Canada 2006 (23rd Jan)

[minionofmidas]

electionprediction.com has their prediction as surprisingly close: CPC 108, LPC 93, BQ 58, NDP 23, Other 1, Too Close 25.

Both the CPC and NDP will probably do better than that. 

Their final(?) prediction is CPC 118, grits 104, BQ 56, NDP 29, André Arthur 1.
Liberals over 100 seats? No. I don't think so.

Time to eat my words ... myam. Delicious.

[Hatman 🍁]

I watching CBC on CSPAN, and they mentioned that in 1993, the Conservative Party was reduced to two seats.  I looked it up on Wikipedia, and I saw the election, but still two seats.  TWO SEATS!!!  Maybe I'm just a simplistic American, but can someone explain this to me?

The Reform Party under Preston Manning basically sucked off all of the PC's support.  It wasn't that the right wing of Canada got only two seats, it was just the PC (to whom Brian Mulroney did a rather large disservice).

Thanks.  If the whole Right only got two seats that would have been really amazing.  I have another question too, on CBC, they keep mentioning Senators, what is this title?

Canada has senators just like America, but they're appointed by the federal government (kind of like judges), not elected.  Stephen Harper wants to make them elected (probably because they currently strongly favor the Liberals, but never mind that).

The Reformatoryalliance has always supported and elected Senate

[Jens]

Fascinating result. It seems like the Canadian parties especially BQ will have to learn the finer arts of coorporation. It's always easy to be popular if you don't have to take responsibilty for anything.

Just a pity that there is no CP - NDP majority. A change to a proportional system and removal of the archaic FPTP would remove the gross overrepresentation of BQ. 50% extra mandates

And the result if a proportional system was used


CP: 113 (-11) (+14)
Lib: 94 (-9) (-36)
NDP: 54 (+25) (+35)
BQ: 32 (- 19) (-22)
Green: 14 (+14) (+14)
Ind: 1 (-) (-)

first () current election, second () previous election
A sure centre-left majority and a BQ without importance

The Greens would actually hold the decisive mandates and CP would probably not be able to form a govenment.

[Beet]

The SES poll was amazing! I can't remember the last time I saw a poll with such precision and accuracy.

Final SES Numbers

CPC 36.4%
Lib 30.1%
NDP 17.4%
BQ 10.6%

Election Night Results

CPC 36.2%
Lib 30.2%
NDP 17.5%
BQ 10.5%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Now that is impressive...

[© tweed]

Martin Resigns

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Harper has about six months of safety IMO; the Grits will be in effect leaderless for most of that time, and neither the Bloc or NDP will want new elections ('cos voters don't like having too many elections in one year... as such the NDP won't want to blow their gains and the Bloc won't want to lose even more seats to the Tories). IIRC the Liberals also have financing problems.

[ATFFL]

The SES poll was amazing! I can't remember the last time I saw a poll with such precision and accuracy.

Final SES Numbers

CPC 36.4%
Lib 30.1%
NDP 17.4%
BQ 10.6%

Election Night Results

CPC 36.2%
Lib 30.2%
NDP 17.5%
BQ 10.5%

That is scary.  Just hope they do not go all Zogby on us and think their numbers create reality.

I agree that we will not see an election in the next 6 months.  Probably not until next year, at the earliest.  The Bloc may be more willing to cooperate since they do not want to risk the loss of more seats and lack the position to push for another referendum, something the Cons are unlikely to grant.  They may want to play nice with the CPC and try and woo the majority parties newly minted supporters.  The Bloc will need to get them back in the future.  The best way to grab them might be to play nice with the Cons and show their supporters they can vote Bloc and still support the Conservatives.  This might be too long term thinking for them, though.

The big question for the next few months: How ugly does the Lib leadership election get?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That is scary.  Just hope they do not go all Zogby on us and think their numbers create reality.

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Sounds about right; if Harper can make it to 2008 he'll have done very well...
O/c the big question is whether he's a Diefenbaker or a Clark... looking at media stuff, the general assumption is very much the latter. Not sure myself...

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...if they had any brains they'd be thinking that
Harper will need them on most votes I think... he'll actually need the Dippers on some other stuff (unless he decides to piss off his Western ex-Reformist base...) o/c.

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Two words:

"Michael Ignatieff"

[Siege40]

Perhaps the NDP will grow a brain and push for PR FIRST! Election reform I believe is as desperately needed as Government reform.

Siege

[Jens]

Perhaps the NDP will grow a brain and push for PR FIRST! Election reform I believe is as desperately needed as Government reform.

