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  IA PrimD: PPP: Hillary more than doubles Sanders
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Author Topic: IA PrimD: PPP: Hillary more than doubles Sanders  (Read 3542 times)
Dr. RI
realisticidealist
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« on: November 02, 2015, 04:41:11 pm »

57% Hillary
25% Sanders
7% O'Malley
1% Lessig

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_110215.pdf
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Skye
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2015, 04:42:54 pm »

What happened, Bernie?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2015, 04:47:53 pm »

Feel the Hill.
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Brewer
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2015, 04:48:22 pm »

#HillYes!
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2015, 04:49:03 pm »

Change since PPP poll ending 9/20

Clinton +14
O'Malley +4
Sanders +3
Lessig +1

not polled this time
Biden -17
Webb -3
Chafee -2
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Deranged California Suburbanite
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2015, 04:58:33 pm »

O'Malleymentum


The debate give Hillary a chance to define herself and the Benghazi committee failed to hurt her.
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jfern
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2015, 05:20:37 pm »

The polls in Iowa have really been bi-modal. And naturally, PPP sides with the colleges that have ridiculous Hillary leads.

32-41 point leads:
PPP
Monmouth University
Loras College

3-11 point leads:
CBS/YouGov
Quinnipiac
Des Moines Register/Bloomberg/Selzer (rated A+ by 538)
NBC/WSJ/Marist
Gravis Marketing/One America News
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Beat-Em-All Beto
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« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2015, 05:26:35 pm »

Suck it BernBots
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2015, 05:30:00 pm »

Yay!

Plus, the stronger she finishes in Iowa, the more likely the punditry will drone on and on about Bernie's underperformance. Hopefully the momentum will carry my girl to a win in New Hampshire and stop this Bernie uprising in its tracks. Good news indeed!
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Ebsy
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2015, 05:31:10 pm »

The polls in Iowa have really been bi-modal. And naturally, PPP sides with the colleges that have ridiculous Hillary leads.

32-41 point leads:
PPP
Monmouth University
Loras College

3-11 point leads:
CBS/YouGov
Quinnipiac
Des Moines Register/Bloomberg/Selzer (rated A+ by 538)
NBC/WSJ/Marist
Gravis Marketing/One America News
>Listing Gravis and Quinnipiajunk as evidence
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2015, 05:39:42 pm »

The polls in Iowa have really been bi-modal. And naturally, PPP sides with the colleges that have ridiculous Hillary leads.

32-41 point leads:
PPP
Monmouth University
Loras College

3-11 point leads:
CBS/YouGov
Quinnipiac
Des Moines Register/Bloomberg/Selzer (rated A+ by 538)
NBC/WSJ/Marist
Gravis Marketing/One America News

You left out the fact that the first three are also the most recent. All the others were conducted before Biden's announcement/the Benghazi hearing, and the last two were even from before the debate.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2015, 05:41:40 pm »

Expecting jfern to be intellectually honest is patently absurd. Who needs facts when you can #feelthebern?
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Skye
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« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2015, 05:44:30 pm »

The polls in Iowa have really been bi-modal. And naturally, PPP sides with the colleges that have ridiculous Hillary leads.

32-41 point leads:
PPP
Monmouth University
Loras College

3-11 point leads:
CBS/YouGov
Quinnipiac
Des Moines Register/Bloomberg/Selzer (rated A+ by 538)
NBC/WSJ/Marist
Gravis Marketing/One America News
>Listing Gravis and Quinnipiajunk as evidence
Exactly when did Quinnipiac began to be considered junk?
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2015, 05:47:02 pm »

Yay!

Plus, the stronger she finishes in Iowa, the more likely the punditry will drone on and on about Bernie's underperformance. Hopefully the momentum will carry my girl to a win in New Hampshire and stop this Bernie uprising in its tracks. Good news indeed!

If Hillary wins Iowa, it's checkmate. Iowa should be one of the top 10 best states for Sanders considering its demographics and the fact that it's a caucus rather than a primary. If he can't win there, it stretches credulity to suggest he has a path to the nomination. Sanders needs both IA and NH for buffer against the Super Tuesday curbstomping.
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Deranged California Suburbanite
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« Reply #14 on: November 02, 2015, 05:58:09 pm »

Yay!

Plus, the stronger she finishes in Iowa, the more likely the punditry will drone on and on about Bernie's underperformance. Hopefully the momentum will carry my girl to a win in New Hampshire and stop this Bernie uprising in its tracks. Good news indeed!

If Hillary wins Iowa, it's checkmate. Iowa should be one of the top 10 best states for Sanders considering its demographics and the fact that it's a caucus rather than a primary. If he can't win there, it stretches credulity to suggest he has a path to the nomination. Sanders needs both IA and NH for buffer against the Super Tuesday curbstomping.

Sanders supporter here. Yeah, without at least an even record in the first 4 states, Bernie would have to get extremely lucky to win anything beyond Vermont on Super Tuesday. There's some states that he could break 35% in on Super Tuesday, but that doesn't mean anything when there's only one opponent.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2015, 06:04:45 pm »

O'Malley has more support in Iowa than Jeb!
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2015, 06:24:12 pm »

The polls in Iowa have really been bi-modal. And naturally, PPP sides with the colleges that have ridiculous Hillary leads.

