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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  SC: PPP: Clinton trails all, Carson best, Kasich worst
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Author Topic: SC: PPP: Clinton trails all, Carson best, Kasich worst  (Read 2934 times)
Dr. RI
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« on: November 17, 2015, 11:24:37 am »

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_SC_111715.pdf

Carson 51, Clinton 39
Bush 47, Clinton 41
Trump 47, Clinton 42
Rubio 47, Clinton 42
Huckabee 47, Clinton 43
Fiorina 45, Clinton 41
Cruz 46, Clinton 43
Kasich 43, Clinton 41

Carson with 14% of black vote.
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Hydera
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« Reply #1 on: November 17, 2015, 11:43:07 am »

something something sanders would win all 50 states just by campaigning on socialism!!
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King
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« Reply #2 on: November 17, 2015, 12:00:23 pm »

lol KKKa$ick
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Maxwell
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« Reply #3 on: November 17, 2015, 12:05:19 pm »

With the exception of Carson (and even that's only somewhat narrowly), all of these GOPers are deeply under performing.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4 on: November 17, 2015, 12:06:01 pm »

With the possible exception of Carson, all Republicans win South Carolina by margins too close to have a real chance nationwide. If the 2008 and 2012 elections indicate anything, it is that the Republican nominee must win South Carolina by at least 12% to have a real chance of winning  the  Presidency.

...PPP does a national poll this week, so our best hope for a significant and credible poll of states is by Quinnipiac.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5 on: November 17, 2015, 12:10:27 pm »

lol KKKa$ick

Let's stop this juvenile distortion of names. Maybe it is OK if there is something relevant... but so far as I can tell, Governor Kasich has nothing to do with the KKK. OK, Karl Rove really is a rogue (thus "Karl Rogue") and David Duke really was a Klan leader and still believes much the same stuff (thus "David DuKKKe").

By so distorting a name you invite an inexcusable smear such as "Hitlery" which I have seen.
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #6 on: November 17, 2015, 12:25:33 pm »

Amusingly, Trump is the candidate who does the best with "other" (Hispanics, Asians, etc.)

With the exception of Carson (and even that's only somewhat narrowly), all of these GOPers are deeply under performing.

Not really, it's a Romney +8 sample (SC was Romney +10 IRL), so only Huckabee/Fiorina/Cruz/Kasich are significantly underperforming.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #7 on: November 17, 2015, 12:30:42 pm »

Amusingly, Trump is the candidate who does the best with "other" (Hispanics, Asians, etc.)

With the exception of Carson (and even that's only somewhat narrowly), all of these GOPers are deeply under performing.

Not really, it's a Romney +8 sample (SC was Romney +10 IRL), so only Huckabee/Fiorina/Cruz/Kasich are significantly underperforming.

Fair enough.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #8 on: November 17, 2015, 12:33:12 pm »

vs Sanders

Bush 48
Sanders 35

Carson 51
Sanders 33

Cruz 45
Sanders 35

Rubio 46
Sanders 33

Trump 48
Sanders 38
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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #9 on: November 17, 2015, 12:37:04 pm »

Favorability Ratings
Ben Carson: 47-33 (+14)
Marco Rubio: 38-35 (+3)
Ted Cruz: 33-39 (-6)
Mike Huckabee 35-41 (-6)
Carly Fiorina: 30-39 (-9)
Donald Trump: 36-54 (-18)
John Kasich: 18-37 (-19)
Hillary Clinton: 37-57 (-20)
Jeb Bush: 27-55 (-28)
Bernie Sanders: 23-55 (-32)

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IA less likely to flip than OH/TX/FL/GA/NC/AZ
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« Reply #10 on: November 17, 2015, 02:21:40 pm »

Pretty bad numbers for the GOP. Could be an outlier, though. Polling in solidly Red/Blue states always makes them look closer than they really are...
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Nyvin
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« Reply #11 on: November 17, 2015, 04:28:57 pm »

I guess I'm kinda surprised at Carson's numbers still being so much higher than others.