Siege

As long as the 3 numerically largest parties benefits so heavily from FPTP, it is rather unlikely. NDP's situation is a bit like the LD in GB. They get around half the mandates they would have been entitled to with a PR-system. The funny thing is that a PR-system would have secured a Liberal government supported  by the Greens and NDP

[Huckleberry Finn]

Is this Harper a good speaker/performer or charismatic? I have seen him only few times on TV, but he seems to be fairly cold and unsympathetic guy. Look his eys!!! I think I see him like I think leftist people see conservative politicians generally and I am a conservative myself. What hell is happening to me?!?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The funny thing is that a PR-system would have secured a Liberal government supported  by the Greens and NDP

No chance of either supporting a Liberal government after the stuff that's been going on over the past few years... unless they like the idea of electoral suicide.
The Canadian Greenies aren't left wing anyway.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is this Harper a good speaker/performer or charismatic?

No

[Jens]

The funny thing is that a PR-system would have secured a Liberal government supported  by the Greens and NDP

No chance of either supporting a Liberal government after the stuff that's been going on over the past few years... unless they like the idea of electoral suicide.
The Canadian Greenies aren't left wing anyway.

how would you place them then?

And no matter what has happened, NPD have an intrest in gaining influence - and with an electoral reform, the Liberals will not easily be able to gaining a sole majority. Knowing that you are forced to coorperate makes you more humble

Another thing - "Electoral suicide" is less likely in a PR-system. A party like NDP has core voters that would abandon the party no matter what. Losing the swing votes won't result in the waste of many core votes

[Gabu]

Is this Harper a good speaker/performer or charismatic? I have seen him only few times on TV, but he seems to be fairly cold and unsympathetic guy. Look his eys!!! I think I see him like I think leftist people see conservative politicians generally and I am a conservative myself. What hell is happening to me?!?

Look at my signature to see what I think of him.  He's one of the most uninspiring politicians I've seen yet.

[© tweed]

How that Martin's resigned, who will be the next liberal leader?

[Gabu]

How that Martin's resigned, who will be the next liberal leader?

I don't really know.  I'm personally hoping it'll be Keith Martin or Belinda Stronach or someone like that, but I have no idea who actually is a serious contender.

[Jake]

how would you place them then?

Rather right wing economically IIRC.

[Hatman 🍁]

How that Martin's resigned, who will be the next liberal leader?

I don't really know.  I'm personally hoping it'll be Keith Martin or Belinda Stronach or someone like that, but I have no idea who actually is a serious contender.

Belinda would be good, but Keith Martin is a sh!t bag. What scares me is people are throwing Bob Rae's name around. It might not be bad, the NDP would be able to attack him and once and for all show (in Ontario) that Bob Rae and the new NDP are two different things.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is Bob Rae even a Liberal? IIRC the only reason why he made his public break with the federal NDP a few years ago was down to McDonough's policies on the Middle East. From the noises he made a few years ago, he'd only re-enter politics if there was another referendum in Quebec... and the 42% won by le Bloc makes that unlikely...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

how would you place them then?

They're quite rightwing economically; the current leader is an ex-Tory. IIRC he purged the party of most of it's lefties a while ago.

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Not really. Short-term influence resulting in another electoral meltdown isn't really in their interest.

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Martin led a minority government before this election and he certainly wasn't humble.

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Not so. Look at what % they polled in 1993.

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...but propping up Martin after *this* would be extremely unpopular with the NDP's core voters. And most voters; the electorate clearly wanted Martin out.

[minionofmidas]

Create a Canada 2007 thread and sticky it maybe?

[minionofmidas]

And the result if a proportional system was used


CP: 113 (-11) (+14)
Lib: 94 (-9) (-36)
NDP: 54 (+25) (+35)
BQ: 32 (- 19) (-22)
Green: 14 (+14) (+14)
Ind: 1 (-) (-)

Well, the exact result would depend on the exact method used...
Since in Canada, the overrepresentation of certain regions - Prince Edward Island, the Maritimes in general, the Territories, Northern Ontario... - seems to be politically intended, I think a pr system would likely include this factor too. Only way to do that with pr is having constituencies with fixed no.s of seats.
I thought of the following - provinces of now under 20 ridings become multi-member constituencies, using D'Hondt.
The territories become one 3-member constituency.
Québec, Ontario, Alberta and B.C. are split into several constituencies of 20 seats max. (see below)
Results...