32-41 point leads:
PPP
Monmouth University
Loras College

3-11 point leads:
CBS/YouGov
Quinnipiac
Des Moines Register/Bloomberg/Selzer (rated A+ by 538)
NBC/WSJ/Marist
Gravis Marketing/One America News

You left out the fact that the first three are also the most recent. All the others were conducted before Biden's announcement/the Benghazi hearing, and the last two were even from before the debate.

All of those polls didn't include Biden though, so it would mean that Clinton's lead increased by 20ish points (almost) solely due to the Benghazi hearing. That just seems odd given that the average caucus goer probably didn't even watch the hearing.
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jfern
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« Reply #17 on: November 02, 2015, 06:26:15 pm »

The polls in Iowa have really been bi-modal. And naturally, PPP sides with the colleges that have ridiculous Hillary leads.

32-41 point leads:
PPP
Monmouth University
Loras College

3-11 point leads:
CBS/YouGov
Quinnipiac
Des Moines Register/Bloomberg/Selzer (rated A+ by 538)
NBC/WSJ/Marist
Gravis Marketing/One America News

You left out the fact that the first three are also the most recent. All the others were conducted before Biden's announcement/the Benghazi hearing, and the last two were even from before the debate.

Except for Gravis, none of these polls had Biden. The first 3 I mentioned are post-debate and no Biden.

And no, opinion didn't magically shift tens of points in Hillary's favor because of Benghazi. And she didn't gain any from Biden not running from polls that didn't have Biden. The post Biden not running and Benghazi hearing national IBD/TIPP poll with Hillary up 48-33 is the closest it's ever been in a poll without Biden.
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YPestis25
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« Reply #18 on: November 02, 2015, 06:43:27 pm »

We can't really cite IBD/TPP as a credible poll. I agree that these Iowa polls are showing two different races, but nationally, Clinton is pretty clearly up 20-30.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #19 on: November 02, 2015, 06:50:54 pm »

The polls in Iowa have really been bi-modal. And naturally, PPP sides with the colleges that have ridiculous Hillary leads.

32-41 point leads:
PPP
Monmouth University
Loras College

3-11 point leads:
CBS/YouGov
Quinnipiac
Des Moines Register/Bloomberg/Selzer (rated A+ by 538)
NBC/WSJ/Marist
Gravis Marketing/One America News

You left out the fact that the first three are also the most recent. All the others were conducted before Biden's announcement/the Benghazi hearing, and the last two were even from before the debate.

Except for Gravis, none of these polls had Biden. The first 3 I mentioned are post-debate and no Biden.

And no, opinion didn't magically shift tens of points in Hillary's favor because of Benghazi. And she didn't gain any from Biden not running from polls that didn't have Biden. The post Biden not running and Benghazi hearing national IBD/TIPP poll with Hillary up 48-33 is the closest it's ever been in a poll without Biden.

Why do you keep citing the IBD/TIPP poll? They are not some gold standard pollster, they are rated average by fivethirtyeight and have a history of terrible results.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #20 on: November 02, 2015, 06:55:18 pm »

The polls in Iowa have really been bi-modal. And naturally, PPP sides with the colleges that have ridiculous Hillary leads.

32-41 point leads:
PPP
Monmouth University
Loras College

3-11 point leads:
CBS/YouGov
Quinnipiac
Des Moines Register/Bloomberg/Selzer (rated A+ by 538)
NBC/WSJ/Marist
Gravis Marketing/One America News

You left out the fact that the first three are also the most recent. All the others were conducted before Biden's announcement/the Benghazi hearing, and the last two were even from before the debate.

Except for Gravis, none of these polls had Biden. The first 3 I mentioned are post-debate and no Biden.

And no, opinion didn't magically shift tens of points in Hillary's favor because of Benghazi. And she didn't gain any from Biden not running from polls that didn't have Biden. The post Biden not running and Benghazi hearing national IBD/TIPP poll with Hillary up 48-33 is the closest it's ever been in a poll without Biden.

Why do you keep citing the IBD/TIPP poll? They are not some gold standard pollster, they are rated average by fivethirtyeight and have a history of terrible results.

Bernard Sanders supporters have to follow their dear leader into the intellectually dishonest well he has made for them. Socialism? that's just government spending on hospitals and roads!!! Polls showing Shillary the Witch ahead? BIASED!!! The post-debate interweb polls showed Bernard winning because we voted a million times for him, please ignore scientific polls that showed Hillary winning.

This is the Anti-GMO crowd. Falling into their little rabbit hole will only cause you a life of pain.
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jfern
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« Reply #21 on: November 02, 2015, 07:09:26 pm »

The polls in Iowa have really been bi-modal. And naturally, PPP sides with the colleges that have ridiculous Hillary leads.

32-41 point leads:
PPP
Monmouth University
Loras College

3-11 point leads:
CBS/YouGov
Quinnipiac
Des Moines Register/Bloomberg/Selzer (rated A+ by 538)
NBC/WSJ/Marist
Gravis Marketing/One America News

You left out the fact that the first three are also the most recent. All the others were conducted before Biden's announcement/the Benghazi hearing, and the last two were even from before the debate.

