IA-Quinnipiac:Carson 28% Trump 20% Rubio 13% Cruz 10% Paul 6% Bush 5% Fiorina 5%

[Mr. Morden]

Quinnipiac poll of Iowa, conducted Oct. 14-20:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/iowa-poll-shows-ben-carson-overtaking-donald-trump-for-the-first-time/
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2291

Carson 28%
Trump 20%
Rubio 13%
Cruz 10%
Paul 6%
Bush 5%
Fiorina 5%
Jindal 3%
Kasich 3%
Huckabee 2%
Christie 1%
Santorum 1%
Gilmore, Graham, Pataki 0%

[eric82oslo]

Game changer. Trump is a sinking ship now.

Also: No Jindal!

Plus, those are strong numbers for Paul! If correct. Since it's Selzer, I have no doubts they are correct. Also the Pauls are the ultimate caucus wonks.

[Mr. Morden]

To clarify, those aren't the only names they polled.  Just the only ones included in that news story.  The full #s will be released in ~45 minutes.

[Blair]

Rubio at 13% is very strong

[Landslide Lyndon]

Rubio at 13% is very strong

Rubio will rise by default after the Bush/Walker debacles.
The problem is he doesn't have the money or infrastructure to capitalize the situation and he doesn't seem inclined to do retail politics.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Paul is going up good, Trump is falling even better. I wish Bush would just fall off the face of Iowa.

[/]

Trump

[Mr. Morden]

I wonder if Carson will become a target for the other candidates in the next debate...

[Landslide Lyndon]

I wonder if Carson will become a target for the other candidates in the next debate...

I wonder if the Republican establishment is so desperate that they are ready to accept him as the nominee.

[Eraserhead]

The Donald is not going to be happy about this.

[Mr. Morden]

Full #s now out:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2291

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Full #s now out:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2291

Considering how skewiff QU's numbers have been this season... I would want to see more before I get too excited about this.

[Mr. Morden]

Carson’s best demo is white born-again Evangelicals, where he’s at 36%, compared to Trump’s 17%.

Also…

among voters with a college degree:
Carson 23%
Rubio 17%
Trump 12%

among voters with no college degree:
Carson 31%
Trump 24%
Rubio 11%

Bush, Christie, Cruz, Fiorina, Jindal, Kasich, Pataki, and Rubio all do better among voters with a college degree.

Carson, Huckabee, Paul, Santorum, and Trump all do better among voters without one.

Is there any candidate who you would not support under any circumstances?

Trump 30%
Bush 21%
Graham 15%
Christie 14%
Pataki 10%
Paul 10%
Santorum 10%
Huckabee 9%
Kasich 9%
Fiorina 8%
Gilmore 8%
Cruz 7%
Jindal 7%
Rubio 5%
Carson 4%

[Eraserhead]

The establishment may get behind Carson in Iowa purely as a means of stopping Trump. Then they'll look to prop up Bush or Rubio in New Hampshire.

[eric82oslo]

I wonder if Carson will become a target for the other candidates in the next debate...

I wonder if the Republican establishment is so desperate that they are ready to accept him as the nominee.

He's much easier to tear down than Trump. Thus they won't go after him until Trump has become more or less a non-factor.

[eric82oslo]

The establishment may get behind Carson in Iowa purely as a means of stopping Trump. Then they'll look to prop up Bush or Rubio in New Hampshire.

Agreed 100%. This will be their game plan.

[The Mikado]

It'll be interesting to see if DMR backs this up. These results are more about Carson than Trump...if this poll had been taken two weeks ago I'm sure Trump would've been even lower, but he's on the rebound. Anyway, Iowa is, as many have noted, a great fit for Carson, and this kind of result could start setting up a Trump/Carson horserace narrative.

[Mr. Morden]

I’m assuming that we’ll get the Republican #s from the Selzer poll tomorrow, so we can see if Carson is really leading here.  If he is, then all you guys who laughed at the Club for Growth’s poll will have to hang your heads in shame.

Also, if Carson is leading here, and in Wisconsin, and in Michigan, then that means that bronz4141 was right all along with his “soothing Midwesterner” hypothesis.  We thought that the soothing Midwesterner had to be Kasich or Walker or Pence.  But it turns out that it was the doctor from Detroit.  He’s so soothing that he sounds like a refugee from an ASMR video.

[King]

Ugh.

[Maxwell]

I wonder if Carson will become a target for the other candidates in the next debate...

If they go after him too intensely they will look like racists going after the nice black doctor. It won't work.

[King]

I wonder if Carson will become a target for the other candidates in the next debate...

If they go after him too intensely they will look like racists going after the nice black doctor. It won't work.

There is only one man who can save this great country from Dr. Ben Carson:

[Senator Cris]

Strong #s for Rubio, that's growing more than any other candidate here (+8).

[Mister Mets]

I wonder if Carson will become a target for the other candidates in the next debate...

I wonder if the Republican establishment is so desperate that they are ready to accept him as the nominee.

I think they'll wait a month or so before attacking.

He just seems like a softer frontrunner, and one who won't complain as much when polls go against him.

[weixiaobao]

Look like the Club for Growth poll had some merit since it show
-Carson going up
-Trump going down
-Rubio trending upward

relative to the polls before it and to this Quin. poll.

[Lief 🗽]

The Midwest may be a little too nice, a little too low energy for TRUMP. But the good people of NH will stand behind him.