanks a combination of poor leadership for almost a decade and the NDP projecting strength. The likes of Nikki Ashton won't be able to help make the NDP look like a serious party, and Trudeau will be a popular progressive/centrist incumbent.

Hell, Justin has the potential to beat Laurier's record as longest-serving consecutive prime minister... especially if we get some kind of preferential voting. It's a bit sad, really. But I doubt I'll have very compelling reasons to vote against him myself.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

It seems likely the Liberals will win the next election. Conservatives at the earliest may have a chance of forming government in 2023.

In January 2012, there was serious talk whether the Liberal Party would become a permanent third party like its British cousin. Hell, they were polling in 3rd last summer.

Yeah, but the Liberals have more built-in advantages than the CPC. The ability to pretend to be many things at once is a huge asset. And the only thing that was holding them back during their last slump was an apparent loss of credibility thanks a combination of poor leadership for almost a decade and the NDP projecting strength. The likes of Nikki Ashton won't be able to help make the NDP look like a serious party, and Trudeau will be a popular progressive/centrist incumbent.

Hell, Justin has the potential to beat Laurier's record as longest-serving consecutive prime minister... especially if we get some kind of preferential voting. It's a bit sad, really. But I doubt I'll have very compelling reasons to vote against him myself.

lol @ bringing up Nikki Ashton for no reason.

There's a very good reason. She exemplifies the generally low calibre of the candidates who will be vying to replace Mulcair. It may not actually be her, but if you can convincingly find me a potential prime minister in the bunch I'll re-evaluate. I don't think you can.

So honestly, I stand by my assertion that the fundamentals are extremely favourable for the Liberal Party. And yes, when I say that I do mean for years and years to come.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

So, I volunteered at the Liberal tent at a Korean heritage festival in Burnaby South yesterday. I had a decent time, but I have to say that I completely underestimated a certain phenomenon at play in federal election politics today. An old lady—a frequent volunteer for the party—pointed it out and I scoffed because I thought it was kind of an insulting way to think of female voters, but through the day it proved to be surprisingly insightful: Women really, legitimately swoon over Justin Trudeau. And the Liberal Party knows it, so virtually all of their branding goes heavy on using his name and picture.

We gave out gigantic posters of his face, little post cards of his face, buttons with his face on them... and women would come and get so giddy and take everything. They took photos with the large sign panel of Trudeau. It's astounding to me. And sadly, I highly doubt they could have told me much of anything about his policies.

Is it a big factor? I don't know. But Trudeau has an image that will be very, very difficult to tarnish, especially now that he has the incumbency on his side. The whole thing put a very sour taste in my mouth. And although I will probably vote Liberal in the next election, I continue to be, uh... not the biggest fan of the Prime Minister. It was great to see him and his perfect family at Pride last weekend, but I can't get over some things about the guy and how his image has been constructed and received.

But I remain convinced that he could literally be the prime minister for decades.

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Mainstreet-ON: 50/31/15... in 416! Tories even lead in the downtown core. Wonder what the seat count looks like.

JFC. She's so friggin' selfish. For the sake of the future of the province, please resign.

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NDP under Jagmeet Singh is looking like an unmitigated disaster. Not going for a seat in the House was a ridiculous decision. He comes off as an over-confident high-school debater on TV and could have seriously benefited from having some practice and actual attention in the HoC. His caucus doesn’t respect him because its members don’t know him, and they’re probably all losing faith by the day with poll numbers like these.

Sure, Mulcair made some tactical errors, but surely there must be some party members regretting that they gave him the boot. After Justin’s sanctimonious and empty tenure as PM, Mulcair might actually be exactly the kind of leader people would want. Kind of a shame.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

They didn't want him when he was actually opposition leader, correct?

I don’t recall hearing this. Maybe I’m wrong though. But it looks like the “not good enough” showing they had in 2015 will be far better than whatever abysmal result they manage next time, so...

[HagridOfTheDeep]

So Jagmeet Singh says he's committed to moving to Burnaby.

Too little too late, I think. The NDP has greatly shrunk in stature during his tenure and I’m honestly not sure how he recovers. Devastating if he loses this byelection. I don’t think he’d make it to the 2019 election. And if he does, with or without his own seat, the NDP will not do well. His youthfulness and seemingly brash confidence makes him look small (IMO). Progressives will still rally around Trudeau.

But there’s my baseless speculation for the day. It’s a shame. Mulcair, packaged correctly, seems like the perfect counterweight to JT.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

He hasn’t stepped in it over major issues? What? He got into a civil war with his caucus over abortion, feuds daily with a successful premier from a provincial arm of his party over pipelines, and was seen by some as being too earnest when it came to his strategy for dealing with allegations of abuse/harassment against members of his party.

I won’t rip him to shreds, but there’s no way he could be called a success. Not only has he been an ineffective and hollow spokesperson, but his decision to not immediately seek a seat has since proven to be a huge blunder. He has very little credibility among his own caucus, has not built important intra-party relationships, and has now accumulated such a stink of failure that there’s very little he can do to get out from under it even if he manages to do everything perfectly up to the election. It’s not fair, but it’s the reality. He had lots of chances.

So I maintain that the party made a huge mistake turfing and disrespecting Mulcair. He did not meet expectations in 2015, I’ll grant that. But people saw him and knew he was tough and capable. A bit of course correction for 2019 and he could have been the perfect counterpoint to Trudeau.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

He hasn’t stepped in it over major issues? What? He got into a civil war with his caucus over abortion, feuds daily with a successful premier from a provincial arm of his party over pipelines, and was seen by some as being too earnest when it came to his strategy for dealing with allegations of abuse/harassment against members of his party.

I won’t rip him to shreds, but there’s no way he could be called a success. Not only has he been an ineffective and hollow spokesperson, but his decision to not immediately seek a seat has since proven to be a huge blunder. He has very little credibility among his own caucus, has not built important intra-party relationships, and has now accumulated such a stink of failure that there’s very little he can do to get out from under it even if he manages to do everything perfectly up to the election. It’s not fair, but it’s the reality. He had lots of chances.

So I maintain that the party made a huge mistake turfing and disrespecting Mulcair. He did not meet expectations in 2015, I’ll grant that. But people saw him and knew he was tough and capable. A bit of course correction for 2019 and he could have been the perfect counterpoint to Trudeau.

This seems quite a bit over the top.  I doubt most Canadians could even name Jagmeet Singh as head of the NDP yet alone know anything about any of these things.

And that’s pretty bad too.

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Heaven forbid students practice experimenting, problem-solving, and thinking critically to build computational math skills/number sense.

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FPTP wins with 61% in BC.

The absolute worst thing is my BC Liberal acquaintances pretending to be progressive. They celebrate the defeat of proportional representation but two years ago lamented the way Trudeau abandoned it.

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I think the conversation around what one might call "green values" is also a little bit different here than it is in the United States, though I might be wrong. Anthropogenic climate change is obviously worth discussion (and that's an understatement), but it seems like there are more shades of environmentalism here because of the deservedly big focus we're putting on Reconciliation with Indigenous people. It doesn't feel like Green Party politics in Canada is Al Gore's brand of climate action. It's deeply connected to place, history, stewardship, and interconnectedness between people and the "more-than-human world." Maybe I'm conflating politics with my own niche interests, but the CBC seems to dig into these issues a lot differently than the American media does, which I imagine does influence our national consciousness to conceptualize environmental issues just a little bit differently too.