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  LA: WVLA/JMC: Edwards at 52%, Vitter still in trouble
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Author Topic: LA: WVLA/JMC: Edwards at 52%, Vitter still in trouble  (Read 4046 times)
Miles
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« on: November 02, 2015, 05:24:49 pm »

Article.

Edwards (D) - 52%
Vitter (R) - 32%
Not sure - 16%

With leaners:

Edwards - 54%
Vitter - 35%
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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2015, 05:28:06 pm »

WOW!!!!
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2015, 05:30:05 pm »

Img


...
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Ebsy
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2015, 05:34:13 pm »

Changing to Lean D. Congratulations Governor Edwards!
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2015, 05:39:46 pm »

I'm still not believing this sorry.

Yes I m pessimistic and I believe Bevin will win as well Tongue
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2015, 05:42:12 pm »

But, this is still a Likely Republican race. Sure.
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Zache
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2015, 05:47:02 pm »

Holy crap.
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Miles
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« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2015, 05:48:27 pm »

I'll also add that JMC mostly does work for Republicans.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2015, 05:51:37 pm »
« Edited: November 02, 2015, 05:54:54 pm by MW Senator Max »

I like how so many people here are just into conventionial wisdom that they will literally throw out polls with 20 point leads.

David Vitter has not led in a poll head to head with John Bel Edwards since September, Vitter has less than three weeks to make up a giant gap.

LEAN D AT LEAST!
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2015, 05:52:53 pm »

I like how so many people here are just into conventionial wisdom that they will literally throw out polls with 20 point leads.
Well Yes Tongue
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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2015, 05:53:18 pm »

But, this is still a Likely Republican race. Sure.

All the pundits have moved it to Lean R or Toss-Up now.
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Miles
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2015, 05:58:01 pm »

Crosstabs:

Img



Edwards could very well end up carrying LA-03, and likely LA-06, if these crosstabs hold up.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2015, 06:10:39 pm »

I like how so many people here are just into conventionial wisdom that they will literally throw out polls with 20 point leads.

David Vitter has not led in a poll head to head with John Bel Edwards since September, Vitter has less than three weeks to make up a giant gap.

LEAN D AT LEAST!

PTSD from 2014. Wink
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Miles
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« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2015, 06:12:45 pm »

Edwards gets 25% of Republicans and only loses whites by 3%:

Img
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Wolverine22
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« Reply #14 on: November 02, 2015, 06:13:40 pm »

That's going to feel mighty good to open Wikipedia and see Louisiana in blue.
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Olawakandi
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« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2015, 07:04:27 pm »

No runoff, that's great. Clean sweep.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2015, 07:16:17 pm »

No runoff, that's great. Clean sweep.

Are you a real person?
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Miles
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« Reply #17 on: November 02, 2015, 07:18:07 pm »

The Lake Charles numbers are really surprising.  Is Edwards Cajun?

Actually he's not.

Dardenne did well in Calcasieu Parish, so perhaps those voters are moving to Edwards.
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Olawakandi
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« Reply #18 on: November 02, 2015, 07:29:44 pm »

This is facinating, if Edwards beat the runoffs, it will indeed be a great night for Dems. Sorry Mitch Landrieu, you would have indeed been a great Gov.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #19 on: November 02, 2015, 07:54:25 pm »

I like how so many people here are just into conventionial wisdom that they will literally throw out polls with 20 point leads.

David Vitter has not led in a poll head to head with John Bel Edwards since September, Vitter has less than three weeks to make up a giant gap.

LEAN D AT LEAST!
Sadly. I'll change it to lean D if the week of the election the Edwards maintains leads like this.
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Olawakandi
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« Reply #20 on: November 02, 2015, 08:06:12 pm »

If Dems win La, a state they were supposed to lose, may be a sign for 2016. Even 2017, looks good, where Va gov looks like it may well be a Democratic hold after McAuliffe.
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Flake
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« Reply #21 on: November 02, 2015, 09:28:55 pm »

New Poll: Louisiana Governor by JMC Enterprises on 2015-10-31

Summary: D: 52%, R: 32%, U: 16%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Khristie Kreme Donuts
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« Reply #22 on: November 02, 2015, 11:11:03 pm »

I find it very difficult to take the Sabatos and Rothenbergs very seriously when they're calling this Lean or Likely R when this race is probably closer to Safe D than Lean R at this point. I would agree with people saying this won't hold and Vitter will pull through if it were semi-close, but a 20 point lead is pretty much beyond doubt. It'd be one thing if he had 6 months to pull the party together before the big day, but he has 3 weeks. He just doesn't have time.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #23 on: November 02, 2015, 11:56:29 pm »

If Dems win La, a state they were supposed to lose, may be a sign for 2016. Even 2017, looks good, where Va gov looks like it may well be a Democratic hold after McAuliffe.

Yeah, 2014 was also a great indicator for 2015....
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #24 on: November 03, 2015, 01:28:15 am »

Too good to be true. And Holden winning and Caldwell losing? And Edwards winning in Lafayette area? Sincerely - i doubt...
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