Other than him though, the rest of the GOP's numbers are rather poor.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #12 on: November 17, 2015, 05:01:40 pm »

Pretty bad numbers for the GOP. Could be an outlier, though. Polling in solidly Red/Blue states always makes them look closer than they really are...
Well it's still a year before the election...
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The Unbearable Inevitability of Nevada going Democratic
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« Reply #13 on: November 17, 2015, 05:15:05 pm »

I seem to remember early polls in South Carolina underestimating Republicans, similar to how early polls in Connecticut underestimate Democrats. I'd be surprised if the Democrats get any more than 45% in South Carolina.
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #14 on: November 17, 2015, 06:53:24 pm »

I seem to remember early polls in South Carolina underestimating Republicans, similar to how early polls in Connecticut underestimate Democrats. I'd be surprised if the Democrats get any more than 45% in South Carolina.

Yes, I remember an early press release from the Obama 2012 campaign about how they were going to flip South Carolina and Arizona.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #15 on: November 18, 2015, 12:06:49 am »

States like South Carolina, Michigan, Minnesota, etc will return to form once we actually get our two candidates.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #16 on: November 18, 2015, 03:17:43 am »

Good, SC is now blue on the poll page.

Now someone please poll KY and AZ a couple times.

It's crazy that these states are still a "tossup" on the Atlas poll page.
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« Reply #17 on: November 18, 2015, 03:19:52 am »

Good, SC is now blue on the poll page.

SC had been "Strong Republican" before this poll was entered, now it's "Lean Republican". As for KY and AZ: I agree.
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BetoBro
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« Reply #18 on: November 18, 2015, 05:18:58 am »

Amusingly, Trump is the candidate who does the best with "other" (Hispanics, Asians, etc.)

With the exception of Carson (and even that's only somewhat narrowly), all of these GOPers are deeply under performing.

Not really, it's a Romney +8 sample (SC was Romney +10 IRL), so only Huckabee/Fiorina/Cruz/Kasich are significantly underperforming.

If Huckabee and Cruz are underperforming in South Carolina of all states, maybe that should be the writing on the wall for them, more so Huckabee than Cruz though. Funny how Kasich, the candidate that looked good on paper, is not doing so well on paper.
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EliteLX
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« Reply #19 on: November 18, 2015, 07:56:54 am »
« Edited: November 18, 2015, 08:01:12 am by EliteLX »

Good, SC is now blue on the poll page.

SC had been "Strong Republican" before this poll was entered, now it's "Lean Republican". As for KY and AZ: I agree.

A +10 lead is not "Lean" R. This sample is -2 Romney sample from his real 2012 #'s as well. Come September, October, ... 2016 there is not a chance on God's green earth a 'pubs max lead in South Carolina is 3%, 5%, .etc.

2016, a more polished GOP candidate will replicate the 2012 SC numbers at absolute worst, probably turning out GOP numbers even more.
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Cruzcrew
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« Reply #20 on: November 18, 2015, 04:23:45 pm »

Amusingly, Trump is the candidate who does the best with "other" (Hispanics, Asians, etc.)

With the exception of Carson (and even that's only somewhat narrowly), all of these GOPers are deeply under performing.

Not really, it's a Romney +8 sample (SC was Romney +10 IRL), so only Huckabee/Fiorina/Cruz/Kasich are significantly underperforming.

If Huckabee and Cruz are underperforming in South Carolina of all states, maybe that should be the writing on the wall for them, more so Huckabee than Cruz though. Funny how Kasich, the candidate that looked good on paper, is not doing so well on paper.

Cruz is winning Florida by the same margin and colorado by a much greater margin than south carolina oddly. I wouldn't trust polling yet to determine whether to end ones candidacy if Florida and colorado are more red than south carolina (polling wise) so far.
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Fmr. Pres. Griff
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« Reply #21 on: November 20, 2015, 06:59:47 am »

It's hilarious to watch all of these white conservatives across the country (but especially in the South) pretend and/or try to prove they're not racist by disproportionately lining up behind literally the dumbest GOP candidate just because he's black. The real question is whether this will wind up being the biggest Bradley Effect ever in the primaries or whether they'll swallow their hate and actually vote for the guy to prove they haven't been dog-whistlin' to hell and back these past eight years.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #22 on: November 20, 2015, 12:44:27 pm »

South Carolina, like Georgia is heavily polarized on racial identity at the polls. South Carolina goes to the Democrat only in a landslide which shows that a significant part of the Southern white electorate has gone back to voting Democratic.  Any significant Democratic poaching of Southern white voters flips some states that haven't gone for any Democratic nominee since the 1990s.

If Hillary Clinton is winning South Carolina, she is likely winning Texas as well.

No, I am not calling a 2016 landslide for Democrats. There is more to the Democratic losses in the Mountain and Deep South than Barack Obama.
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