What does a narrow Trump victory look like?

[RFayette]

My current read on this election is that if Trump is the nominee, his only real chance of winning (and this applies to some extent to other GOP nominees, as well) is either some catastrophic foreign event (i.e. Iran bombing Israel, discovered with nukes) or a recession.  Nonetheless, it's not completely impossible for these things to happen, so a Trump victory is possible.

My question is:  what would the electoral map look like for such a circumstance?

Trump's appeal among white college graduates (as well as Hispanics) seems to be well below average for a Republican, while he appears to do quite strong among working-class whites and might overperform a generic Republican with blacks. 


My thought is a narrow Trump win would look like the 2012 map plus the following states:
-Iowa
-Ohio
-Pennsylvania

But this would only get Trump to 250 electoral votes.  He would have to win at least 2 of {Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Virginia, Florida}.  I'm assuming that Trump is hopeless in NM/CO/NV because of Hispanics and college-educated whites (for Colorado). 

Within the five states I mentioned, which two would be most likely to flip?  Also (sorry, TNVolunteer), would NH have any chance of flipping under Trump?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Trump will dominate NH and VA. I posted my map yesterday already.

[Zache]

 I really doubt the public face of the birther conspiracy will do any better with blacks than the Generic R.

Trump will dominate NH and VA. I posted my map yesterday already.

What's Trump appeal in NH and VA?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Trump will dominate NH and VA. I posted my map yesterday already.

What's Trump appeal in NH and VA?

Nh: Rich
Va: nationalism, loce of african-Americans

Can you tell me what the Obama appeal is in NC and FL and IN? Sometimes you just can't vote against greatness

[/]

271-267

The Donald has a great relationship with Hispanics.

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

If a recession were to happen....

Businessman Donald Trump/Senator Ted Cruz: 52.1% 352
Former SoS Hillary Clinton/HUD Secretary Julian Castro: 47.3% 186


Normal Victory:

Businessman Donald Trump/Senator Ted Cruz: 51.1% 285
Former SoS Hillary Clinton/HUD Secretary Julian Castro: 48.3% 253


(I seriously doubt some aspects of the map but ey, close)

[I support Sanders]

It's really hard to see Trump winning a general election. The  best case scenario for Trump against Clinton would be 272-266, with him winning Iowa, Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Virginia: http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/qjlrE.png

[The Free North]

I really doubt the public face of the birther conspiracy will do any better with blacks than the Generic R.

Trump will dominate NH and VA. I posted my map yesterday already.

What's Trump appeal in NH and VA?

Strongly disagree. He has a great relationship with the blacks, just ask him about it.

[NeverAgain]

271-267

The Donald has a great relationship with Hispanics.

I don't see Trump losing NY or IL. They both have a strong Latino population, and a real self-deporting attitude. Hillary would win KY, WV, and AR. VT is a tossup due to Trump's strong Vermontian roots. I'd say a close race is looking more like this -

WY is pure tossup this early.

[Kingpoleon]

282: Businessman Donald Trump(R-NY)/Sen. Joni Ernst(R-IA) - 50.0%
256: Fmr. Sec. & Sen. Hillary Clinton(D-NY)/Mayor Eric Garcetti(D-CA)  - 47.4%
Other: 2.5%

Trump is almost rolled out in the first general debate as Clinton parries nearly every thrust and is confident the entire time. He makes an amazing closing statement in which he demands Hillary Clinton either protect the status quo hurting "smart, everyday Americans - Hispanic, black or white - rich or poor - man or woman" or concede the race to a candidate who will "get things done to better everyone." This rebounds the debate into a narrow Clinton victory[48-40-10]. Trump wounds her on economics with a sound and small constant attack or fake[54-40-5]. On foreign policy, Trump's best line is in the last fifteen minutes. He asks Hillary of she can defend the Iraq War. She answers no, and he says, "Neither can I." Will you defend Obama's "pragmatic" policies which have left us hurting? No. "I can to other nations." Trump replies. "How, then can you defend America around the world from evil, evil people like Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-Un? You can't." [49-40-5]. Joni Ernst successfully rallies America and remains positive against Garcetti[53-40-6], but ends up bettering him with what she calls "The Broad Vision of America."

With unemployment at 5.8% and Obama's approval rating at 44-53, the advertising campaigns mostly focus on positive forces. Vice President Joe Biden and Howard Dean are the main high points of the Democratic Convention while Jim Webb, John Kasich and Condoleeza Rice light up and invigorate the Republican Convention.

Clinton easily differentiates from Obama except on foreign policy, but Illinois is decided by less than eight points. Mark Kirk triumphs over Duckworth 49.5%-48.9%, and Kelly Ayotte wins 49.9%-48.0%. Bennett is defeated by Josh Penry while Catherine Masto narrowly beats Brian Krolicki.

