LA: MRI: Edwards over 50%, leading by at least 11%

[DrScholl]

The problem with comparing this with Kentucky is that there are several polls showing that even if the undecideds to break towards Vitter, it still is not enough for him to win, he actually would have to flip support from Edwards. Scandal tarred candidates tend not to flip support that easily.

[DrScholl]

I would change my rating for this race from Lean D to lean R after the slaugher of Dems all over the nation but predictions appear to be locked now.

Except if you look outside Kentucky it wasn't really a slaughter at all... (Dems +3-4 in NJ Assembly, Dems hold all seats in VA Senate and +1 in HoD, Dems take over Public Services Commission, re-elect Jim Hood, and maintain legislative status quo in Mississippi, take over SCOPA, etc.)

Of course this is true, but people love to exaggerate when it comes to election results.

[DrScholl]

I would change my rating for this race from Lean D to lean R after the slaugher of Dems all over the nation but predictions appear to be locked now.

Except if you look outside Kentucky it wasn't really a slaughter at all... (Dems +3-4 in NJ Assembly, Dems hold all seats in VA Senate and +1 in HoD, Dems take over Public Services Commission, re-elect Jim Hood, and maintain legislative status quo in Mississippi, take over SCOPA, etc.)

Of course this is true, but people love to exaggerate when it comes to election results.

Tonight does basically look like a draw nationwide, but the voters Edwards needs are a cultural extension of the voters Conway needed.  Granted, he doesn't need as many of them because Kentucky doesn't have a New Orleans, but this is a legitimate bad sign for him.

One doesn't really have to do with the other. Edwards is running against a scandal tarred officeholder for an open seat, who is in turn overshadowed by an outgoing Governor who is heavily disliked and accomplished nearly nothing positive.

[DrScholl]

Per sources on Twitter, Jay Dardenne is supposedly about to endorse Edwards.

[DrScholl]

http://blogs.theadvocate.com/politicsblog/2015/11/04/john-bel-edwards-promises-major-campaign-announcement-in-governors-race/

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