LA Times/USC/Survey Monkey: Clinton leads by 16 in CA, by 20 nationally

[Mr. Morden]

LA Times/USC/Survey Monkey polls of California and of the whole country:

http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/la-na-presidential-poll-20151108-story.html

[Mehmentum]

+20 nationally is pretty close to Clinton's average right now.  I buy it.

[Holmes]

48 and 28 seem a bit low for both of them but the margin is realistic.

[RI]

Results by CA region

Central Valley: Clinton 47, Sanders 36
SF Bay Area: Clinton 55, Sanders 32
LA County: Clinton 57, Sanders 24
OC/San Diego: Clinton 39, Sanders 31
Inland Empire: Clinton 32, Sanders 28

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

22% undecided for their national poll is kind of high.

Also LOL at how they have 5 regions for the state that don't cover everything. Where's Santa Barbara? Lake Tahoe?  Humbolt county? Yeah.

[Eraserhead]

I'd like to see the racial breakdown in California.

[RI]

I'd like to see racial breakdown in California.

White: Clinton 42, Sanders 40
Black: Clinton 54, Sanders 17
Hispanic: Clinton 49, Sanders 24
Asian: Clinton 56, Sanders 32
Other: Clinton 62, Sanders 23

[Figueira]

Results by CA region

Central Valley: Clinton 47, Sanders 36
SF Bay Area: Clinton 55, Sanders 32
LA County: Clinton 57, Sanders 24
OC/San Diego: Clinton 39, Sanders 31
Inland Empire: Clinton 32, Sanders 28

I'd think Sanders would be doing better in the Bay Area, at least compared to other regions.

[RI]

Results by CA region

Central Valley: Clinton 47, Sanders 36
SF Bay Area: Clinton 55, Sanders 32
LA County: Clinton 57, Sanders 24
OC/San Diego: Clinton 39, Sanders 31
Inland Empire: Clinton 32, Sanders 28

I'd think Sanders would be doing better in the Bay Area, at least compared to other regions.

LOTS of minorities in the Bay Area, and Clinton cleans up among them.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Results by CA region

Central Valley: Clinton 47, Sanders 36
SF Bay Area: Clinton 55, Sanders 32
LA County: Clinton 57, Sanders 24
OC/San Diego: Clinton 39, Sanders 31
Inland Empire: Clinton 32, Sanders 28

I'd think Sanders would be doing better in the Bay Area, at least compared to other regions.

LOTS of minorities in the Bay Area, and Clinton cleans up among them.

Winning Asians 56-32 isn't really cleaning up.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Results by CA region

Central Valley: Clinton 47, Sanders 36
SF Bay Area: Clinton 55, Sanders 32
LA County: Clinton 57, Sanders 24
OC/San Diego: Clinton 39, Sanders 31
Inland Empire: Clinton 32, Sanders 28

I'd think Sanders would be doing better in the Bay Area, at least compared to other regions.

LOTS of minorities in the Bay Area, and Clinton cleans up among them.

Winning Asians 56-32 isn't really cleaning up.

Probably a group with A HUGE age-gap.

[RI]

Results by CA region

Central Valley: Clinton 47, Sanders 36
SF Bay Area: Clinton 55, Sanders 32
LA County: Clinton 57, Sanders 24
OC/San Diego: Clinton 39, Sanders 31
Inland Empire: Clinton 32, Sanders 28

I'd think Sanders would be doing better in the Bay Area, at least compared to other regions.

LOTS of minorities in the Bay Area, and Clinton cleans up among them.

Winning Asians 56-32 isn't really cleaning up.

The Bay Area is more Hispanic than Asian (albeit ever so slightly-- 23.6% to 23.5%).

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Results by CA region

Central Valley: Clinton 47, Sanders 36
SF Bay Area: Clinton 55, Sanders 32
LA County: Clinton 57, Sanders 24
OC/San Diego: Clinton 39, Sanders 31
Inland Empire: Clinton 32, Sanders 28

I'd think Sanders would be doing better in the Bay Area, at least compared to other regions.