[Cyrusman]

My current read on this election is that if Trump is the nominee, his only real chance of winning (and this applies to some extent to other GOP nominees, as well) is either some catastrophic foreign event (i.e. Iran bombing Israel, discovered with nukes) or a recession.  Nonetheless, it's not completely impossible for these things to happen, so a Trump victory is possible.

My question is:  what would the electoral map look like for such a circumstance?

Trump's appeal among white college graduates (as well as Hispanics) seems to be well below average for a Republican, while he appears to do quite strong among working-class whites and might overperform a generic Republican with blacks. 

Well you were pretty close with your prediction!

My thought is a narrow Trump win would look like the 2012 map plus the following states:
-Iowa
-Ohio
-Pennsylvania

But this would only get Trump to 250 electoral votes.  He would have to win at least 2 of {Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Virginia, Florida}.  I'm assuming that Trump is hopeless in NM/CO/NV because of Hispanics and college-educated whites (for Colorado). 

Within the five states I mentioned, which two would be most likely to flip?  Also (sorry, TNVolunteer), would NH have any chance of flipping under Trump?

[morgankingsley]

This thread is a bit of wow

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

It's cute how we all thought debates would matter.

[bagelman]

It's cute how we all thought debates would matter.

They did in a small way, we just didn't realize how Trump won them.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HJ9FdRaTGEo

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

It's cute how we all thought debates would matter.

They did in a small way, we just didn't realize how Trump won them.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HJ9FdRaTGEo

This is absolutely fascinating, and brings into sharp relief just how unlikable Hillary seemed, and how much of her debate prep was a gross miscalculation. There was a misogynistic assumption that a female candidate had to be unemotional, stick to facts and policy, and smile, smile, smile to be taken seriously.

Female Donald Trump comes across as a feisty crusader speaking truth to power, which is exactly how those who embraced him were inclined to see him. Of course, first of all, it's not Donald Trump, second of all, what comes across as thuggish and predatory from a man looks heroic coming from a woman, and it's still the same unhinged, verbal diarrhea, just in a nicer package.

That was the frustrating thing about these debates. I saw Hillary blow Trump out of the water on substance, but coming across as smug, smarmy, and fake in the process. I always though, if she were a man we wouldn't have such a negative reaction. This play challenges that assumption. Hillary came across as smug, smarmy, and fake because she's not a people person, and forcing her to somehow be more personable always backfired.

Still, the debates were a Rorschach test. You saw what you were predisposed to see. They didn't seem to move the needle much in either direction.

[Plankton5165]

282: Businessman Donald Trump(R-NY)/Sen. Joni Ernst(R-IA) - 50.0%
256: Fmr. Sec. & Sen. Hillary Clinton(D-NY)/Mayor Eric Garcetti(D-CA)  - 47.4%
Other: 2.5%

Trump is almost rolled out in the first general debate as Clinton parries nearly every thrust and is confident the entire time. He makes an amazing closing statement in which he demands Hillary Clinton either protect the status quo hurting "smart, everyday Americans - Hispanic, black or white - rich or poor - man or woman" or concede the race to a candidate who will "get things done to better everyone." This rebounds the debate into a narrow Clinton victory[48-40-10]. Trump wounds her on economics with a sound and small constant attack or fake[54-40-5]. On foreign policy, Trump's best line is in the last fifteen minutes. He asks Hillary of she can defend the Iraq War. She answers no, and he says, "Neither can I." Will you defend Obama's "pragmatic" policies which have left us hurting? No. "I can to other nations." Trump replies. "How, then can you defend America around the world from evil, evil people like Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-Un? You can't." [49-40-5]. Joni Ernst successfully rallies America and remains positive against Garcetti[53-40-6], but ends up bettering him with what she calls "The Broad Vision of America."

With unemployment at 5.8% and Obama's approval rating at 44-53, the advertising campaigns mostly focus on positive forces. Vice President Joe Biden and Howard Dean are the main high points of the Democratic Convention while Jim Webb, John Kasich and Condoleeza Rice light up and invigorate the Republican Convention.

Clinton easily differentiates from Obama except on foreign policy, but Illinois is decided by less than eight points. Mark Kirk triumphs over Duckworth 49.5%-48.9%, and Kelly Ayotte wins 49.9%-48.0%. Bennett is defeated by Josh Penry while Catherine Masto narrowly beats Brian Krolicki.

Good job! But Clinton won VA and Trump won ME-02.

[538Electoral]

This is what a somewhat narrow victory for Trump could look like.

[morgankingsley]

This is what a somewhat narrow victory for Trump could look like.

I can't see any differences

[538Electoral]

This is what a somewhat narrow victory for Trump could look like.

I can't see any differences

That's the joke. I simply decided to post the 2016 electoral map long after the fact.