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Author Topic: SUSA-GA: Trump beats Clinton  (Read 3408 times)
yeah_93
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« on: November 02, 2015, 10:26:10 am »

Trump 46
Clinton 37

Quote
Poll details: 2,075 adults from the state of Georgia were interviewed 10/15/15 through 10/26/15. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (68% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (32% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

http://www.11alive.com/story/news/politics/2015/11/02/exclusive-poll-georgia-wants-trump-president/74819370/
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Higgs
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2015, 05:45:34 pm »

No surprise
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Bigby
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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2015, 07:19:27 pm »

Not a big surprise, yeah.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2015, 07:25:48 pm »

President-elect Trump will deliver a thrashing to the establishment on November, which is why the Republican leadership desperately does not want him to win. They want a patsy like John Ellis or Marco Amnesty to lead their party to certain defeat.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2015, 11:15:39 am »

Wasn't GA supposed to be a battleground state next year? Oh, but still:
>SUSA
« Last Edit: November 06, 2015, 11:33:58 am by TNvolunteer »Logged



Cory Booker
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« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2015, 02:44:24 pm »

It was only a PPP pol that showed that, even NC was considered one too. But, Clinton has enough states to take on in Iowa , perhaps OH.
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Extrabase500
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« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2015, 08:11:27 pm »

No Dem is going to come within 10% of Georgia. Thats pretty obvious...
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Flake
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« Reply #7 on: November 09, 2015, 12:09:51 am »

No Dem is going to come within 10% of Georgia. Thats pretty obvious...

Ah, but President Obama lost Georgia by 5% and 8% in 2008 and 2012, respectfully. Back in 2014, Nunn and Carter both lost by ~8%, even in the national Republican landslide. I don't believe that any Democrat will lose by 10% Smiley
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President North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #8 on: November 09, 2015, 02:22:22 am »

The demographics aren't there to ensure a win, but they are there to ensure 45%-46%, which means a 6%-9% Trump victory when you factor in third parties.

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« Reply #9 on: November 10, 2015, 08:56:20 pm »

Third parties? Not likely to amount to much.
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« Reply #10 on: December 06, 2015, 03:32:08 pm »

Any poll that doesn't show a near dead-even race in Georgia at this point is garbage. Why? Polls start off with candidates running neck and neck due to the polarity of the state (with a slight R advantage, usually) until the "independents" in the final two weeks "make up their minds" and break heavily - usually 3/1 - to the Republican.
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« Reply #11 on: December 06, 2015, 03:37:53 pm »

Any poll that doesn't show a near dead-even race in Georgia at this point is garbage. Why? Polls start off with candidates running neck and neck due to the polarity of the state (with a slight R advantage, usually) until the "independents" in the final two weeks "make up their minds" and break heavily - usually 3/1 - to the Republican.

I dunno, I think Trump is likely to outperform with independents everywhere and lock them up pretty early. His problem is getting the GOP out for him.
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« Reply #12 on: December 06, 2015, 08:22:45 pm »

Any poll that doesn't show a near dead-even race in Georgia at this point is garbage. Why? Polls start off with candidates running neck and neck due to the polarity of the state (with a slight R advantage, usually) until the "independents" in the final two weeks "make up their minds" and break heavily - usually 3/1 - to the Republican.

Trajectory of the 2014 Senate Race /=/ trajectory of a normal race in GA.
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« Reply #13 on: December 06, 2015, 08:47:58 pm »

Any poll that doesn't show a near dead-even race in Georgia at this point is garbage. Why? Polls start off with candidates running neck and neck due to the polarity of the state (with a slight R advantage, usually) until the "independents" in the final two weeks "make up their minds" and break heavily - usually 3/1 - to the Republican.

Trajectory of the 2014 Senate Race /=/ trajectory of a normal race in GA.

But that is the trajectory of a normal race in Georgia, isn't it?
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Wulfric
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« Reply #14 on: December 06, 2015, 08:58:36 pm »

Any poll that doesn't show a near dead-even race in Georgia at this point is garbage. Why? Polls start off with candidates running neck and neck due to the polarity of the state (with a slight R advantage, usually) until the "independents" in the final two weeks "make up their minds" and break heavily - usually 3/1 - to the Republican.

Trajectory of the 2014 Senate Race /=/ trajectory of a normal race in GA.

But that is the trajectory of a normal race in Georgia, isn't it?

SUSA had Obama 6 points behind Gingrich and 7 points behind Romney in Dec. 2011. Mason Dixon had Obama much further behind at the same time.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9f7c5d5d-4d53-4675-af4b-65290e7797d2
http://jacksonville.com/news/florida/2011-12-18/story/georgia-republicans-prefer-newt-gingrich-poll-shows

« Last Edit: December 06, 2015, 09:00:13 pm by Wulfric »Logged

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'18 House Rating: Lean D (3/14: Toss-Up ---> Lean D)
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