Newfoundland (change on reality, not on last election)
Liberal 3 (-1)
Tory 3
NDP 1 (+1)

Nova Scotia
Liberal 4 (-2)
NDP 4 (+2)
Tory 3

Prince Edward Island
Liberal 3 (-1)
Tory 1 (+1)

New Brunswick
Liberal 4 (-2)
Tory 4 (+1)
NDP 2 (+1)

Manitoba
Tory 6 (-2)
Liberal 4 (+1)
NDP 4 (+1)

Saskatchewan
Tory 8 (-4)
NDP 3 (+3)
Liberal 3 (+1)

Territories
Liberal 1 (-1)
NDP 1
Tory 1 (+1)

Haven't calculated the results for the major provinces yet - as unlike the above it actually looks like work - but I have spent the last hour or so working out what the constituencies might be. I started out with the divisions on electionprediction but had to greatly adapt these.

Québec
ep has Montréal - 22, North of St Lawrence - 18, South of St Lawrence - 25, North - 10.
The North vs North of St Lawrence distinction doesn't make much geographical sense. Montréal includes Laval, and a constituency only partly in Laval. Ignoring these -
Montréal - 18, North - 32, South - 25.
I split N and S along East-West lines. NE - 17 includes Québec, Trois Rivières, the Jonquière etc area, and stretches into the northeastern outskirts of Montréal suburbia (for nice-looking boundaries. I care about nice-looking boundaries. ). NW - 15 includes the furthermost North, the Outaouais, most of the left bank Montréal suburbia, and Laval. SE - 13 is basically the Sherbrooke area and east. SW - 12 is mostly in the right bank Montréal suburbia but extends to Lake Memphremagog.

Ontario
ep has - Metro Toronto 22, the 905 - 32, Eastern - 17, Northern - 10, Southwestern - 22, and Simcoe - 3. They probably just didn't know where to place the Simcoe area, which is where SW, E, N, and the 905 meet. In the end I placed it with SW. I also noticed that the constituency of Pickering-Scarborough East is partly in Toronto, and moved it there, giving
Metro Toronto 23, 905 - 31, Eastern - 17, Northern - 10, Southwestern - 25.
I had to split Toronto, 905, and SW.
Originally I thought of splitting Toronto east-west, but in the end I came up with an Inner Toronto - 10 and a Scarborough - York - Etobicoke - 13 constituency (also includes Willowdale.) The one I'm graphically unhappy about is Don Valley East (with inner Toronto), but that couldn't be well helped
The 905 I ended up splitting 3 ways: One 11-member constituency east and north of Toronto (Call it...oh whatever... call it Newmarket-Oshawa or something. Or replace Newmarket with something more suitable. I don't care. Markham-Oshawa?) One 12-member constituency west and northwest of Toronto - call it Mississauga-Brampton, and one 8-member constituency Hamilton-Niagara.
The SW I split north-south, into a 14-member constituency London-Windsor, and an 11-member constituency, Simcoe-Kitchener-Lake Huron or whatever.
(So, final plan:
Eastern - 17
Inner Toronto - 10
Scarborough-York-Etobicoke - 13
xy-Oshawa - 11
Mississauga-Brampton - 12
Hamilton-Niagara - 8
London-Windsor - 14
Simcoe-Kitchener-Lake Huron 11
Northern - 10

Alberta is easy -
Edmonton - 8
Calgary  - 8
rural - 12

BC
electionprediction has Greater Vancouver & Lower Mainland 21, Interior & North 9, Vancouver Island 6. I'd noticed earlier that the listing of constituencies in GV&LM is not purely alphabetical, it seemed to be Vancouver City (5) - Inner Suburbs ( - Outer Suburbs (4) - Lower Mainland (4). I've checked the maps now though, and it's not. The Inner-Outer distinction isn't there, West Vancouver etc is just listed in the wrong place.
So I went with
Greater Vancouver - 17
Interior & Lower Mainland - 13 (I'm talking about Abbotsford etc here, in case you're confused)
Vancouver Island - 6

Now...time to do some maths...

[minionofmidas]

Montréal
Liberal 7 (-4)
Bloc 6 (-1)
Tory 3 (+3)
NDP 1 (+1)
Green 1 (+1)
The Green seat was the 18th, the 19th would have been the NDP's second.

Québec Nord-Ouest
Bloc 8 (-4)
Liberal 3 (+1)
Tory 3 (+2)
NDP 1 (+1)

Québec Nord-Est
Bloc 8 (-3)
Tory 6 (+1)
Liberal 2 (+2)
NDP 1 (+1)
i 0 (-1) ... not even if you sum all the independents, or all the others except the Greens ... all the others including the Greens would take a seat off the Liberals though. The Liberals came second in exactly one riding across this area, Chicoutimi-Le Fjord.

Québec Sud-Est
Bloc 6 (-3)
Tory 5 (+1)
Liberal 2 (+2)
...and not a single one here...

Québec Sud-Ouest
Bloc 6 (-6)
Tory 3 (+3)
Liberal 2 (+2)
NDP 1 (+1)