CBS national poll - Carson now leads Trump

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbsnyt-poll-ben-carson-edges-out-donald-trump/

Carson - 26%
Trump - 22%
Rubio - 8%
Bush - 7%
Fiorina - 7%

Everyone else is under 4%. What do you think about this?  Outlier or a trend?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Part of me hopes this "Carson surging" narrative is designed to get Trump to go nuclear on Carson at the debate.

Thank God it wasn't a YouGov poll, Trump would still have a solid lead.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Voters are tired of Trump.

[Mr. Morden]

Just hours after LV said this:

The disparity between the online GOP polls (like Morning Consult) and the live phone polls is getting ridiculous.

it gets even more ridiculous.  So this campaign has firmly established that Republican voters with telephones want Carson to be president and Republican voters with the internet want Trump to be president.

[/]

I hope Carson maintains his lead. Until the GE.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Who leads amongst groups:
Conservatives - Carson
Moderates - Trump
No college degree - Trump
college degree - Carson
Evangelicals - Carson
Tea Party - Carson
Women - Carson
Men - tied between Trump and Carson

[EliteLX]

Voters are tired of Trump.

[Mr. Morden]

Who leads amongst groups:
Conservatives - Carson
Moderates - Trump
No college degree - Trump
college degree - Carson
Evangelicals - Carson
Tea Party - Carson
Women - Carson
Men - tied between Trump and Carson

Where are you getting the crosstabs from?  I don't see that in the link above.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Who leads amongst groups:
Conservatives - Carson
Moderates - Trump
No college degree - Trump
college degree - Carson
Evangelicals - Carson
Tea Party - Carson
Women - Carson
Men - tied between Trump and Carson

Where are you getting the crosstabs from?  I don't see that in the link above.

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[Mr. Morden]

Ah, OK.  I also note from here:

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/10/27/poll-watch-ben-carson-edges-ahead-nationally-in-timescbs-news-poll/

that we have:

Cruz 4%
Huckabee 4%
Kasich 4%
Paul 4%

No word on Christie, but he’s presumably below 4%.  I guess we still don’t know the polling threshold for the Fox Business debate in two weeks, so maybe there’s a chance that Christie will be in some jeopardy for missing that one, but the other usual suspects will probably be OK.

[Making America Great Again]

This is trash. CBS funds Hillary. She sees Trump as a threat so they likely fudged the poll numbers.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

This is trash. CBS funds Hillary. She sees Trump as a threat so they likely fudged the poll numbers.

Oh get over yourself, Trump supporters get so worked up when that blowhard loses LOL

[The Mikado]

So Trump is polling like he did three weeks ago in other polls...Trump is clearly doomed.

He's had several dips over the last few months. He bounces right back.

[King]

Trump is going to show off his surgery tricks by disemboweling Carson live on stage tomorrow.

[Skye]

Wonder if Carson will be able to stand the pressure in the coming days.

[Mr. Morden]

Full #s now out:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/287251908/Toplines-for-a-m-CBS-NYT-GOP-poll

Carson - 26%
Trump - 22%
Rubio - 8%
Bush - 7%
Fiorina - 7%
Cruz 4%
Huckabee 4%
Kasich 4%
Paul 4%
Graham 2%
Christie 1%
Santorum 1%
Jindal, Pataki, Gilmore 0%

Pretty poor for Christie.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Full #s now out:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/287251908/Toplines-for-a-m-CBS-NYT-GOP-poll

Carson - 26%
Trump - 22%
Rubio - 8%
Bush - 7%
Fiorina - 7%
Cruz 4%
Huckabee 4%
Kasich 4%
Paul 4%
Graham 2%
Christie 1%
Santorum 1%
Jindal, Pataki, Gilmore 0%

Pretty poor for Christie.

Lol Graham ahead of Christie.... #Grahammentum

[Mr. Morden]

Via HuffPo, if you aggregate all the internet polls, the trendline shows Turmp with a 14 point lead on Carson.  But if you instead use the live telephone interview polls, the lead is just under 3 points.  The two seem to be sampling rather different universes:

[Donald Trump 2016 !]

Clearly Trump is winning in both scenarios. He's the supreme gentleman, the ultimate candidate for President. Bow before him. Carson will never make it.

[The Mikado]

In both universes, no one else is in double digits.

[Why]

Carson has been catching Trump, it was only a matter of time until there was a poll showing Carson ahead (apart from the idiotic IDB/TIPP poll that was clearly wrong). It needs further verification from other polls to be certain that Carson is really in front rather than this poll favoring Carson.
If Carson fails in the next debate like he failed in the last debate then the whole dynamic might change, at least in the short term, again.

[Donald Trump 2016 !]

Carson has been catching Trump, it was only a matter of time until there was a poll showing Carson ahead (apart from the idiotic IDB/TIPP poll that was clearly wrong). It needs further verification from other polls to be certain that Carson is really in front rather than this poll favoring Carson.
If Carson fails in the next debate like he failed in the last debate then the whole dynamic might change, at least in the short term, again.

Carson left a sponge in a patients' brain once! He's not intelligent enough to perform well in debates. Donald will destroy him on stage. Carson's fictional lead will vanish. Trumpster out.

[Why]

Carson has been catching Trump, it was only a matter of time until there was a poll showing Carson ahead (apart from the idiotic IDB/TIPP poll that was clearly wrong). It needs further verification from other polls to be certain that Carson is really in front rather than this poll favoring Carson.
If Carson fails in the next debate like he failed in the last debate then the whole dynamic might change, at least in the short term, again.

Carson left a sponge in a patients' brain once! He's not intelligent enough to perform well in debates. Donald will destroy him on stage. Carson's fictional lead will vanish. Trumpster out.

Trump did badly in the last debate as well. Both candidates recovered, Carson more so than your boy. Whether the trend of the debates only having a short term effect on the polls continues we will have to wait at see. This debate might have longer implications as the Fox debate follows reasonably quickly, if a candidate does badly in both of them. However a good performance in the second debate might all erase memories of a poor first debate.
I am not convinced that Carson is leading but I am convinced it is fairly close between the two of them.

[weixiaobao]

Meh, this poll just mess up my record keeping process.  It not late enough to be included with the post debate.  And the pre debate polls prior to the debate collecting deadline had already agree with the overall trend.

This I think, does follow the Fox News poll where Trump and Carson was pretty much even.

[Why]

Just hours after LV said this:

The disparity between the online GOP polls (like Morning Consult) and the live phone polls is getting ridiculous.

it gets even more ridiculous.  So this campaign has firmly established that Republican voters with telephones want Carson to be president and Republican voters with the internet want Trump to be president.

Very interesting analysis, it is certainly worth watching.