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  KY-Western Kentucky University: Conway (D) up 5
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Author Topic: KY-Western Kentucky University: Conway (D) up 5  (Read 2072 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 26, 2015, 11:00:18 am »

45% Conway (D)
40% Bevin (R)
  7% Curtis (I)
  8% Undecided

...

The WKU Social Science Research Center (SSRC) conducted the Big Red Poll, a live-caller, dual frame (landline and cell phone) survey of 770 likely Kentucky voters between October 19-October 25, 2015.  70% of respondents were reached via land line, and 30% were reached via cell phone.  The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.5%.

GUBERNATORIAL RACE

According to the latest Big Red Poll, Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway leads Republican Matt Bevin 45% - 40% among likely Kentucky voters.  7% indicated support for Independent candidate Drew Curtis, and 8% indicated that they are still undecided.

Among Democrats Conway leads Bevin 85%-5%, and among liberals Conway leads 84%-6%. Republicans, Bevin leads Conway 80%-12%, and among conservatives Bevin leads 65%-23%. Conway leads among independents by a margin of 40%-30% and moderate voters 60%-26%. There is also evidence of a gender gap in Kentucky.  Conway leads among female voters (51%-34%), while Bevin leads among male voters (46%-41%).

FAVORABILITY RATINGS

Voters are largely mixed with regard to how they view the candidates for governor.  35% have a favorable view of Jack Conway, as opposed to 28% who have an unfavorable view.  33% have a favorable view of Matt Bevin, as opposed to 36% who have an unfavorable view.  The majority of respondents are either neutral toward (29%) or have no opinion on (57%) Drew Curtis.

APPROVAL RATINGS

Governor Beshear

Respondents were asked whether they approved or disapproved of the job performance of both Governor Beshear, President Obama, and Congress.  Kentuckians indicated they were satisfied with the current governor, as 59% approved of the job he was doing, while only 25% disapproved of his job performance.  Conway leads among those who approve of Governor Beshear’s job performance by a 67%-23% margin.  Bevin leads among those who disapprove of Beshear 72%-12%.

President Obama

Kentuckians indicated they were not very satisfied with the performance of the President, as only 35% indicated they approved of the job President Obama was doing, while 60% indicated they disapproved of the job President Obama is doing.  Those who disapprove of the job President Obama is doing are more likely to vote for Matt Bevin (64%).  Those who approve of the job President Obama is doing said they are more likely to vote for Conway (85%).

Congress

Kentuckians also indicated strong dissatisfaction with the performance of Congress.  Only 8% indicated they approved of the job Congress is doing, while 84% indicated they disapproved with the job Congress is doing.  Conway leads Bevin irrespective of whether the respondent approves (42%-39%) or disapproves (47%-39%) of the job Congress is doing.

TEA PARTY

9% of those surveyed self-identified as members of the TEA Party.  Additionally, 25% of those who did not self-identify indicated that they were sympathetic to the views expressed by the TEA Party.  Not surprisingly, Bevin has done well among both groups, as he leads Conway 75%-14% among self-described TEA Party members, and 68%-16% among those who consider themselves to be sympathetic to the cause of the TEA Party.

ABOUT THE WKU SSRC

The WKU Social Science Research, established in October 2012 as part of a coordinated effort involving the Departments of Political Science, Sociology, and Public Health, is a computer assisted survey lab with the capacity to conduct surveys via telephone, mail, online, and through the use of in-person interviews.  For the latest news on what is happening at the WKU SSRC like us on Facebook (facebook.com/WKUSSRC) or follow us on Twitter (@WKUSSRC).

http://wkussrc.blogspot.co.at/2015/10/v-behaviorurldefaultvmlo.html
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2015, 11:06:53 am »

New Poll: Kentucky Governor by Western Kentucky University on 2015-10-25

Summary: D: 45%, R: 40%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2015, 11:13:07 am »

9% of those surveyed self-identified as members of the TEA Party.

Now can we finally put to rest the idea that people in Kentucky support the Tea Party?
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2015, 01:54:16 pm »

Does Bevin even WANT to win this race?
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2015, 01:58:39 pm »

He's was favored to win, but Conway caught fire and it has been all Conway. Likely D. LOUISIANA a tossup.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: October 26, 2015, 08:32:56 pm »

I would like to see a poll with Conway over or close to 50 before I would put this at Lean D.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #6 on: October 26, 2015, 11:58:43 pm »

ayy #conway2015
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2015, 03:49:22 pm »

I'm torn on this race. On one hand, all the polls indicate Conway has a slight advantage. Kentucky has a unusually high difference between its elections at the state level and federal level. But the polls have been so wrong lately, especially in red states, overestimating Democrats. There's still enough undecideds to make it seriously close too.
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JMT
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« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2015, 10:49:06 pm »

I still think this race is a toss up. Kentucky has become increasingly Republican in recent years, its become a lot harder for dems to win here. Republicans really should have this in the bag, but because it is a state election and not a federal one, and due to the fact that Bevin is an awful candidate, Jack Conway definitely has a chance. But I think its a pure tossup, wouldn't say Conway is favored because this poll still has him under 50% and there are 8% undecided, which is quite high at this point. I also doubt Curtis will get 7% in the end, I think anywhere between 2 to 4 % is more realistic. I hope Conway wins, but I don't think Conway has this in the bag.
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YaBoyNY
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« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2015, 01:28:00 pm »

I'm putting money on Conway despite all the doubts.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2015, 01:56:47 pm »

I'm putting money on Conway despite all the doubts.

Someone told me that if we use statistical analysis and consider all the polls, Conway has a 98% chance of winning.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2015, 09:36:59 pm »

14 points, 14 POINTS!! That's how far off these polls are. Unacceptable.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2015, 09:56:15 pm »

14 points, 14 POINTS!! That's how far off these polls are. Unacceptable.
Polling in Kentucky=Polling in Hawaii/Alaska?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2015, 01:38:32 am »

This is the same pollster which showed Grimes losing only by 3 to McConnell.
I think we can safely put them now in the polling Hall of Shame along with Zogby, Gravis and ARG.
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« Reply #14 on: November 04, 2015, 02:01:38 am »

Kentucky polls fail again. I wouldn't be surprised if some polls show Clinton within single digits of her Republican opponent next year.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2015, 02:17:44 pm »

Conway lost momentum down the stretch as the Vox Popeli polls showed. But, at some point, he was leading.
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