LA: MRI: Edwards over 50%, leading by at least 11%
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 04:56:14 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections
  2023 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  LA: MRI: Edwards over 50%, leading by at least 11%
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2]
Author Topic: LA: MRI: Edwards over 50%, leading by at least 11%  (Read 5203 times)
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: November 04, 2015, 02:24:37 AM »

I realize that this race is not the same as the Kentucky gubernatorial race, but my point is that I'll believe that a Democrat can win in a southern state other than Virginia or Florida again when I see it. This year and last year, we saw that Democrats (often moderate ones) simply could not win in southern red states, even if their opponent was deeply flawed.

Edwards might be over 50% right now (if the polls are accurate), but there are still two and a half weeks left. I'm guessing Republicans will come home for Vitter, even if they won't admit to voting for him in polls. Edwards could pull off a win, but I'm highly skeptical of these numbers.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,759
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: November 04, 2015, 02:42:30 AM »

I realize that this race is not the same as the Kentucky gubernatorial race, but my point is that I'll believe that a Democrat can win in a southern state other than Virginia or Florida again when I see it. This year and last year, we saw that Democrats (often moderate ones) simply could not win in southern red states, even if their opponent was deeply flawed.

Edwards might be over 50% right now (if the polls are accurate), but there are still two and a half weeks left. I'm guessing Republicans will come home for Vitter, even if they won't admit to voting for him in polls. Edwards could pull off a win, but I'm highly skeptical of these numbers.

La has had two Democratic Senators before and have a higher number of blacks concentrated in New Orleans. Bel Edwards has a better chance than Conway.
Logged
DINGO Joe
dingojoe
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,700
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: November 04, 2015, 01:29:27 PM »

There are, like, 100 coal miners in the state up around Shreveport, so watch out!
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,759
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: November 04, 2015, 02:15:55 PM »

Edwards hopefully gets over 50 percent on election day, so Dems dont have to worry.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: November 04, 2015, 03:47:39 PM »

Edwards hopefully gets over 50 percent on election day, so Dems dont have to worry.

Uh, you do realize that this will be a runoff, and that if Edwards doesn't get over 50%, it means that he lost, right?
Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: November 04, 2015, 03:53:38 PM »

I would change my rating for this race from Lean D to lean R after the slaugher of Dems all over the nation but predictions appear to be locked now.

Except if you look outside Kentucky it wasn't really a slaughter at all... (Dems +3-4 in NJ Assembly, Dems hold all seats in VA Senate and +1 in HoD, Dems take over Public Services Commission, re-elect Jim Hood, and maintain legislative status quo in Mississippi, take over SCOPA, etc.)

Of course this is true, but people love to exaggerate when it comes to election results.

Tonight does basically look like a draw nationwide, but the voters Edwards needs are a cultural extension of the voters Conway needed.  Granted, he doesn't need as many of them because Kentucky doesn't have a New Orleans, but this is a legitimate bad sign for him.

It may have been a "draw" last night, but Democrats picking up the Pennsylvania Supreme Court (ew, elected Supreme Court justices) and Issue 1 passing in Ohio (by a landslide) will help Democrats in the long-term.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,759
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: November 04, 2015, 03:55:58 PM »

We needed that in Pa, because Dems are narrowly behind Pat Toomey. Pa is starting to act more Democratic.
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,611
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: November 04, 2015, 05:15:09 PM »

Issue 1 just means that the map has be re-gerrymandered every 4 years and places no restrictions on congressional maps.  It's a trojan horse.  PA is big, though.

Yeah, Pennsylvania is a BFD and I'm astounded by how little attention it got by the political press.
Logged
DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,926
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: November 04, 2015, 06:14:38 PM »

Per sources on Twitter, Jay Dardenne is supposedly about to endorse Edwards.
Logged
International Brotherhood of Bernard
interstate73
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 651


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: November 04, 2015, 06:20:35 PM »

Per sources on Twitter, Jay Dardenne is supposedly about to endorse Edwards.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Logged
DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,926
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: November 04, 2015, 06:32:24 PM »

http://blogs.theadvocate.com/politicsblog/2015/11/04/john-bel-edwards-promises-major-campaign-announcement-in-governors-race/

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: November 04, 2015, 06:52:43 PM »

Dardenne will get a plum position in the Edwards administration, my guess.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: November 04, 2015, 06:54:55 PM »

^ Its interesting because just a few days ago, he ruled out running for Baton Rouge mayor.
Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: November 04, 2015, 06:59:29 PM »

I would change my rating for this race from Lean D to lean R after the slaugher of Dems all over the nation but predictions appear to be locked now.

Except if you look outside Kentucky it wasn't really a slaughter at all... (Dems +3-4 in NJ Assembly, Dems hold all seats in VA Senate and +1 in HoD, Dems take over Public Services Commission, re-elect Jim Hood, and maintain legislative status quo in Mississippi, take over SCOPA, etc.)

Of course this is true, but people love to exaggerate when it comes to election results.

Tonight does basically look like a draw nationwide, but the voters Edwards needs are a cultural extension of the voters Conway needed.  Granted, he doesn't need as many of them because Kentucky doesn't have a New Orleans, but this is a legitimate bad sign for him.

It may have been a "draw" last night, but Democrats picking up the Pennsylvania Supreme Court (ew, elected Supreme Court justices) and Issue 1 passing in Ohio (by a landslide) will help Democrats in the long-term.

Issue 1 just means that the map has be re-gerrymandered every 4 years and places no restrictions on congressional maps.  It's a trojan horse.  PA is big, though.

Yes, Issue 1 was just for state legislature districts but it did put in place limits on how much a county can be split (so no more snakes by the lake, or carving up Cleveland to hell), and there is big incentive on the commission actually agreeing on a map (i.e. coming up with a fair one). The fact that it won so decisively is giving the same group that got in on the ballot momentum to get their congressional district version on the ballot next year.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.232 seconds with 14 queries.