Except for Gravis, none of these polls had Biden. The first 3 I mentioned are post-debate and no Biden.

And no, opinion didn't magically shift tens of points in Hillary's favor because of Benghazi. And she didn't gain any from Biden not running from polls that didn't have Biden. The post Biden not running and Benghazi hearing national IBD/TIPP poll with Hillary up 48-33 is the closest it's ever been in a poll without Biden.

Why do you keep citing the IBD/TIPP poll? They are not some gold standard pollster, they are rated average by fivethirtyeight and have a history of terrible results.

If things are going so well for Hillary, then why did a poll just come out that is the closest margin ever without Biden? The other 2 of the last 3 polls aren't too bad for Bernie either.

NBC/SurveyMonkey   10/27 - 10/29   1,226 RV   50   30   1   1   -   -   -   12
IBD/TIPP   10/24 - 10/29   356 RV   48   33   2   -   -   -   -   -
Ipsos/Reuters   10/24 - 10/28   676 A   53   33
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Maxwell
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« Reply #22 on: November 02, 2015, 07:18:22 pm »

Are you citing REUTERS?

Trash poster!
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #23 on: November 02, 2015, 07:25:39 pm »

The polls in Iowa have really been bi-modal. And naturally, PPP sides with the colleges that have ridiculous Hillary leads.

32-41 point leads:
PPP
Monmouth University
Loras College

3-11 point leads:
CBS/YouGov
Quinnipiac
Des Moines Register/Bloomberg/Selzer (rated A+ by 538)
NBC/WSJ/Marist
Gravis Marketing/One America News

You left out the fact that the first three are also the most recent. All the others were conducted before Biden's announcement/the Benghazi hearing, and the last two were even from before the debate.

Except for Gravis, none of these polls had Biden. The first 3 I mentioned are post-debate and no Biden.

And no, opinion didn't magically shift tens of points in Hillary's favor because of Benghazi. And she didn't gain any from Biden not running from polls that didn't have Biden. The post Biden not running and Benghazi hearing national IBD/TIPP poll with Hillary up 48-33 is the closest it's ever been in a poll without Biden.

Why do you keep citing the IBD/TIPP poll? They are not some gold standard pollster, they are rated average by fivethirtyeight and have a history of terrible results.

If things are going so well for Hillary, then why did a poll just come out that is the closest margin ever without Biden? The other 2 of the last 3 polls aren't too bad for Bernie either.

NBC/SurveyMonkey   10/27 - 10/29   1,226 RV   50   30   1   1   -   -   -   12
IBD/TIPP   10/24 - 10/29   356 RV   48   33   2   -   -   -   -   -
Ipsos/Reuters   10/24 - 10/28   676 A   53   33

I didnt even bring up Hillary...
So your just gonna ignore my question?
What makes IBD/TIPP so special that you insist on citing them as a gold standard pollster when there at best average and at worst "Inept and Biased"?

 
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jfern
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« Reply #24 on: November 02, 2015, 07:55:47 pm »

The polls in Iowa have really been bi-modal. And naturally, PPP sides with the colleges that have ridiculous Hillary leads.

32-41 point leads:
PPP
Monmouth University
Loras College

3-11 point leads:
CBS/YouGov
Quinnipiac
Des Moines Register/Bloomberg/Selzer (rated A+ by 538)
NBC/WSJ/Marist
Gravis Marketing/One America News

You left out the fact that the first three are also the most recent. All the others were conducted before Biden's announcement/the Benghazi hearing, and the last two were even from before the debate.

Except for Gravis, none of these polls had Biden. The first 3 I mentioned are post-debate and no Biden.

And no, opinion didn't magically shift tens of points in Hillary's favor because of Benghazi. And she didn't gain any from Biden not running from polls that didn't have Biden. The post Biden not running and Benghazi hearing national IBD/TIPP poll with Hillary up 48-33 is the closest it's ever been in a poll without Biden.

Why do you keep citing the IBD/TIPP poll? They are not some gold standard pollster, they are rated average by fivethirtyeight and have a history of terrible results.

If things are going so well for Hillary, then why did a poll just come out that is the closest margin ever without Biden? The other 2 of the last 3 polls aren't too bad for Bernie either.

NBC/SurveyMonkey   10/27 - 10/29   1,226 RV   50   30   1   1   -   -   -   12
IBD/TIPP   10/24 - 10/29   356 RV   48   33   2   -   -   -   -   -
Ipsos/Reuters   10/24 - 10/28   676 A   53   33

I didnt even bring up Hillary...
So your just gonna ignore my question?
What makes IBD/TIPP so special that you insist on citing them as a gold standard pollster when there at best average and at worst "Inept and Biased"?

You made the claim that Hillary is suddenly doing a lot better. I first mentioned IBD/TIPP, but then also added the other 2 of the last 3 national polls, and they show that she's not doing any better than earlier polls that included Biden. No, I never claimed IBD/TIPP was the gold standard.

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