LA: Anzalone Liszt (D): Edwards up 12

[smoltchanov]

Probably - way too optimistic. But there is a REAL possibility that Edwards narrowly prevails. If so (in present day Louisiana) it will be an achievement.

[smoltchanov]

Probably - way too optimistic. But there is a REAL possibility that Edwards narrowly prevails. If so (in present day Louisiana) it will be an achievement.

Not really a huge achievement. Louisiana at the state level is more like Kentucky or West Virginia than it is Alabama or Mississippi. Democrats still have good fighting shots there.

Disagree. In 2011 Democrats elected Hood in Mississippi statewide, and nobody - in Louisiana. And formerly responsive to Democratic (albeit - relatively conservative) candidates Acadiana swung heavily Republican since first Obama's election. So - stick to my estimate.

[smoltchanov]

Probably - way too optimistic. But there is a REAL possibility that Edwards narrowly prevails. If so (in present day Louisiana) it will be an achievement.

Not really a huge achievement. Louisiana at the state level is more like Kentucky or West Virginia than it is Alabama or Mississippi. Democrats still have good fighting shots there.

Disagree. In 2011 Democrats elected Hood in Mississippi statewide, and nobody - in Louisiana. And formerly responsive to Democratic (albeit - relatively conservative) candidates Acadiana swung heavily Republican since first Obama's election. So - stick to my estimate.

One election /=/ precedent.

I can give many other examples. Because Black percentage in Louisiana is somewhat less, then in Mississippi, Democratic candidates need better percentage among whites to win there. And it's a problem of late: after Obama's election Louisiana's whites began vote almost identicaly with Mississippi's...

[smoltchanov]

Blacks for sure arent going to forget 2014, and how Hagen, Nunn & Landrieu lost. And how Tillis & Caasidy and Perdue hasnt passed anything beneficial since inauguration, but try to repeal Obamacare. Rural whites in KY arent voting in large numbers for Bevin in KY; thus La is in play for Edwards.

In play. But this is maximum that can be expected in Louisiana...