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  FINAL Surfin' USA poll: Conway +5
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Author Topic: FINAL Surfin' USA poll: Conway +5  (Read 3998 times)
Bandit3 the Worker
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« on: October 28, 2015, 05:04:27 pm »

http://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/elections/kentucky/2015/10/28/bluegrass-poll-governors-race-jack-conway-matt-bevin-drew-curtis/74388352/
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2015, 05:05:28 pm »

In the final Bluegrass Poll, it's Conway with 45 percent, Bevin with 40 percent, and Independent Drew Curtis with 6 percent.

Bevin ends the contest with a -6 net favorability rating as 38 percent of voters have an unfavorable opinion of him, compared to 32 percent who have a favorable opinion.

Conway ends the contest with a +4 net favorability rating as 36 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of him and 32 percent have an unfavorable opinion.

Curtis ends the contest where he started, largely unknown as 80 percent of voters have no opinion of Curtis, or have a neutral opinion of him.

http://www.wkyt.com/home/headlines/Bluegrass-Poll-Conway-keeps-5-point-lead-over-Bevin-in-governors-race-338053442.html
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2015, 05:07:13 pm »

Looking at the crosstabs and favorable numbers, I'd be shocked if Conway ends up losing this election.

My guess would be:

50-51% Conway
44-45% Bevin
    5-6% Curtis
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: October 28, 2015, 05:11:27 pm »

New Poll: Kentucky Governor by Survey USA on 2015-10-26

Summary: D: 45%, R: 40%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Anthony Davis is Awesome
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« Reply #4 on: October 28, 2015, 08:32:02 pm »

Splendid news.
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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #5 on: October 28, 2015, 08:40:10 pm »

Downballot Races:

A. Beshear (D) leads 47-35 for Attorney General
Grimes (D) leads 50-37 for SOS
Edelen (D) leads 42-34 for Auditor
Ball (R) leads 37-35 for Treasurer
Quarles (R) leads 40-33 for Agriculture Commissioner
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Ebsy
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« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2015, 10:51:27 pm »

Grimes is having an easier time of things than I thought she might.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2015, 11:37:56 pm »
« Edited: October 29, 2015, 04:08:50 pm by yeah_93 »

All things considered, I'll be more shocked if Conway wins than if Bevin wins.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #8 on: October 28, 2015, 11:43:03 pm »

All things considered, I'll be more shocked if Conway wins that if Bevin wins.

I'm inclined to agree. Curtis is not getting 6%, and I bet the undecideds are heavily McCain/Romney voters. SUSA also has a history of being far skewed towards the Dems in KY, though they've said they changed their methodology to fix that problem. I guess we'll see.

I hope I'm wrong though, it would be nice to see Bevin get flushed down the toilet again.
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Xing
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« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2015, 11:04:46 am »

Polls in Kentucky could just as easily have a Republican bias this time. Since Bevin hasn't led in a single recent poll (not even a Republican internal poll), and Conway hasn't slipped, I'd be shocked if Bevin won. This isn't a senate race, it's not inconceivable for a Democrat to win here.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2015, 11:09:36 am »

Maybe the cities have grown enough to carry the state for the Democrats, but if so, why aren't the Democrats doing better in Ohio, Indiana, Tennessee, and a host of other states?

We could be seeing the collapse of Republicans in white rural areas.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2015, 11:20:09 am »

Maybe the cities have grown enough to carry the state for the Democrats, but if so, why aren't the Democrats doing better in Ohio, Indiana, Tennessee, and a host of other states?

We could be seeing the collapse of Republicans in white rural areas.
As 2014 showed, this isn't happening now.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2015, 11:28:34 am »

Maybe the cities have grown enough to carry the state for the Democrats, but if so, why aren't the Democrats doing better in Ohio, Indiana, Tennessee, and a host of other states?

We could be seeing the collapse of Republicans in white rural areas.
As 2014 showed, this isn't happening now.

This is 2015.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2015, 01:01:08 pm »

Maybe the cities have grown enough to carry the state for the Democrats, but if so, why aren't the Democrats doing better in Ohio, Indiana, Tennessee, and a host of other states?

We could be seeing the collapse of Republicans in white rural areas.
As 2014 showed, this isn't happening now.
This is 2015.
All the more reason to believe so, then. If Bevin loses, it's not because of the supposed collapse of the GOP in rural white America, it's because he's a crap candidate.
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2015, 01:18:57 pm »

Wasn't Conway supposed to have no chance at all and lose badly? I guess that isn't the case after all.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2015, 01:21:55 pm »

All the more reason to believe so, then. If Bevin loses, it's not because of the supposed collapse of the GOP in rural white America, it's because he's a crap candidate.

Is he really any worse than Paul LePage or Scott Walker?
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WI Is Tilt D
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« Reply #16 on: October 29, 2015, 01:47:54 pm »

KY, like OK, is land of the fake Democrats, people who identify as Democrats but never vote Democratic for any race, for any office, no matter how conservative. They will screw Conway as they have screwed the others. It's what gives them pleasure.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #17 on: October 29, 2015, 03:33:48 pm »
« Edited: October 29, 2015, 03:40:49 pm by TNvolunteer »

For the last time: SUSA is junk in KY. Always has been, always will be. They have done nothing to fix their problems over the past 5 years, as is demonstrated here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=216819.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=192495.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=159314.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=124809.0

All things considered, I'll be more shocked if Conway wins that if Bevin wins.
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Anthony Davis is Awesome
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« Reply #18 on: October 29, 2015, 03:37:48 pm »

Yeah the collapse of the white rural vote is why Kander, Strickland & Jupiter are competetive in their respective races, as well as Murphy.

This isnt 2004 or 2010.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #19 on: October 30, 2015, 11:48:28 am »

Also, why are Vox Populi's push polls being posted in the table here?
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YaBoyNY
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« Reply #20 on: October 30, 2015, 01:29:41 pm »

Maybe the cities have grown enough to carry the state for the Democrats, but if so, why aren't the Democrats doing better in Ohio, Indiana, Tennessee, and a host of other states?

We could be seeing the collapse of Republicans in white rural areas.

I don't think it's the Republicans "collapsing" in rural white Kentucky so much as Bevin is so horrendously bad that Republicans aren't doing as well in rural white Kentucky as they need to.
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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #21 on: November 04, 2015, 12:36:28 am »

SUSA, promise me you will never poll anything ever again in KY!
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RFayette
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« Reply #22 on: November 04, 2015, 01:22:18 am »

If folks still take SUSA KY polls seriously now, then they should be treated just as seriously as Republicans treating one-year-before MI polls. 
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #23 on: November 04, 2015, 01:31:34 am »

There's no point in even having polls, since they're never right anymore.

In every country in the world except the United States, if the election results contradict the polls, that's considered evidence the election was rigged.
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RFayette
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« Reply #24 on: November 04, 2015, 02:16:58 am »

There's no point in even having polls, since they're never right anymore.

In every country in the world except the United States, if the election results contradict the polls, that's considered evidence the election was rigged.

Total BS.  Very few (serious) people thought the recent elections in the UK and Israel were rigged, even though both were badly off.
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