LOTS of minorities in the Bay Area, and Clinton cleans up among them.

Winning Asians 56-32 isn't really cleaning up.

The Bay Area is more Hispanic than Asian (albeit ever so slightly-- 23.6% to 23.5%).

Probably more Asian than Hispanic voters.

[RI]

Results by CA region

Central Valley: Clinton 47, Sanders 36
SF Bay Area: Clinton 55, Sanders 32
LA County: Clinton 57, Sanders 24
OC/San Diego: Clinton 39, Sanders 31
Inland Empire: Clinton 32, Sanders 28

I'd think Sanders would be doing better in the Bay Area, at least compared to other regions.

LOTS of minorities in the Bay Area, and Clinton cleans up among them.

Winning Asians 56-32 isn't really cleaning up.

The Bay Area is more Hispanic than Asian (albeit ever so slightly-- 23.6% to 23.5%).

Probably more Asian than Hispanic voters.

Sure, but more Asians will vote in the Republican primary than Hispanics proportionally.

Regardless, it's all a matter of semantics: I'd consider a 24-point lead "cleaning up" but you clearly don't.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I didn't realize that there were that many more white Democrats than Hispanic Democrats in the Central Valley. Given the large lead that Hillary has with Hispanics, I would have thought that she would be doing better in the Central Valley.

[RI]

I didn't realize that there were that many more white Democrats than Hispanic Democrats in the Central Valley. Given the large lead that Hillary has with Hispanics, I would have thought that she would be doing better in the Central Valley.

They use a pretty broad definition of the Central Valley, including places like Shasta and El Dorado counties, both of which probably support Sanders.

[CapoteMonster]

As someone who lives in the Bay Area I can assure you the assumptions about there being a huge Clinton-Sanders age gap are quite accurate. I see a good deal of Ready for Hilary bumper stickers around here yet everyone at my high school supports Sanders. Ultimately Sanders would need need to improve his deficiencies in a area that on paper should be his strength of he wants a California victory.

[CapoteMonster]

I didn't realize that there were that many more white Democrats than Hispanic Democrats in the Central Valley. Given the large lead that Hillary has with Hispanics, I would have thought that she would be doing better in the Central Valley.

Sanders is doing a lot better among California Hispanics than I thought. My guess is that the Hispanics here are a lot more secular than in places like Florida.

[Eraserhead]

Yeah, it looks like Sanders is doing better with minorities in general in California than he is in most other states.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I didn't realize that there were that many more white Democrats than Hispanic Democrats in the Central Valley. Given the large lead that Hillary has with Hispanics, I would have thought that she would be doing better in the Central Valley.

Sanders is doing a lot better among California Hispanics than I thought. My guess is that the Hispanics here are a lot more secular than in places like Florida.

I think Bernie is doing a lot better with Hispanics than blacks in general.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I didn't realize that there were that many more white Democrats than Hispanic Democrats in the Central Valley. Given the large lead that Hillary has with Hispanics, I would have thought that she would be doing better in the Central Valley.

They use a pretty broad definition of the Central Valley, including places like Shasta and El Dorado counties, both of which probably support Sanders.

That could be it. I'm looking into past Dem primaries in CA to try to get an idea of where Sanders may be strong. The "Other" area might be quite good for him. A lot of the Sierra counties (including Sierra County) went for Obama in 2008 and have largely white populations (which would probably be more inclined to vote for Bernie); it would also include places like Humboldt and Santa Barbara Counties.

If the primary was held earlier than June, I bet that Sanders would win several counties. I doubt that he'll win any this time, but who knows? Maybe Alpine county, with its average of 200ish Democratic primary voters will surprise us.


Edit: I looked through the primaries for the last several elections and I could really find anything that seemed to be a decent fit. At this point, Sanders doesn't have the minority vote that Obama had. Maybe I can compare it to Kucinich and Edwards in 2004? I would try, but it seems silly when it probably won't matter.