IA- CNN: Clinton and Trump leads

[weixiaobao]

http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/06/politics/hillary-clinton-outsiders-iowa-caucus/

Trump 25
Carson 23
Rubio 13,
Cruz 11,
Bush 5,
Fiorina 4,
Jindal 4,
Christie 3,
Huckabee 2, Kasich 2, Paul 2, Graham 2
Santorum 0,  Pataki 0


Clinton 55, Sanders 37, O'Malley 3

[Mr. Morden]

Who leads among…?
men: Trump
women: Carson
under age 50: Trump
age 50-64: Trump
over age 65: Carson
under $50k income: Carson
over $50k income: Trump
no college: Trump
attended college: Carson
Republicans: Carson
Independents: Trump
conservatives: Carson
moderates: Trump
white Evangelicals: Carson

[BlueSwan]

Polls are all over the place at the moment regarding whether Trump or Carson leads.

[weixiaobao]

So 4 of the recent polls showed Trump leading.  2 of the 3 that Trump lead, it is close enough to be a tie.  I guess this meant Monmouth where Carson leads by 8 is a huge outlier in this case.

I think these 4 were post debates.  Though, the jury is still on Gravis if that was post debate or not.  8/31 or 8/26.  But yeah.

Before debate, Carson leads in every poll.  Except for YouGov where it is a tie.

So the trend is, Trump had caught up to Carson's lead.

[Why]

So 4 of the recent polls showed Trump leading.  2 of the 3 that Trump lead, it is close enough to be a tie.  I guess this meant Monmouth where Carson leads by 8 is a huge outlier in this case.

I think these 4 were post debates.  Though, the jury is still on Gravis if that was post debate or not.  8/31 or 8/26.  But yeah.

Before debate, Carson leads in every poll.  Except for YouGov where it is a tie.

So the trend is, Trump had caught up to Carson's lead.

A good summary however a small lead of a few points is not really of much significance this far from the actual polls. The trend towards Trump is perhaps more telling but we need to see if it continues.
Overall the big picture is Trump and Carson significantly ahead of Rubio and Cruz who are ahead of the rest. So these four are looking to be the best chances to win Iowa.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Clinton 55, Sanders 37, O'Malley 3

BUT THE IBD/TIPP POLL!?!?!

[Hydera]

Clinton 55, Sanders 37, O'Malley 3

BUT THE IBD/TIPP POLL!?!?!

b-b-but.... muh feel the bern!!!

[Lief 🗽]

Looks like, despite the moaning and poll unskewing from the Berniebots, those polls showing huge Clinton leads in Iowa have been vindicated.

[RI]

New Poll: Iowa President by CNN/ORC on 2015-11-04

Summary:

Trump:	25%
Carson:	23%
Rubio:	13%
Cruz:	11%
Other:	25%
Undecided:	3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[RI]

New Poll: Iowa President by CNN/ORC on 2015-11-04

Summary:

Clinton:	55%
Sanders:	37%
Other:	5%
Undecided:	3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Eraserhead]

Looks like, despite the moaning and poll unskewing from the Berniebots, those polls showing huge Clinton leads in Iowa have been vindicated.

Pretty big difference between Clinton leading by 18% and Clinton leading by 32%-41%. This seems a lot more realistic.

[Ebsy]

When you are attempting to unskew polls to show you are down by 20 points instead of 30, something has gone terribly wrong.

[Eraserhead]

When you are attempting to unskew polls to show you are down by 20 points instead of 30, something has gone terribly wrong.

I'm not "unskewing" anything if that's directed toward me.

[Angel of Death]

I guess insulting Iowa finally paid off.

[ccapehartusarmyINF.(ret)]

the rest of the GOP candidates should pack up an go home they do not have a chance in hell

[King]

Both parties are coming to their senses and coming back to the only two serious candidates in the race CLINTON and TRUMP.

[Ljube]

Both parties are coming to their senses and coming back to the only two serious candidates in the race CLINTON and TRUMP.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Both parties are coming to their senses and coming back to the only two serious candidates in the race CLINTON and TRUMP.

If Trump is the nominee, Clinton is much stronger than him, and will beat him. Carson or Rubio are even with Clinton and will keep it close. TRUMP will be a heavy underdog.