KY-Vox Populi (R): TIE !
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 02:13:53 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections
  2023 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  KY-Vox Populi (R): TIE !
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: KY-Vox Populi (R): TIE !  (Read 3176 times)
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 30, 2015, 02:06:35 PM »
« edited: October 30, 2015, 02:16:37 PM by TNvolunteer »

Conway (D): 44%
Bevin (R): 44%
Curtis (I): 6%

The survey measured 618 active voters, defined as registered voters who voted in either the 2012 or 2014 general elections or who have registered since 2014. Among those who definitely say they will go to the polls Tuesday, Bevin leads 46 percent to 43 percent. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

http://www.poppolling.com/

http://static.politico.com/5b/a6/17061a594edeafd7fe5348a93df1/vox-populi-kentucky-crosstabs.pdf
Logged
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,580
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2015, 02:15:18 PM »

If not even Vox Populist can show Bevin leading, he is doomed.
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,579
Venezuela


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2015, 02:15:44 PM »

Isn't Vox Populi generally considered crap?
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,952


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2015, 02:33:59 PM »

Isn't Vox Populi generally considered crap?

Yes.

They were founded in 2014 for the express purpose of boosting Republican poll numbers.
Logged
windjammer
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,512
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2015, 02:36:02 PM »

If I recall correctly, Vox Populi was showing Monica Wehby a 2 points lead in Oregon lol lol lol.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,952


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2015, 02:39:51 PM »

If I recall correctly, Vox Populi was showing Monica Wehby a 2 points lead in Oregon lol lol lol.

They were only 21 points off.
Logged
RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,717


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2015, 03:09:01 PM »

Why was a partisan poll entered into the database?
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,801
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2015, 04:17:42 PM »

Conway should win this, it comes down to 6 percent indy voten
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,801
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2015, 09:06:06 AM »

Conway will win by 5 points like the other polls showed, this poll shouldnt be considered.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2015, 02:55:45 PM »

If not even Vox Populist can show Bevin leading, he is doomed.

Pretty much, unless this year is 2014 all over again.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2015, 05:50:54 PM »

Is it weird that Bevin has been doing consistently better with younger voters, Conway with older voters? Pretty different dynamic for statewide elections if so. Doesn't look hot for Democrats in the future.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,952


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2015, 05:53:50 PM »

Is it weird that Bevin has been doing consistently better with younger voters, Conway with older voters?

He isn't though.
Logged
Frodo
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,511
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2015, 06:19:48 PM »
« Edited: November 01, 2015, 06:21:29 PM by Frodo »

Is it weird that Bevin has been doing consistently better with younger voters, Conway with older voters?

He isn't though.

He is though.

Among 18-29 year olds:

Matt Bevin: 54%
Jack Conway: 40%

Among 30-45 year olds:

Matt Bevin: 46%
Jack Conway: 42%

Among 46-65 year olds:

Matt Bevin: 42%
Jack Conway: 45%

Among those older than 65:

Matt Bevin: 40%
Jack Conway: 45%

All rounded, of course. 
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,952


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2015, 06:29:06 PM »


That's Vox Populi, one of the least reliable polls.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: November 01, 2015, 06:41:36 PM »


That's Vox Populi, one of the least reliable polls.

Western Kentucky University showed a similar pattern.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,952


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: November 01, 2015, 06:45:24 PM »


That's Vox Populi, one of the least reliable polls.

Western Kentucky University showed a similar pattern.

I do remember a poll that showed a huge trend to Conway among seniors, but that was really because Bevin endorsed requiring a drug test for Medicare. Conway still won younger voters in that poll.
Logged
Flake
Flo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,688
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: November 01, 2015, 07:46:18 PM »


That's Vox Populi, one of the least reliable polls.

Western Kentucky University showed a similar pattern.

I do remember a poll that showed a huge trend to Conway among seniors, but that was really because Bevin endorsed requiring a drug test for Medicare. Conway still won younger voters in that poll.

The question is why Bevin is doing so much better among youths than seniors, and I don't think that comment of his will affect his standing with seniors too much.
Logged
International Brotherhood of Bernard
interstate73
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 651


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: November 01, 2015, 09:31:22 PM »

In the South party demographics are usually flipped, since many old people still remember the Dixiecrat era or even the New Deal and as such are reflexively Democratic. It's the youngins in the South, especially middle-aged people, who have driven the Republican dominance there as Democratic Boomers start to die off. If I do recall, Pryor won the 65+ demographic or came close even while being demolished overall, so that should be a good indication of why this seems different from the norm.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,952


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: November 01, 2015, 09:39:20 PM »

In this election, it's probably people in the middle who are more Republican, since Bevin alienated seniors.
Logged
Flake
Flo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,688
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: November 03, 2015, 09:08:17 PM »

It's strange to say that Vox Populi was the most accurate pollster in any election.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: November 03, 2015, 09:41:06 PM »

Vox Populi = Dem hacks.
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,579
Venezuela


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: November 03, 2015, 09:55:34 PM »


That's Vox Populi, one of the least reliable polls.
Well...

If not even Vox Populist can show Bevin leading, he is doomed.

Pretty much, unless this year is 2014 all over again.
It's 2014 all over again.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: November 06, 2015, 11:42:43 AM »

I still don't understand why this forum thinks that internal or partisan polls are always junk. In this race, even FABRIZIO AND LEE had Conway up, so Vox Populi wasn't that bad.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: November 06, 2015, 01:03:51 PM »

I still don't understand why this forum thinks that internal or partisan polls are always junk. In this race, even FABRIZIO AND LEE had Conway up, so Vox Populi wasn't that bad.

It's not necessarily that they're junk, but that they can't be trusted.
Logged
Kingpoleon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,144
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: November 16, 2015, 09:09:52 PM »

Did... Did... Younger voters turn out?!
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.045 seconds with 12 queries.